MEASURING PROTECTIVE HANDGUN OWNERSHIP*

Hill et al. (1985) have suggested a measure of protective handgun ownership that can be implemented in an omnibus survey like the General Social Survey (GSS), which does not ask respondents why they own the gun. Using the 1980 GSS and their refined measure, Hill et al. report (among other things) that fear of crime and prior victimization increase the likelihood that men, but not women, will own handguns for protection. Their analysis, however, is Jawed because (1) they made errors in their analysis and (2) their measure of protective handgun ownership is biased. This paper explains why the measure is biased and shows how the measure alters parameter estimates.     

MODELS, THEORIES, AND THE THEORY OF POLITICAL PARTIES

… a deliberate attempt to transpose into political science the technique of the 'working model', that is, fundamentally, to restore to favour, in a new guise, the methodical use of hypothesis in science.
MAURICE DUVERGER, Political Parties , p. xiv.     

Toward a New Era of Administrative Reform? The Myth of Post‐NPM in New Zealand

This article explores the supposed shift from New Public Management (NPM) to a new era of “post‐NPM” by looking at one critical case, New Zealand. It finds limited evidence of such a shift, suggesting that the wider literature needs to move to a more careful methodological treatment of empirical patterns. To contribute to such a move, this article applies a three‐pronged approach to the study of changing doctrines in executive government. After setting out the broad contours of what NPM and post‐NPM supposedly constitute, the article proceeds to a documentary analysis of State Services Commission doctrines; this is followed by an analysis of “Public Service Bargains” based on elite interviews and finally a case‐study approach of the Crown Entities Act 2004. Far from a new era of administrative reform, the “messy” patterns that emerge suggest a continuation of traditional understandings and ad hoc and politically driven adjustments, leading to diversification.     

Obama Should Be a Second Carter in the Middle East

President Barack Obama has extended the hand of engagement to the Muslim and Arab world, while warning Israel against new settlements in occupied Palestine and hedging his bets with remote drone strikes against Al-Qaida and the Taliban in Pakistan. The new CIA director, a military historian and the Somali-born feminist Ayaan Hirsi Ali assess his strategy.     

A More Accountable Press

This independent report for the Media Standards Trust makes the case for urgent reform of the self-regulation of British press content. It focuses on increasing inaccuracy and invasion of privacy by the press, which also suffers declining public trust. These features are linked to major changes in press technology and economics. Unlike comparable trades and professions, the Press Complaints Commission has not updated its structure and procedures to reflect modern standards of transparency, fairness and accountability. The democratic role of the press is weakened. Governments may be tempted to intervene. A later report will propose reforms.