Civil Society and Political Transition in Mexico

This article analyzes the current political transition in México from the vantage point of civil society. It departs from a definition of the Mexican authoritarian regime, now the oldest in the world, as a model of fusion between the state, the market and society. The crisis of the developmental model and the regime's increasing inability to incorporate the new social actors created by industrialization and urbanization opened up a long period of political crisis whose main content was a process of societal differentiation. The failure of President Salinas' project of neo-liberal reconstruction of the authoritarian regime deepened the crisis and led to the formation and consolidation of strong national political parties, the beginning of a still unequal, but effective electoral competition and especially to the emergence of several civic groups that are struggling for a democratization that goes beyond electoral politics. The collective identity as civil society of these civic groups has been instrumental for the critique of the regime's gradualist strategy of "permenent electoral reform".     

Party Polarization and the Business Cycle in the United States

A large literature has studied the trend of greaterpolarization between Democrats and Republicans in Congress.This paper empirically examines the extent to which inflationand unemployment explain cyclical movements ofpolarization over time. An informal application of thestandard Downsian spatial competition model of partiesgenerates the following relationships, ceteris paribus: (1)inflation should be associated with policy convergence, (2)unemployment should be associated with polarization, (3) theeffect of unemployment on polarization should be larger inmagnitude than the effect of inflation on convergence, and (4)the effect of unemployment on polarization should be strongerin the House than in the Senate. We estimate the relationshipbetween vote records and business cycle conditions over the1947–1999 period using a GLS model with varying lags. Ourresults are broadly consistent with these business cyclehypotheses of polarization, though greater support is found inHouse data than in Senate data.     

Chronicle of a Survival Foretold: How Protest Behavior Against Armed Actors Influenced Violence in the Colombian Civil War, 1988–2005

This article examines the circumstances under which civilians, using protests as a mechanism, alter the strategic use of violence by armed actors (rebels and state forces). By examining the civil war in Colombia between 1988 and 2005, this study finds that combatants decrease their attacks against the population when civilians protest against the enemy. Combatants interpret such demonstrations as costly signals of loyalty. Furthermore, when insurgents are the target of the protests, insurgents increase repression against civilians as rebels get stronger. In contrast, state forces (and paramilitaries) compensate for their weakness in the area by multiplying civilian victims. Both state forces and rebels, however, are likely to decrease violence against civilians when civilians protest against both parties in contested zones. In such contexts, armed actors are likely to refrain from retaliation because any violence might drive noncombatants toward the enemy.     

An Exploratory Study on International R&D Strategies of Chinese Companies in Europe

We here present a study that arms the reader with various discussion points on the research and development (R&D) foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies of Chinese multinational corporations (MNCs) in Europe. Through archival research and interviews, we adopted a multi‐case study approach to investigate how significant are these investments and how relevant do they become for the local innovation systems. Our analysis shows that the establishment of R&D centers, and more importantly the evolution of these centers, does not coincide with what international business theories would have predicted. The Chinese MNCs considered entered Europe in a variety of forms, guided by various learning goals. However, we found evidence of the growing tendency of these companies to insulate themselves from local partners and to engage in less explorative and more exploitative R&D activity, adapting technologies developed elsewhere for the European market, gaining access to good indigenous labor and technologies rather than to local partnerships.     

Exceptions to Article 226: Alternative Administrative Procedures and the Pursuit of Member States

This article considers the procedures used in EC law to prosecute infringements committed by Member States, in addition to the well-known Article 226 (ex Article 169) EC. It has three purposes. The first is to systematise the main categories of these, to examine the reasons for the creation of these procedures and the interaction among them, using Article 226 as the main point of reference. The basic criterion is the distinction between procedures established by the EC Treaty and procedures established by secondary legislation but without a clear legal basis in the Treaty. The second purpose is to explain why Member States have accepted the development of new procedures, even though they serve to reinforce the Commission's powers. The article argues that this acceptance can be explained, first, by the active participation of Member States, through committees, in the establishment of these procedures; and, secondly, a deliberate strategy to convince Member States, on both a sectoral basis, and a case-by-case basis, by the Commission. The article concludes, however, that the current procedures should be improved and that it is time for them to be realigned and rationalised.     

古巴当前的形势

首先 ,我衷心感谢中国社会科学院国际合作局和拉丁美洲研究所适时倡议并顺利举办这次论坛。记得 5年前我刚到北京就任时 ,最早参加的官方活动之一就是参加类似今天这样的一次会议 ,那次会议使我得以与从事拉美研究的学者和研究员们建立了初步的联系。正因如此 ,我才有幸见证了近 5年来中国人民和拉美人民之间关系的蓬勃发展 ,这一发展对中国和拉美各国人民及其经济都是有利的。近 2 5年来中国举世瞩目的发展及其和平、合作和尊重各国主权的政策已经成为稳定与进步的因素 ,为拉美各国提供了充满希望的机遇。最近 ,胡锦涛主席和曾庆红副主席的…     

2001年经济危机之后阿根廷的形势

首先 ,请允许我感谢中国社会科学院国际合作局和拉丁美洲研究所 ,邀请我与尊贵的同事、学者和中国党政领导一道 ,参加这次国际学术论坛。我们十分清楚 ,无论对中拉关系在各个领域的发展 ,还是对拉美人民的福祉来说 ,召开本次论坛的倡议都具有重要意义。我们十分积极地参加这次活动 ,企望能够使人们更好地了解我们问题的所在 ,了解我们怎样一起着手解决这些问题 ,这将有助于我们为维护持久的利益 ,实现稳定、持续和长久发展的目标而努力。我谈的主题是“2 0 0 1年经济危机之后阿根廷的形势”。我国历史上规模最大的这次危机是怎样产生的 ?我…     

Testing Application of Geographical Information Systems,Forensic Geomorphology and Electrical Resistivity Tomography to Investigate Clandestine Grave Sites in Colombia,South America

Colombian forensic investigators required assistance locating clandestine burials of missing persons related to human right atrocities from 14 years ago. Geoscientific search methods were trialled, including a predictive spatial statistical model, using various input and database information, to select the most likely grave locations in difficult mountainous terrain. Groundwork using forensic geomorphology, near-surface geophysics (ERT) and subsequent probing identified suspect burial positions. One site was in mountainous terrain and the other in former school grounds, both difficult to access and in poor weather conditions. In the mountainous area, a negative resistivity anomaly area was identified and intrusively investigated, found to be a buried rock. In school grounds, after MESP and intelligence were used to identify a burial site, surface depressions were identified, and ERT datasets collected over the highest priority depression; intrusive investigations discovered a hand-dug pit containing animal bones. This approach is suggested for Latin American searches.