The analytical foundations of extortionate terrorism

Extortionate terrorism is the threatened use of terrorist acts to gain concessions from the victim. In this article, game theory is used to seek answers to the following questions: (a) When will people resort to extortionate terrorism? (b) When will extortionate terrorism succeed and when will it fail? (c) What constitutes an “optimal” threat, i.e., what bribes, extortion, ransom, or payoff should be asked in exchange for which hostages or property? (d) When should unsuccessful threats be carried out and when should they be abandoned? (e) How should a victim choose among potential responses to specific terrorist threats and to the general problem of terrorism? Two different game theoretic models of terrorism are examined— one using ordinal preferences, the other von Neumann‐Mor‐genstern utilities. Terrorism is considered not simply as isolated incidents; institutions are potential victims of repeated terrorism. The terrorist and the victim, in formulating a response to each incident, are guided not only by present gains and losses, but by the effect their response has on others’ perception of their credibility and resolve—two long‐run variables.     

Policy emergence and policy convergence: the case of 'scientific-bureaucratic medicine' in the United States and United Kingdom

This article examines how the rather similar approaches to the management of medical care (which here we term 'scientific-bureaucratic medicine') emerged within the public-policy agendas of both the United Kingdom and United States during the 1990s. In particular, we address the theoretical puzzle of how explanations of policy emergence in single countries can be reconciled with policy convergence between two countries.     

The Problem of Predictability: Unstable Systems, Traffic Dividers and Arms Races

Social scientists seem to do a good job predicting some major events in history and spectacularly poor job with others. This paper is concerned with the puzzle that this poses. It investigates systems of interaction and suggests that, in principle, some criteria can be established to aid our intuitions about what might and might not be predictable. It differs from the more usual approaches which tend to treat history in monolithic terms. Instead it examines a simple concrete model of processes like economic growth and coalition formation.     

DNA evidence in rape cases and the Debbie Smith Act: forensic practice and criminal justice implications

The Debbie Smith or "Justice for All" Act was passed on November 1, 2004. The act addresses the problem of collecting and analyzing DNA evidence from backlogged rape kits sitting in crime laboratories around the country. Presently, no empirical data exist by which to assess the soundness of the legislation. However, the act clearly affects discrete operations within the forensic and criminal justice systems. This article explores the relative merits of the Debbie Smith law, highlighting changes in Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner (SANE) programs, law enforcement, court administration, correctional treatment, and juvenile justice practices. Concerns linked to the likely impact of the "Justice for All" Act raise significant questions about its overall programmatic utility and treatment efficacy.     

Population structure of Y chromosome SNP haplogroups in the United States and forensic implications for constructing Y chromosome STR databases

A set of 61 Y chromosome single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (Y-SNPs) is typed in a sample of 2517 individuals from 38 populations to infer the geographic origins of Y chromosomes in the United States and to test for paternal admixture among African-, European-, Hispanic-, Asian-, and Native-Americans. All of the samples were previously typed with the 11 core U.S. Y chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) recommended by SWGDAM, which revealed high levels of among ethnic group variation and low levels of among-population-within-ethnic-group variation. Admixture estimates vary greatly among populations and ethnic groups. The frequencies of non-European (3.4%) and non-Asian (4.5%) Y chromosomes are generally low in European-American and Asian-American populations, respectively. The frequencies of European Y chromosomes in Native-American populations range widely (i.e., 7-89%) and follow a West to East gradient, whereas they are relatively consistent in African-American populations (26.4+/-8.9%) from different locations. The European (77.8+/-9.3%) and Native-American (13.7+/-7.4%) components of the Hispanic paternal gene pool are also relatively constant among geographic regions; however, the African contribution is much higher in the Northeast (10.5+/-6.4%) than in the Southwest (1.5+/-0.9%) or Midwest (0%). To test for the effects of inter-ethnic admixture on the structure of Y-STR diversity in the U.S., we perform subtraction analyses in which Y chromosomes inferred to be admixed by Y-SNP analysis are removed from the database and pairwise population differentiation tests are implemented on the remaining Y-STR haplotypes. Results show that low levels of heterogeneity previously observed between pairs of Hispanic-American populations disappear when African-derived chromosomes are removed from the analysis. This is not the case for an unusual sample of European-Americans from New York City when its African-derived chromosomes are removed, or for Native-American populations when European-derived chromosomes are removed. We infer that both inter-ethnic admixture and population structure in ancestral source populations may contribute to fine scale Y-STR heterogeneity within U.S. ethnic groups.