DO GROUP DYNAMICS INFLUENCE SOCIAL CAPITAL GAINS AMONG MICROFINANCE CLIENTS? EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT IN URBAN INDIA

As an intrinsic part of the classic microfinance model, group meetings are intended to employ social capital to ensure timely repayment. Recent research suggests that more frequent meetings can increase social capital among first‐time clients. Using randomized variation in group meeting frequency for 174 microfinance groups in India, we demonstrate that social capital gains associated with more frequent meetings continue to accrue across multiple lending cycles. However, these effects are reduced when group members differ in their borrowing history. In addition, clients who start with low levels of empowerment report higher social capital gains when matched with similar clients. We discuss how current microfinance policy debates overlook the creation of social capital, including through repayment meeting frequency, and we encourage regulators to undertake a holistic understanding of microfinance's impacts.     

George Kennan Reminisces About Moscow in 1933–1937

In 1963, George F. Kennan, diplomat and scholar, wrote a long letter of reminiscences about his experiences connected with the Spaso House mansion in Moscow, beginning with his arrival in Moscow in 1933 after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Soviet Union. The text of the letter, with endnotes, is reproduced below. Ambassador Kennan returned to Spaso House in 1987, at the age of 83, and wrote that a “great abyss” now separated him from the Russia he had known a half-century earlier.     

The logic underpinning EU crisis management operations

The Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) epitomises the EU's aspirations to be a key actor in global security. The logic underlying the policy, however, remains contentious. In order to elucidate the latter, this article compares the plausibility of different theoretical frameworks. It suggests that liberal IR theory offers considerable explanatory power in this respect, and argues that the decisive forces behind CSDP operations are governmental interests as defined by domestic expectations. European governments’ shared interest lies in being perceived to effectively further national interests and domestically held values. Yet, this preoccupation with domestic politics also entails and explains CSDP's often-noted inconsistencies and constraints.     

Book reviews

Clay G. Westcott (ed.), Key Governance Issues in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Viet Nam (Manila: Asian Development Bank, 2001), 71 pages.

Michael Jacobsen and Ole Bruun (eds.), Human Rights and Asian Values: Contesting National Identities and Cultural Representations in Asia (Surrey, Great Britain: Curzon Press, 2000), 330 pages.

Robert H. Taylor (ed.), Burma: Political Economy Under Military Rules (London: Hurst & Company, 2001).

Satu Kahkonen and Anthony Lanyi (eds.), Institutions, Incentives and Economic Reforms in India (New Delhi: Sage Publications, 2000).

Kyung‐Ae Park and Dalchoong Kim (eds.), Korean Security Dynamics and Transition (New York: Palgrave, 2001), 209 pages.     

A Critical Evaluation of Nuclear Power and Renewable Electricity in Asia

This article judges modern nuclear power and renewable electricity technologies according to six criteria: cost; fuel availability; land degradation; water use; climate change; and safety/security. It concludes that when these criteria are taken into consideration, renewable electricity technologies present policy makers with a superior alternative for minimising the risk of fuel interruptions and shortages, helping improve the fragile transmission network and reducing environmental harm. These more environmentally-friendly generators cost less to construct, produce power in smaller increments and need not rely on continuous government subsidies. They generate little to no waste, have fewer greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity produced and do not substantially contribute to the risk of accidents. In contrast, the costs for nuclear plant construction, fuel, reprocessing, storage, decommissioning and further research are expected to rise. Modern nuclear reactors are prone to accidents, failures, shortages of high quality uranium ore may be imminent and the thermoelectric fuel cycle of nuclear plants consumes and degrades vast quantities of water. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with the nuclear lifecycle are notable and reactors and waste storage sites can degrade land and the natural environment. Thus, the article concludes that any effective response to electricity demand in an Asia facing climate change should promote the rapid expansion of renewable technologies and a more limited use of nuclear power.     

What Affects China's National Image? A cross-national study of public opinion

This paper investigates macro-level sources of variations across countries regrading China's national image, as measured by the proportion of the public in each of 35 countries that expressed a favorable view of China in the 2007 Pew Global Attitudes Survey. It turns out that several expected factors have no significant measurable impact on China's image: not the extent of strategic ties between China and a given country; not the political system of that country; not the extent of Chinese investment in the country; and not the number of Confucius institutes and classrooms in that country. The only macro-level factor we find to affect China's image in a country is that country's level of economic and social development, as measured by the UN Human Development Index. Controlling for the other factors, publics in poor or developing countries are much more likely to have a favorable image of China than publics in economically advanced countries. Some implications of our findings are discussed.     

Governing the future: the European Central Bank’s expectation management during the Great Moderation

Abstract

The experience of the global financial crisis has sparked renewed interest in the role of futurity in the capitalist economy in general and in the formation and coordination of expectations under uncertainty in particular. Economic sociologists have carefully studied the ‘defuturizing’ technologies devised by private actors, but have tended to neglect the increasingly pivotal part played by central banks. Political economists have had more to say on central banks, but have focused on institutional issues rather than on the concrete practices of central banking. Making an original contribution to both literatures, this paper traces the construction and subsequent evolution, up to 2007, of the European Central Bank’s communicative apparatus. Drawing on official documents and on interviews with both ECB staff and market participants, the paper shows how this apparatus created the conditions for the formation and coordination of private sector expectations. The insights from this empirical analysis into the performative dimensions of ‘credibility’ and ‘knowledge’ in monetary governance contribute directly to ongoing debates about the recent extension of the ECB’s communicative apparatus through forward guidance and quantitative easing.     

China in the era of globalization: the emergence of the discourse on economic security

Abstract

This article looks at the Chinese debate on economic security during the period between 1997 and 2004. The contemporary concept of economic security (jingji anquan, 经济安全) was first raised in the Chinese academic literature in 1997, partly as a reaction to the Asian financial crisis and partly due to the increasing role China began to play in globalization, the effects of which it increasingly felt as its economy became more integrated with that of the world. This article examines the emergence of the discourse on economic security within Chinese academic circles, and identifies the development of this concept in China between 1997 and 2004 prior to the ascendancy of the ‘fourth-generation’ leadership.     

Constructing a Rogue State: American Post-Cold War Security Discourse and North Korean Drug Trafficking*

Through an analysis of government reports, political testimony, influential periodicals and interviews, this paper holds that claims of North Korean drug trafficking and producing are greatly exaggerated. An assessment of the 1999 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, 1999 North Korea Advisory Group Report, 2000 International Crime Threat Assessment, and 2004 United Nations Report on World Drugs, among other sources, reveals only inconclusive and anecdotal support for the contention that North Korea is a drug state. This lack of reliable intelligence allows American security analysts to construct North Korea as a drug sponsoring country, making the “truth” about North Korea's relationship to drugs come from endless repetition rather than sustained analysis. As a result, US approaches towards security and drug policy in the region need to be reexamined and contextualized.

The dominant definition of a problem acquires, by repetition, and by the weight and credibility of those who propose and subscribe it, the warrant of “common sense.” (Stuart Hall1 ^?1 Stuart Hall, Culture, Society, and the Media (New York: Routledge, 1989), p. 82. )     

Bringing Law to the Table: Legal Claims,Focal Points,and the Settlement of Territorial Disputes Since 1945

In this article, we argue that international law can help state leaders reach a settlement in territorial disputes by suggesting a focal point for negotiations. International law is more likely to serve as a focal point when the legal principles relevant to the dispute are clear and well established and when one of the states in the dispute has a stronger legal claim to disputed territory. When these two conditions are present, we expect the state with a legal advantage to push for and receive favorable terms of settlement. In our analysis of all negotiated settlements in territorial disputes from 1945 to 2000, we find strong support for the importance of international law in influencing the terms of settlements. States with a strong legal advantage are more likely to secure favorable terms, whereas states lacking a strong legal claim are more likely to receive unfavorable terms.