MODELS, THEORIES, AND THE THEORY OF POLITICAL PARTIES

… a deliberate attempt to transpose into political science the technique of the 'working model', that is, fundamentally, to restore to favour, in a new guise, the methodical use of hypothesis in science.
MAURICE DUVERGER, Political Parties , p. xiv.     

A More Accountable Press

This independent report for the Media Standards Trust makes the case for urgent reform of the self-regulation of British press content. It focuses on increasing inaccuracy and invasion of privacy by the press, which also suffers declining public trust. These features are linked to major changes in press technology and economics. Unlike comparable trades and professions, the Press Complaints Commission has not updated its structure and procedures to reflect modern standards of transparency, fairness and accountability. The democratic role of the press is weakened. Governments may be tempted to intervene. A later report will propose reforms.     

DETERRENCE AND DETERRABILITY*

The first forays into Western criminological theory came in the language of deterrence (Beccaria, 1963 [1764]). The paradigm itself is simple and straightforward, offering an explanation for crime that doubles as a solution (Pratt et al., 2006). Crime occurs when the expected rewards outweigh the anticipated risks, so increasing the risks, at least theoretically, will prevent most crimes in most circumstances. If deterrence describes the perceptual process by which would-be offenders calculate risks and rewards prior to offending, then deterrability refers to the offender's capacity and/or willingness to perform this calculation. The distinction between deterrence and deterrability is critical to understanding criminality from a utilitarian perspective. However, by attempting to answer “big picture” questions about the likelihood of offending relative to sanction threats, precious little scholarship has attended to the situated meaning of deterrability. This article draws attention to this lacuna in hopes of sensitizing criminology to an area of inquiry that, at present, remains only loosely developed.     

PRIVATE INITIATIVE AND COMMUNITY RESPONSIBILITY: A STRATEGY FOR THE BLACK COMMUNITY

In Britain black leaders are generally less well integrated into community agencies and local administration than their counterparts in the United States. This is partly explained by reference to the American 'arms length' approach to funding community development which, in contrast to the more centralized British approach, enables black leaders to work 'within the system' apparently without sacrificing too much of their political independence. In this context the paper views the activities and funding of the US community action and development agencies and British community relations councils.     

AN ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE MODEL OF THE EFFECT OF POVERTY ON URBAN HOMICIDE RATES

Inconsistent findings on the relationship between poverty and violent crime have led some authors to question the presence of a structural relationship. There is reason, however, to believe that many of the existing estimates are biased because measures of poverty contain errors which are confounded with disturbances in the estimated models. In this paper we specify and estimate a model which accommodates the measurement error and provides an instrumental variable estimate of the effects of poverty on homicide rates in the 49 largest cities in the U.S. Compared to similar OLS estimates, the instrumental variable estimates are much larger and fit a model in which poverty increases the homicide rate. The results are similar when homicides are divided into four types: family homicides, other primary homicides, robbery homicides, and other-felony homicides     

Fast thinking: Implications for democratic politics

A major programme of research on cognition has been built around the idea that human beings are frequently intuitive thinkers and that human intuition is imperfect. The modern marketing of politics and the time‐poor position of many citizens suggests that ‘fast’, intuitive, thinking in many contemporary democracies is ubiquitous. This article explores the consequences that such fast thinking might have for the democratic practice of contemporary politics. Using focus groups with a range of demographic profiles, fast thinking about how politics works is stimulated and followed by a more reflective and collectively deliberative form of slow thinking among the same participants. A strong trajectory emerges consistently in all groups in that in fast thinking mode participants are noticeably more negative and dismissive about the workings of politics than when in slow thinking mode. A fast thinking focus among citizens may be good enough to underwrite mainstream political exchange, but at the cost of supporting a general negativity about politics and the way it works. Yet breaking the cycle of fast thinking – as advocated by deliberation theorists – might not be straightforward because of the grip of fast thinking. The fast/slow thinking distinction, if carefully used, offers valuable new insight into political science.     

Juvenile Mental Health Court: Rationale and Protocols

Under the sponsorship of the judiciary, the Santa Clara County, California Juvenile Court, in partnership with the Juvenile Mental Health Department and a technical assistance agency (SOLOMON), has pioneered a Juvenile Mental Health Court for seriously mentally ill children who have become involved in the criminal justice system. The judiciary, probation department, district attorney, public defender, county counsel, and service providers have collectively embarked upon the implementation of a modern approach to mental health diagnosis, triage, and treatment services for youth and families who come in contact with the justice system as a result of the combination of serious mental illness and juvenile delinquency. This article presents the court's rationale and protocols.     

EXPLAINING RADICAL POLICY CHANGE: THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY POLICY UNDER THE BRITISH LABOUR GOVERNMENT 2006–10

An innovative framework combining the ‘multiple streams’ (MS) and ‘punctuated equilibrium’ (PE) models of agenda‐setting is used to explain the transformation of UK climate change and energy policy under the Labour Government between 2006 and 2010. The coupling of the problem, politics and policy streams by policy entrepreneurs (MS), and changes in policy image and institutional venues (PE), were critical in opening a policy window, disrupting the existing policy monopoly and enabling radical policy initiatives. The case study suggests two revisions to the models: (1) policy windows can remain open far longer than either model typically predicts; and (2) party politics, especially where party competition generates a ‘competitive consensus’, can be important for both initiating and prolonging policy change in parliamentary systems. An important factor typically overlooked by both models is the significant policy entrepreneurship role that government ministers can play, particularly when an issue becomes part of their ‘narrative identity’.