Who “Wins”? Determining the Party of the Prime Minister

The prime ministership is the preeminent political post in parliamentary democracies. Yet few studies examine PM party choice, perhaps under the assumption that the choice is a simple function of party size. In this article, we argue that key strategic actors and the context in which government negotiations take place can play a critical role in PM party choice. We test our hypotheses using a mixed logit with random coefficients on an original data set comprising PM selection opportunities in 28 European countries. Our methodological approach allows us to incorporate qualitative concerns about heterogeneity and causal complexity into our analysis. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that the largest party is often disadvantaged when it comes to PM party choice, that some presidents play an influential role in choosing the PM, and that the value of being the incumbent depends on one’s performance in office and how the previous government ended.     

基于事故树分析法的幼儿园、小学校车安全研究

校车安全事关国家公共安全,影响着社会的和谐.校车作为方便学生上下学及为繁忙的家长节约接送时间的重要工具应需而生.但由于各种原因,校车安全事故频频发生,尤其多发于幼儿园、小学的年幼孩子中.本文基于事故案例的统计分析,针对校车事故发生的各类原因,运用事故树分析法分析导致校车事故的各层次原因、基本原因集合及重要度.在此基础上,本文探讨校车安全的薄弱环节需要完善的地方,并参考国务院出台的《校车安全管理条例》[1],从安全教育、规范行为和标准、监管力度、经济投入几个方面为我国校车现有安全问题提出科学的、有针对性的防范措施.     

It's a Cultural Thing: Thoughts on a Troubled cia

The CIA has recently been the subject of numerous presidential commissions and Congressional committees concerned either with the details of individual operations or with sweeping reforms in structure and organization. One of the repeated themes in these reports is that the Agency must change its “culture.” This article identifies and offers possible remedies for cultural problems in the two directorates (the Directorate of Intelligence and the Directorate of Operations) and Agency-wide, and argues for enhanced accountability.     

On-line and Memory-based: Revisiting the Relationship Between Candidate Evaluation Processing Models

Reexamining the relationship between the on-line and memory-based information processing models, this study presents a theoretical basis for the co-occurrence of on-line and memory-based processes and proposes a hybrid model. The study empirically tests the hybrid model by employing real-time tracking of participants?? reactions to two candidates in a US presidential primary election debate. The findings confirm an independent, but complementary relationship between on-line and memory-based information processing in an individual??s candidate evaluation and vote choice. The co-occurrence of the two modes applies to an individual??s comparison of candidates as well. The implications of the hybrid model for the functioning of democracy are discussed.     

基于中国-东盟自由贸易区的广西信息产业发展研究

广西信息产业在国家优惠政策支持下取得了跨越发展，现已初具规模和效益；随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立，给广西信息产业的发展提供了更为宽广的平台，但机遇与挑战并存；通过基于中国-东盟自由贸易区的广西信息产业SWOT分析，提出发展对策，以期对广西信息产业的发展提供借鉴。     

Issues management,systems, and rhetoric: exploring the distinction between ethical and legal guidelines at Enron

• Many corporations use legal rather than ethical standards for decision making in issues management. The Enron collapse provides a case example of why legal standards should never be used as a substitute for ethical principles. As we illustrate in this discussion of Enron, seeking loopholes in the law can lead to ethical violations that are ultimately more severe than legal infractions. We use systems theory and rhetorical rationales to discuss the issues management function as the proper location in an organization for ethical decision making and corporate responsibility. Both systems theory and rhetoric support the argument that an organization must be good internally and make decisions from an outside‐in perspective; management at Enron heeded neither idea. This research recommends a deontological approach, based on Kantian norms of moral autonomy and good intention as a basis for ethical issues management, and uses the Enron case for illustration of these principles. We conclude this discussion by offering a matrix simplifying the principles of both ethical and legal decision making based on systems theory and rhetorical approaches to public policy.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

US–China Relations in the Era of Globalization and Terror: a framework for analysis

The coming decade could provide the opportunity for the United States to consolidate stable Sino–American relations and expand US–China cooperation on a wide range of global and regional issues. Such a constructive relationship would not be conflict-free or without competitive aspects, especially in the political and economic realms, nor is its development inevitable. But the United States is not likely to conclude that a strategy of containment toward China is either necessary or feasible. Similarly, China will likely continue to pursue a strategy of seeking cooperative ties with the United States rather than adopting an anti-hegemonist coalition strategy to counter American power and influence. A key factor underlying this assessment is that ‘globalization’ is reshaping the global strategic environment. In this new strategic situation, the interests of the United States and China will limit strategic competition between them and compel closer cooperation to respond to shared strategic threats and challenges. Globalization has led to converging—though by no means identical—national interests in many critical areas and a common interest in maintaining the overall global system of regimes, treaties and organizations governing international economic, political and security relations to the benefit of both countries. This high-level common interest does not preclude sharp differences over specific issues, but it is likely to create pressure on the United States and China to cooperate in many areas to defend, maintain and strengthen the system and to restrain them from pursuing containment or confrontational strategies toward each other.