AN ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE MODEL OF THE EFFECT OF POVERTY ON URBAN HOMICIDE RATES

Inconsistent findings on the relationship between poverty and violent crime have led some authors to question the presence of a structural relationship. There is reason, however, to believe that many of the existing estimates are biased because measures of poverty contain errors which are confounded with disturbances in the estimated models. In this paper we specify and estimate a model which accommodates the measurement error and provides an instrumental variable estimate of the effects of poverty on homicide rates in the 49 largest cities in the U.S. Compared to similar OLS estimates, the instrumental variable estimates are much larger and fit a model in which poverty increases the homicide rate. The results are similar when homicides are divided into four types: family homicides, other primary homicides, robbery homicides, and other-felony homicides     

Fast thinking: Implications for democratic politics

A major programme of research on cognition has been built around the idea that human beings are frequently intuitive thinkers and that human intuition is imperfect. The modern marketing of politics and the time‐poor position of many citizens suggests that ‘fast’, intuitive, thinking in many contemporary democracies is ubiquitous. This article explores the consequences that such fast thinking might have for the democratic practice of contemporary politics. Using focus groups with a range of demographic profiles, fast thinking about how politics works is stimulated and followed by a more reflective and collectively deliberative form of slow thinking among the same participants. A strong trajectory emerges consistently in all groups in that in fast thinking mode participants are noticeably more negative and dismissive about the workings of politics than when in slow thinking mode. A fast thinking focus among citizens may be good enough to underwrite mainstream political exchange, but at the cost of supporting a general negativity about politics and the way it works. Yet breaking the cycle of fast thinking – as advocated by deliberation theorists – might not be straightforward because of the grip of fast thinking. The fast/slow thinking distinction, if carefully used, offers valuable new insight into political science.     

English Councillors and Mayoral Governance: Developing a New Dynamic for Political Accountability

Much has been written about the arrival of directly elected mayors into the English political landscape. The responses of the councillors serving on those councils to the arrival of elected mayors, has by comparison, been neglected. Yet, the construction, by councillors of a new role as the guarantor of local political accountability within mayoral councils, requires councillors to develop new patterns of political behaviour which challenge long‐held assumptions about the role of the councillor as a political representative. The paper reports the findings of research conducted amongst councillors on England's mayoral authorities, which explored how councillors have responded to the arrival of an elected mayor and what mayoral government means for our understanding of the role of the councillor within English local government.     

Putting Neoliberalism in its Place

Neoliberalism is not as popular as its opponents seem so much to fear; in democratic politics it nearly always hides behind other ideologies and policy types, as its essential message that we should pursue no goals that cannot be achieved through the market is intrinsically unattractive to the majority of people. Its power lies in the wealth of its key supporters, and in the difficulty of raising coordinated opposition to it among post‐industrial populations that have little sense of their political interests. The main base for hope of change in this comes from the as yet unrealised potential of women's movements.     

The Dynamics of Top‐Down Organizational Change: Donald Rumsfeld's Campaign to Transform the U.S. Defense Department

Drawing upon interviews with 69 defense policymakers and close observers, this article develops an extrapolation‐oriented case study of Donald Rumsfeld's campaign to transform the development of the U.S. Defense Department's future capabilities. This reform effort, launched by President George W. Bush during his first presidential campaign, encountered difficulties in developing and promoting the content of the proposed transformation and in executing it. Following Eugene Bardach's work on institutional craftsmanship and Michael Barzelay's efforts to further develop Bardach's methodology for extrapolation‐oriented case studies, the article explores the sources of the transformation campaign's difficulties, identifying several mechanisms linking common process context factors, exacerbated by process design features, to these negative outcomes. It also offers suggestions for rendering the design of change campaigns more robust to these vulnerabilities.     

GOVERNANCE AS POLITY: AN INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH TO THE EVOLUTION OF STATE FUNCTIONS IN IRELAND

State institutions mediate the challenges of globalization for the domestic political community: the concerns of specialists in comparative politics and in public administration are increasingly converging round an interest in the nature and functioning of state institutions. This paper draws on preliminary findings from a time-series database of national-level political institutions in Ireland to track continuity and change in state functions through analysis of state agencies. It also identifies four modes of state action: developmental, regulatory, adjudicatory, and moral advocacy, each of which has a traditional and a modern manifestation. While the first two modes are familiar in comparative context, the latter two are likely to merit further analysis cross-nationally.     

Social Capital,Migration and Development in the Valles Centrales of Oaxaca,Mexico: Non‐Migrants and Communities of Origin Matter

This article investigates the importance of place‐of‐origin communities to an understanding of the impact of migrant remittances on local development, employing the concept of social capital. Two aspects of social capital (each present prior to migration) are shown to be of significance–family relationships and community organisation. Drawing on recent research in two peasant communities in Oaxaca, Mexico, social capital is used to examine the relevance of non‐migrants in shaping the outcomes of migration in communities of origin. Evaluation of migrant remittances and home‐town associations demonstrates the developmental significance of non‐migrants and communities of origin.