British technical intelligence and the Soviet intermediate range ballistic missile threat, 1952–60

This article looks at the shifting intricacies of British assessments of the Soviet IRBM threat to the United Kingdom during the 1950s. Based on JIC, Cabinet and Air Ministry records of the period, as well as political memoirs, it looks at the assessments in parallel with the development of the British Blue Streak nuclear ballistic missile programme. This land‐based weapon was eventually cancelled in April 1960 on strategic not cost grounds, too early in this author's opinion.     

A post-residential-treatment follow-up of socially and emotionally deviant adolescents in Israel

Fifty-five emotionally and socially deviant but normally intelligent adolescents who had spent 2–7 years in a children's and apprentice home in Israel were followed up 5–9 years after they had left the institution. Their postresidential social and vocational careers were evaluated by means of personal interviews, home visits, and reports from employers, and it was found that good adjustment was substantially related to family background variables (having lived with biological parents prior to residential placement, mutual positive relationship between parent and child, being first born) as well as to satisfactory behavior and performance in peer group, school, and workshop during residence. Level of intelligence, unrelated to overall adjustment, correlated positively with vocational status and income at followup. On the other hand, length of stay in the apprentice home had no impact on postresidential adaptation to work and society. Fewer than 10% of exinmates expressed retrospectively a negative attitude toward their stay in the institution. The importance of paying more attention to the eventual long-term and enduring impact of family relationship on the residential and postresidential behavior of adolescents is discussed, suggesting a shift of emphasis in evaluating factors involved in institutional treatment. Findings also indicate that later social and vocational success may be fairly predicted from observation of behavior during the stay in the institution.The empirical study reported in this article was supported by a grant from the Australian Women's International Zionist Organisation (WIZO), through the initiative of Mrs. Martha Jacobson, Melbourne, chairman of the board of directors.Received his Ph.D. in Psychology and Special Education from the University of Zurich, Switzerland, in 1954. Main research interests are normal and abnormal child development, high-risk infants, adolescence, and handicapped children.Main research interest is institutional care.     

The human ear: its role in forensic practice

The human ear has much to offer investigators in relation to many areas of forensic practice including forensic pathology, anthropology, identification and facial reconstruction and yet its full potential is often overlooked. This review paper explores current knowledge related to the human ear drawing attention to those situations where the ear could play a valuable role in a forensic investigation.     

The Lawrence Inquiry – Incompetence, Corruption, and Institutional Racism

The inquiry into the murder of black teenager Stephen Lawrence in South London in 1993, which reported earlier this year, documents a catalogue of police incompetence and 'institutional racism'. The report also puts forward a number of far-reaching recommendations, echoing long-standing demands by the black community, for the reform of policing in Britain. Yet, in its approach to 'institutional racism', the report can be seen to have downplayed the need for a critical re-examination of policing policies and priorities at a strategic level. As a result, many of its key recommendations, in such areas as stop and search and the policing of racist crime, may prove ineffective. The government's commitment to 'anti-racism', following the Lawrence report, is also called into question by its subsequent decision to further restrict the rights of defendants and the ability of black people to defend themselves against racist police practices through the criminal justice system.     

An appreciation of Alvey Adee

Alvey Augustus Adee (1842-1924) spent a diplomatic apprenticeship in the American legation at Madrid. In 1877, he entered the State Department in Washington and served there until his death. Adee spent almost four decades as the Second Assistant Secretary of State, the closest the United States has come to having a Permanent Under-Secretary. He managed American diplomacy in crises as well as quieter times, with an unparalleled expertise.     

On collective goods,private wealth,and the core solution of simple games with sidepayments

This essay identifies consequences for the core solution in a class of social decision problems concerning the provision of collective goods (or bads) if the rules are modified to permit sidepayments. In these problems, a kind of formal decision procedure that includes any weighted or unweighted majority rule governs only the decision about collective goods. Each decision about collective goods, however, implies a vector of the agents' endowments of private wealth that can, but need not, vary across the alternatives. Any agent may offer to make sidepayments from this endowment that are contingent on the collective goods decision, but the agent holds preferences that, given any fixed decision about collective goods, strictly increase in the agent's own wealth. The results indicate that the core's response to introducing the possibility of sidepayments depends on whether any agent possesses a veto over the collective goods decision. If no one has a veto, then an outcome belongs to the core of the game with sidepayments only if no sidepayment is made and the same decision about collective goods belongs to the core of the associated game without sidepayments. In this case, introducing the possibility of sidepayments does not bring a new collective goods decision into the core. Indeed, merely adding the possibility of sidepayments can cause the core to vanish. On the other hand, if at least one agent possesses a veto, then introducing sidepayments can (but need not) lead to a new core solution concerning the decision about collective goods. In any such new solution, at least one agent who has a veto — but no one who lacks it — receives a sidepayment.     

Policy analysis through microsimulation: the STATS model

This article gives a nontechnical introduction to a microsimulation model developed by the Social Security Administration to consider the effects of tax and benefit proposals on the economic status of population groups. This model, the Simulated Tax and Transfer System (STATS) model, uses information from a nationally representative survey of households to calculate taxes or benefits for thousands of persons or families, case by case. Then the model aggregates across individual cases to produce estimates for economic and demographic groups of interest to policymakers. Groups are defined by such characteristics as family income, age, sex, and marital status. The article explains the model's microsimulation approach and its emphasis on the economic status of population groups. It describes the procedures for simulating taxes and benefits and then illustrates the use of the model by considering a proposal to change the way Social Security benefits are taxed. The article also discusses the primary data source and the extent to which it limits the types of estimates that the model can produce.     

White Voters and African American Candidates for Congress

The vast majority of African American officeholders are elected from jurisdictions with sizable numbers of African Americans. The most common explanation for this phenomenon locates the cause among white voters who are reluctant to vote for black candidates, which thereby limits the electoral prospects of black candidates in white constituencies. This study analyzes exit poll data from the 1996 and 1998 House elections in order to test the notion that white voters are averse to black candidates. Despite theoretical expectations that predict the existence of white voter discrimination against African American candidates, remarkably little is apparent. Thus, other explanations for patterns of African American officeholding in the United States need to be pursued.