Are expert penmen better than lay people at producing simulations of a model signature?

Although forensic signature examination is considered to be an identification science, it is a theoretical possibility that an individual may learn to forge another person's signature that is free from indications of simulation behaviours. This proposition was tested in a signature blind trial that was administered to 42 forensic handwriting examiners (FHEs). Participants expressed opinions on the authorship of 100 questioned signatures. The questioned signatures comprised a mixture of genuine, disguised and simulated signatures. Calligraphers formed part of the population of individuals who provided simulated signatures for the trial. A total of 3100 opinions were expressed of which 1254 were correct, 224 misleading and 1622 were inconclusive. Of the opinions expressed regarding the simulated signatures, the misleading score for the calligraphers' forgeries were approximately four times that of the lay persons' forgeries. These results provide strong evidence in support of the proposition that calligraphers are more skilled at simulating signatures than are lay people and can produce forgeries that some FHEs have difficulty detecting.     

Post-feeding larval behaviour in the blowfly, Calliphora vicina: effects on post-mortem interval estimates

Using the rate of development of blowflies colonising a corpse, accumulated degree hours (ADH), or days (ADD), is an established method used by forensic entomologists to estimate the post-mortem interval (PMI). Derived from laboratory experiments, their application to field situations needs care. This study examines the effect of the post-feeding larval dispersal time on the ADH and therefore the PMI estimate. Post-feeding dispersal in blowfly larvae is typically very short in the laboratory but may extend for hours or days in the field, whilst the larvae try to find a suitable pupariation site. Increases in total ADH (to adult eclosion), due to time spent dispersing, are not simply equal to the dispersal time. The pupal period is increased by approximately 2 times the length of the dispersal period. In practice, this can introduce over-estimation errors in the PMI estimate of between 1 and 2 days if the total ADH calculations do not consider the possibility of an extended larval dispersal period.     

A prospective follow-up of children with anorexia nervosa

We report on a prospective follow-up (mean 3.1 years) of 22 children with anorexia nervosa (mean age at onset—12.1). Adequate information was obtained for 18 children. The specific outcome was good in 10 (55.5%), intermediate in 5 (27.8%), and poor in 3 (16.7%); none had died. No prognostic factors were identified. The findings are compared with those from the long term follow-up of a previous cohort of children with anorexia nervosa, and confirm the unsatisfactory prognosis for this age group.Major research interest concerns the etiology and treatment of eating disorders in children and adolescents.Has been with the Eating Disorders Research Team since 1992. His major interest is research methodologyHas been with the eating disorders Research Team since 1989. Her major interests are in obsessional-compulsive problems and eating disorders in children.Major research interests include eating disorders in children and adolescents, cystic fibrosis, the effects of transplantation in children and adherence to treatment. Chief Editor ofClinical Child Psychology and Psychiatry. Has been collaborating with the Eating Disorders Research Team since 1985.     

Policy Advice from Outsiders: The Challenges of Policy Co-construction

The nature of policy work in nongovernment organizations (NGOs) is important consideration when understanding policy co-construction. Based on the results from a Canadian web-based survey of policy workers across five fields across three provinces, a multi-regression structural equation model suggests how NGO policy work can contribute to a greater collaboration on key policy issues and greater policy interaction between societal organizations and government agencies. The frequency of formal and informal invitations by governments played an important role in terms of the overall levels of interaction and stakeholder input. Networking activity was found to be important when addressing consultative-related issues, but only with NGO networks or their clients. Involvement in the early stages of policy development by the NGO policy workers did not lead to greater engagement with government officials, which may be a potential problem when their advice is sought after.     

Reassessing the Influence of Criminal History in Federal Criminal Courts

Abstract

Prior sentencing research indicates that defendants with more extensive criminal histories receive more punitive dispositions and that criminal history influences sentencing decisions over and above its influence on the guideline recommended sentence. To date, these additional effects of criminal history have almost exclusively been treated as linear effects. However, there are plausible reasons to expect that criminal history could have curvilinear effects on sentencing outcomes that taper off at higher scores. The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential curvilinear effects of defendant criminal history on incarceration, sentence length, and downward departure decisions in federal criminal courts. The findings suggest that criminal history has curvilinear effects on each of these sentencing outcomes. As criminal history category increases, defendants receive more severe sentences, net of other factors, but only up to a certain threshold level, at which point criminal history effects taper off and even reverse.     

Endogenous competence and a limit to the Condorcet Jury Theorem

We describe and compare the experiences of academic exclusion of Alexander Del Mar, J.A. Hobson, and Gordon Tullock. While aspects of the circumstances differed, a common element was academic exclusion because of challenges to mainstream views. Alexander Del Mar, J.A. Hobson, and Gordon Tullock were in due course recognized for the originality and merit of their contributions, although each incurred personal costs because of the exclusion by the academic elites of their time. Our study takes us into the role of ideologically based prejudice in judgment of the worthiness of economic ideas.     

Too central to fail? Terror networks and leadership decapitation

ABSTRACT

Leadership decapitation, as a means of hindering the operations and hastening the demise of terrorist organizations, has been the subject of a growing body of research. However, these studies have not examined how an organization’s position in a broader network impacts its ability to weather decapitation. We argue that highly networked organizations possess characteristics that make decapitation less effective. To test this argument, we combine data on leadership decapitation with network data on terrorist organizations and find that well-networked organizations are resilience to leadership decapitation. Our study has implications for our understanding of how terrorist organizations respond to counterterrorism efforts.     

Predictors of sexual aggression among male juvenile offenders

The purpose of this study was to conduct a longitudinal examination of predictors of sexual aggression among male juvenile offenders. Four hundred and four adolescent males between the ages of 14 and 17 years were recruited from juvenile probation offices to take part in a prospective study of substance use and sexual risk. At baseline, participants completed a series of questionnaires that assessed putative risk factors for sexual aggression. They then completed a measure of sexual aggression at the 6-month follow-up period. Correlational analyses revealed that participants who reported hard drug use, more frequent alcohol and marijuana use, and less severe offenses reported engaging in more severe sexual aggression. In addition, participants who reported higher impulsivity, sensation seeking, and externalizing behaviors also reported participating in more severe sexual aggression. When these variables were included in a regression analysis, only externalizing behaviors and severity of offense uniquely predicted severity of sexual aggression at the 6-month follow-up.     

ClashofCultures

<正>Experiencing the Lunar New Year in China is always a memorable event,but this year’s spectacle was amplified through multiple glasses of baijiu and a bombardment of unsavory news from abroad.During the Chinese New Year,which started on January 28,hundreds of millions of citizens drained out of top-tier cities such as Beijing to seek the embrace of their hometown family and