AMPFlSTR Identifiler STR allele frequencies in Tanzania, Africa

POPULATION:  Identifiler—Employees and students of Muhimibili University College of Health Sciences in Dar es Salaam representing 19 widely distributed administrative districts and 42 tribes within the country.     

Sources of Leader Support and Interstate Rivalry

Since segments of the selectorate differently experience costs and benefits from rivalry, the foreign policy choices of leaders reflect these domestic preferences. As a result, shifts in the composition of the domestic coalition of support backing the leader provide a fundamental determinant of rivalry termination. While previous research sought to explore the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination using regime transitions as a proxy for turnover of the state’s domestic ruling group, in practice this measure exhibits significant disconnection with the quantity of interest. Further, there are alternative pathways through which regime transitions may lead to rivalry termination. I test the relationship using new data from the CHISOLS project, finding that when rivals undergo a change in the source of support that maintains the leader in office, the probability of rivalry termination rises dramatically. I further find that regime transitions have an effect on the probability of rivalry termination that is independent of the effect of ruling coalition turnover. This study thus both asserts the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination and clarifies the mechanism by which the relationship operates.     

Making the Case for Evaluation Partnerships in Child Protection Mediation Programs: Insights from a Case Study

Many jurisdictions have instituted child protection mediation programs (CPM) for the purposes of reducing the length of children's stays in out‐of‐home care and decreasing court system burden, and numerous studies have shown promising results. However, important implementation and sustainability problems persist. This article presents a case study's findings and retrospectively interprets underlying reasons for challenges the program faced in implementation. Study implications call for a more structured planning process, including early partnership with experienced court‐based evaluators to develop successful marketing and recruitment strategies that may encourage stakeholder endorsement and foster sustainability.     

Dynamic Characteristics of Signatures: Effects of Writer Style on Genuine and Simulated Signatures

The aims of this study were to determine if computer‐measured dynamic features (duration, size, velocity, jerk, and pen pressure) differ between genuine and simulated signatures. Sixty subjects (3 equal groups of 3 signature styles) each provided 10 naturally written (genuine) signatures. Each of these subjects then provided 15 simulations of each of three model signatures. The genuine (N = 600) and simulated (N = 2700) signatures were collected using a digitizing tablet. MovAlyzeR^® software was used to estimate kinematic parameters for each pen stroke. Stroke duration, velocity, and pen pressure were found to discriminate between genuine and simulated signatures regardless of the simulator's own style of signature or the style of signature being simulated. However, there was a significant interaction between style and condition for size and jerk (a measure of smoothness). The results of this study, based on quantitative analysis and dynamic handwriting features, indicate that the style of the simulator's own signature and the style of signature being simulated can impact the characteristics of handwriting movements for simulations. Writer style characteristics might therefore need to be taken into consideration as potentially significant when evaluating signature features with a view to forming opinions regarding authenticity.     

The Effect of Skin Debris on Gunshot Residue Sampling and Detection

These experiments were designed to determine whether skin debris (desquamated epithelial cells and apparent skin oils) affects gunshot residue (GSR) particle detection on the sticky tape lift samples prepared for scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A dabbing experiment showed that GSR particles accumulate not only on the adhesive surface of the sampler, but also on the epithelial cell surfaces. Samplers were loaded with target GSR followed by dabbing 30 times on the back of a hand. Backscatter electron images were taken at 20 kV and for some at 30 kV of the same areas. The samplers were then treated with a sodium/calcium hypochlorite solution (bleach) to remove skin debris and again imaged in the SEM. Comparison of these images shows more GSR particles will likely be revealed at 30 kV than 20 kV and more particles revealed by the bleach treatment in an automated SEM system.     

Exploratory trial of schema-focussed therapy in a forensic personality disordered population

The management of needs and risks in personality disordered offender populations has become a focus for health and criminal justice services in the UK. Recent studies demonstrate the effectiveness of schema focussed therapy (SFT) for patients with borderline personality disorder. This study was an exploratory trial of the feasibility of implementing SFT in a population of patients with personality disorder in a high secure hospital in England. Preliminary evaluations of the effects of SFT were conducted to investigate whether those receiving SFT demonstrated significant improvements on measures of anger, impulsiveness, schemata and interpersonal style. No significant effects were evident although there was a significant increase in defectiveness/shame schema in the SFT group. Lack of effectiveness of SFT is likely due to the preliminary nature of this study. Future trials of SFT need to ensure comprehensive therapist preparation, control of TAU, bigger samples, address attrition and provide more intensive therapy.     

Do Sanctions Always Stigmatize? The Effects of Economic Sanctions on Foreign Aid

A prevalent view among both scholars and policymakers is that economic sanctions stigmatize and isolate their targets. According to this perspective, the stigma associated with economic sanctions should signal to foreign aid donors that they should be more cautious and restrained in providing assistance to sanctioned states. We test this signaling-based theory via a large-n analysis of the impact that sanctions imposed by the United States and those supported by the United Nations (UN) had on the aid flows of 133 recipient states from 1960–2000. Contrary to expectations, our results indicate that being subject to sanctions supported by the UN does not have a negative effect on target states’ aid flows, and being sanctioned by the United States actually has a positive effect on them. We explore two potential explanations for our puzzling findings based upon donor self-interest and donor altruism via a scoping analysis of eight sanctions cases in which target states received greater than expected aid flows. Our findings suggest that theories based upon donor self-interest represent the most promising explanation for why individual donors may increase their aid to sanctioned states.     

Civil Society as Ideology in the Middle East: A Critical Perspective

Since the early 1990s support for civil society has constituted the linchpin of international efforts in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) to promote democratisation and democratic values. The rationale for this support lies in an understanding of civil society drawn from a liberal-democratic model, which dominates debates about civil society. This paper highlights the inaccuracies of this model when applied to the MENA and, using Turkey as an example, draws attention to the perils of supporting civil society organisations (CSOs) based on its conjectures. A critical analysis of CSOs and their role in Turkish society, drawing on the theoretical framework laid down by Gramsci, highlights two key issues: (1) contrary to the dominant policy view which equates civil society organisations with democracy, CSOs often assist elites in both democratic and undemocratic states to extend and consolidate their political economic power; (2) the idealisation of civil society by Western policy makers results in a diminished awareness of the factors which weaken civil society and erodes its democratic potential. Overall, the findings support the assertion that CSOs in the MENA facilitate predominantly elite interests over those of ordinary citizens and democracy more broadly.