How do voters react when their party forms a coalition they dislike?

Abstract

While coalitions are conventionally seen as opportunities for parties to realise their policy preferences or to secure their control over political offices, recent studies show that citizens have preferences for coalitions which influence their vote choice. However, these studies do not consider how party and coalition preferences influence each other. This study uses panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study from the 2009, 2013 and 2017 German elections to determine whether voters punish the party for which they voted for being in a coalition they dislike or, alternatively, whether they become more supportive of that coalition. We find weak evidence for the former but strong evidence for the latter.     

Situational deterrence and claim padding: results from a randomized field experiment

While it is generally argued that threats of legal sanctions are more effective with offenders involved in economic crimes than with delinquents committing more conventional crimes, such an affirmation rests on weak empirical evidence. Also, most studies supporting this proposition were conducted with non-experimental designs, thus, undermining the interval validity of the results. On the other hand, studies base their predictions on individual factors and do not incorporate contextual factors. To overcome those limitations, a randomized field experiment was implemented in four insurance companies to incorporate contextual factors into the dynamics of deterrence. This study assessed the effect of a written threat (a deterrent letter reminding insured persons of the punishment for insurance fraud) on claim padding behaviours of insured persons filing claims for residential theft. A deterrent-letter project was implemented in four insurance companies, with claims randomly assigned to the experimental or the control group. Cases belonging to the control group were managed as usual, while individuals in the experimental group received the written threat. The experimental design made sure that the deterrent stimulus was exactly delivered to the insured persons when they had the opportunity to exaggerate the value of their claims. Findings demonstrate that claimants in the experimental group were less likely to pad their claims than were those in the control group. The letter was effective, regardless of the means of delivery. In conclusion, the administration of a written threat at the moment of criminal opportunity appears to be an effective strategy for preventing economic crimes.

The Mobility of Stolen Guns in Quebec

Research on crime guns has traditionally focused on the time-to-crime measure. This study shifts the focus to guns that entered the illegal firearm market through thefts. This subset of guns allows us to examine the same process and objective underlying the time-to-crime measure—that being the recovery process. Two new measures are proposed. The first, time-to-find, assesses the time span between a gun’s theft and seizure by police. The second, distance-to-recovery, introduces a spatial dimension to the crime gun repertoire by measuring the distance a firearm travels between its points of theft and seizure. Using a mix of national (Canada) and provincial (Quebec) data on crime guns, this study’s findings show that these two new measures are tapping into a unique phenomenon: whereas time-to-crime accounts for a gun’s complete lifecycle, time-to-find and distance-to-recovery reflect a gun’s criminal lifecycle. At the multivariate level, the most influential factor explaining both time-to-find and distance-to-recovery is the registration status of the gun. Non-registered crime guns took longer to find and traveled lengthier distances between the moments and points of theft and seizure. Our explanation for this is that non-registered guns may be stolen from sources that are more problematic to begin with and, thus, result in the gun’s transition toward a segment of the illegal market that is also more problematic and in demand than the pool of firearms represented by registered guns. This would embed the firearm more deeply into the illegal market, making it more difficult to retrieve and more likely to be dispersed across a wider geographical plane than guns which are registered to begin with.     

The impact of motivational and contextual factors on turnout in first- and second-order elections

Based on voter survey from European election study 2009, we examine the impact of one individual-level motivational factor, i.e. interest in politics, and its interactions with institutional and contextual factors such as compulsory voting, electoral competition and the number of parties on participation in 2009 EP elections and previous national elections. The results show that political interest is more closely connected to turnout in second-order elections which are usually considered less salient. Correspondingly, also the contingent effect of compulsory voting and competition is more evident in EP elections. While compulsory voting substantially decreases the turnout gap between the most and least politically attentive voters in both types of elections, the moderating effect of competitiveness is found only in EP elections.     

Direct presidential elections: a world summary

This paper first examines the frequency of direct presidential elections among the 170 countries of the world with a working, directly elected parliament. We find that there is a directly elected president in more than half of the countries and in about two-thirds of the republics. Former British colonies are less likely to hold direct presidential elections, which are otherwise very popular in North and South America and Africa. We then examine the kind of electoral formula that is used for the election of presidents. Most elections are held under the majority rule, most of the time under the majority runoff procedure. The majority rule is clearly predominant in Europe and Africa, and is unpopular in North America. Finally, no relationship is observed between the level of economic development or of democracy and the use of direct presidential elections or the choice of an electoral formula.     

Time-of-voting decision and susceptibility to campaign effects

There is mounting evidence that election campaigns matter. There are also reasons to expect interpersonal heterogeneity in the susceptibility to campaign influence. Time-of-voting decision has been suggested as a key mediating variable for campaign effects. However, there is no persuasive empirical evidence to substantiate the claim that people who decide during campaigns actually respond to campaign events or campaign-specific information.This study incorporates time of decision into dynamic models of campaign effects in order to test whether there is a significant interaction effect between time of decision and campaign persuasion. In sum, the vote intentions of campaign deciders are indeed more volatile because they respond to actual campaign events and coverage, not because they fluctuate haphazardly. People who say they decided before the campaign are, reassuringly, not influenced by campaigns.     

Measuring Party Identification: Britain, Canada, and the United States

The article proposes an empirically based reflection on how to measure party identification cross nationally, using data from the 1997 Canadian Election Study, the 1997 British Election Study, and the 1996 American National Election Study. These studies included both traditional national questions and a new common one, which allows for an assessment of the effects of question wording on the distribution and correlates of party identification. We show that the distribution of party identification is strongly affected by question wording and that the relationship between party identification and variables such as party and leader ratings, and voting behavior does not quite conform to theoretical expectations. We point out problems in the wording of party identification questions and propose an alternative formulation.