Mixed Logit Models for Multiparty Elections

Mixed logit (MXL) is a general discrete choice model thus farunexamined in the study of multicandidate and multiparty elections.Mixed logit assumes that the unobserved portions of utilityare a mixture of an IID extreme value term and another multivariatedistribution selected by the researcher. This general specificationallows MXL to avoid imposing the independence of irrelevantalternatives (IIA) property on the choice probabilities. Further,MXL is a flexible tool for examining heterogeneity in voterbehavior through random-coefficients specifications. MXL isa more general discrete choice model than multinomial probit(MNP) in several respects, and can be applied to a wider varietyof questions about voting behavior than MNP. An empirical exampleusing data from the 1987 British General Election demonstratesthe utility of MXL in the study of multicandidate and multipartyelections.     

The Politics and Reality of Environmental Justice: A History and Considerations for Public Administrators and Policy Makers

This article provides a short history of the environmental justice movement in the United States and discusses four dominant problems in environmental justice discourse. It also will discuss three other aspects of the environmental discourse: weak empirical research; the failure to recognize the distinction between hazard and risk; and the possibility that environmental justice is more about fear, blame, procedural inclusion, and power politics than it is about public health in minority and low–income communities. More rational mechanisms for managing the issue would better serve the ideal of democracy, giving society a better chance of solving public health problems in minority and low–income communities.     

Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different from Mainstream Parties? The Causes and the Electoral Consequences of Western European Parties' Policy Shifts, 1976–1998

Do “niche” parties—such as Communist, Green, and extreme nationalist parties—adjust their policies in response to shifts in public opinion? Would such policy responsiveness enhance these parties' electoral support? We report the results of statistical analyses of the relationship between parties' policy positions, voters' policy preferences, and election outcomes in eight Western European democracies from 1976 to 1998 that suggest that the answer to both questions is no . Specifically, we find no evidence that niche parties responded to shifts in public opinion, while mainstream parties displayed consistent tendencies to respond to public opinion shifts. Furthermore, we find that in situations where niche parties moderated their policy positions they were systematically punished at the polls (a result consistent with the hypothesis that such parties represent extreme or noncentrist ideological clienteles), while mainstream parties did not pay similar electoral penalties. Our findings have important implications for political representation, for spatial models of elections, and for political parties' election strategies.     

‘A confession of ignorance’: deaths from old age and deciphering cause-of-death statistics in Scotland, 1855–1949

A large amount of the research undertaken in an attempt to discover the reasons underlying the late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century mortality decline in Britain has relied on the statistics published by the Registrars General. The processes by which individual causes of death are recorded and then processed in order to create the statistics are not, however, well understood. In this article, the authors build on previous work to piece together a time series of causes of death for Scotland, which removes many of the discontinuities encountered in the published statistics that result from the Registrar General deciding to update the nosology, or classification system, which was being used to compile his figures. Having regrouped individual causes of death to ‘smooth’ the time series, the authors use the new groups to examine the changing causes of death in Scotland for selected age groups, before turning to undertake a detailed examination of mortality amongst those aged 55 or more. The authors find that when deaths from ‘old age’ in the latter age group are separated from other ‘ill-defined’ causes, it becomes obvious that there was a ‘rebranding’ of cause of death. The authors then use individual-level data from two Scottish communities to further dissect the roles played by ‘informants’ and ‘doctors’ in this rebranding, in order to see how these roles may have altered over time and what the consequences might be for one's view of how mortality changed in Scotland between 1855 and 1949. Finally, the authors argue that their findings have important implications for some of historical demography's most prominent theories: the McKeown thesis and the theory of epidemiological transition.     

Analysis of active ricin and castor bean proteins in a ricin preparation, castor bean extract, and surface swabs from a public health investigation

In late February 2008, law enforcement officials in Las Vegas, Nevada, discovered in a hotel room, a copy of The Anarchist Cookbook, suspected castor beans and a "white powder" thought to be a preparation of ricin. Ricin is a deadly toxin from the seed of the castor bean plant (Ricinus communis). The United States regulates the possession, use, and transfer of ricin and it is the only substance considered a warfare agent in both the Chemical and the Biological Weapons Conventions. Six samples obtained from the hotel room were analyzed by laboratories at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention using a panel of biological and mass spectrometric assays. The biological assays (real time-PCR, time resolved fluorescence and cytotoxicity) provided presumptive evidence of active ricin in each of the samples. This initial screen was followed by an in-depth analysis using a novel, state-of-the-art mass spectrometry-based ricin functional assay and high sensitivity tandem mass spectrometry for protein identification. Mass spectrometric analysis positively identified ricin and confirmed that in each of the samples it was enzymatically active. The tandem mass spectrometry analysis used here is the most selective method available to detect ricin toxin. In each sample, ricin was unequivocally identified along with other R. communis plant proteins, including the highly homologous protein RCA120. Although database searches using tandem mass spectra acquired from the samples indicated that additional controlled substances were not present in these samples, the mass spectrometric results did provide extensive detail about the sample contents. To the best of our knowledge following a review of the available literature, this report describes the most detailed analysis of a white powder for a public health or forensic investigation involving ricin.