MINORITY THREAT AND POLICE STRENGTH FROM 1980 TO 2000: A FIXED‐EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR AND INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IN LARGE U.S. CITIES*

Many studies have assessed threat theory by investigating the relationships between the size of minority populations and police strength. Yet these investigations analyzed older data with cross‐sectional designs. This study uses a fixed‐effects panel design to detect nonlinear and interactive relationships between minority presence and the per capita number of police in large U.S. cities in the last three census years. The findings show that the relationship between racial threat and the population‐corrected number of police officers has recently become considerably stronger. In accord with theoretically based expectations, tests for interactions show that segregated cities with larger African American populations have smaller departments. The coefficients on another interaction effect suggest that racial segregation leads to reductions in police strength in the South perhaps because officers are less likely to intervene in residentially isolated black neighborhoods in this region.     

Individuals,Parties and the Parliamentary Record in the 1690s

SUMMARY

In this article Colin Brooks reviews the historical writing of the last thirty years on British history between 1688 and 1714. This has offered a variety of interpretations which give priority to a number of different factors. The problem now facing historians is how to synthesize these interpretations into a coherent account. The article suggests that while it is possible to reconstruct from the surviving source materials what happened in the House of Commons, the incompleteness and the ambiguities of the evidence make it much more difficult to determine why it happened, or what were the motives of the individuals taking part. The nature of the source materials requires that they be interpreted with more caution than they have often received: they have as much to tell about individual perceptions as about what actually happened.     

MEASURING PROTECTIVE HANDGUN OWNERSHIP*

Hill et al. (1985) have suggested a measure of protective handgun ownership that can be implemented in an omnibus survey like the General Social Survey (GSS), which does not ask respondents why they own the gun. Using the 1980 GSS and their refined measure, Hill et al. report (among other things) that fear of crime and prior victimization increase the likelihood that men, but not women, will own handguns for protection. Their analysis, however, is Jawed because (1) they made errors in their analysis and (2) their measure of protective handgun ownership is biased. This paper explains why the measure is biased and shows how the measure alters parameter estimates.     

INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMENT - A VIEW FROM THE CENTRE

The combination of new public management reforms and 'informatization' is presenting opportunities for the re-engineering of government business activities. Awareness and debate about the implications of this are limited however. Structural reforms to public services need to take account of the notion of information stewardship, and an essential competence of public officials is to manage and use information held in trust. Public service reforms which lead both to fragmentation and to the contract culture have implications for information systems development and implementation. Whilst new technology can be used to alter radically the administrative and service delivery systems of government, technical possibilities must be set alongside issues such as the privacy of the individual and the protection of public interest. The article also discusses the role of the Office of Public Services and Science, and HM Treasury, in stimulating appropriate strategies to cope with these dilemmas.