Limits to power: a study of the influence of mayors and caos on municipal budgets in Ontario, 1977–1990

Abstract: The degree to which leaders can influence organizational outcomes has long been a matter of controversy in the theoretical and empirical literature. This issue is especially complex in government organizations where both political and administrative leaders can influence policy and its implementation. The power of administrators may potentially exceed that of their political “masters,” particularly in municipal government in Canada where the typical structure combines a weak mayor, non-partisan elections and a chief administrative officer (cao). Annual data on municipal budget allocations, turnover of mayors and caos in forty-nine Ontario municipalities were examined over a fourteen-year period in order to assess the relative impact of changes in these two leadership positions on variations in expenditures for six categories of services, as well as two income variables. Our methodology replicated and expanded on the analysis of variance approach used by Salanick and Pfeffer (1977) in a study of the influence of mayors on municipal budgets in the United States, and by Lieberson and OConnor (1972) who studied the impact of presidents and board chairs on financial indicators in 167 US. manufacturing corporations. Our analysis, like these two previous studies, shows that leadership turnover has an insignificant influence on variation in municipal income and budget allocations, while the decision-making environment - the city itself and the year - accounts for most of the variation. Although neither mayors nor caos have a significant influence on municipal budget allocations in Ontario, the results suggest that the power of caos is somewhat greater than that of mayors. Our concluding discussion explores implications of this limited study for debates about the power of leaders in organizations, and about the relative influence of politicians and administrators in local government in Canada. Sommaire: II y a longtemps que règne la controverse, dans la littérature théorique et empirique, pour savoir dans quelle mesure les leaders peuvent influer sur les résultats d'une organisation. Cette question est particulièrement complexe dans les organismes gouvernementaux, où des leaders tant politiques qu'administratifs peuvent influencer les politiques et leur mise en oeuvre. Le pouvoir des administrateurs risque de dépasser celui de leurs maîtres politiques, particulièrement au niveau des gouvemements municipaux au Canada, dont la structure type combine un maire faible, des élections non partisanes et un directeur administratif (DG) à la tête de l'administration. On a examiné sur une période de 14 ans les données annuelles sur les allocations budgétaires municipales et le roulement des maires et des DG de 49 municipalités ontariennes; notre but était d'evaluer l'impact relatif qu'avaient les changements survenus dans ces deux postes de direction sur la variation des dépenses dam six catégories de services, ainsi que sur deux variables de revenu. Notre méthodologie a repris et élargi l'analyse de variance utilisée par Salanick et l'feffer (1977) dans une étude concernant l'infiuence des maires sur les budgets municipaux aux États-Unis, et par Lieberson et O'Connor (19721, qui ont étudié l'effet qu'avaient les présidents et les présidents des conseils d'administration sur les indices financiers de 167 sociétés manufacturières américaines. Comme ces deux études précédentes, notre analyse indique que le changement de chefs n'a pas d'effet significatif sur ia variation du revenu et des allocations budgétaires municipales, tandis que le contexte décisionnel (c'est-à-dire la ville elle-même et l'année en cause) est à l'origine de la plus grande partie des variations. Bien que ni les maires, ni les DG n'aient une influence significative sur les allocations budgétnires, les résultats suggèrent que le pouvoir des DG est quelque peu supérieur à celui des maires. La conclusion explore les conséquences de cette étude séctorielle sur le débat concernant le pouvoir des leaders dans les organisations et concernant l'influence relative des politiciens et des administrateurs au niveau des gouvernements locaux au Canada.     

General Election 2015 in Singapore: What Social Media Did and Did not Do

Abstract

The online buzz leading up to the 2015 Singapore general election (GE2015) favoured opposition parties and personalities, encouraging perceptions that the opposition would garner more votes than in 2011. Instead, the ruling People’s Action Party won and saw an increase in their vote share from 60.1% in 2011 to 69.9%. What role, then, did social media play in this election? This study shows that, against prevailing assumptions, GE2015 was not a social media election. Through an online survey of 2,000 respondents conducted after polling day, it was found that mainstream media and their online counterparts were used most frequently and were trusted more as sources of information about the election. Online and offline political participation was also low. However, social media users were more interested in election issues, were more likely to discuss politics with others and participated more in offline political activities than non-users.     

A Study of the Presence of Gunshot Residue in Pittsburgh Police Stations using SEM/EDS and LC‐MS/MS

Due to possible secondary transfer of gunshot residue (GSR) onto a suspect in police custody prior to sampling, a baseline must be created for the amount of GSR present. With an increase of “lead free” ammunition, testing for both gunpowder and primer GSR is relevant. Seventy samples were collected using carbon‐coated adhesive stubs from four Pittsburgh Police Stations and vehicles to investigate these locations as sources of secondary GSR contamination. These seventy samples were analyzed for primer GSR using scanning electron microscopy‐energy‐dispersive X‐ray spectrometry. One primer GSR particle was detected; no sample was classified as positive for primer GSR. These same samples were then analyzed for gunpowder GSR using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry to test for akardite II, ethylcentralite, diphenylamine, N‐nitrosodiphenylamine, 2‐nitrodiphenylamine, and 4‐nitrodiphenylamine. Ethylcentralite was quantifiable in two test samples. These results suggest there is a negligible potential for secondary transfer of primer and gunpowder GSR.     

“I could not have made it without them”: Examining Trainee Cohort Perspectives on MSW Education for Public Child Welfare

This article reports findings from an evaluation of an MSW child welfare training program focused on increasing retention of knowledgeable, competent and experienced child protective service workers. From qualitative data gathered as part of the process evaluation, we found the cohort effect to be the most salient factor participants experienced as contributing to their successful program completion and their 100% retention rate. Analysis of the cohort effect yielded five themes instrumental in participants' individual and collective success: mutual support, empowerment, belief in self and their finding of a home base which ultimately helped them to launch their professional selves.     

Do people feel more of a duty to vote in some elections?

Prior research on civic duty has focused on national elections, believed to be the most salient. Evidence on turnout gaps between election levels suggests that it is relevant to inquire whether people feel that they have the same duty to vote in national, subnational, and supranational elections. The article investigates this phenomenon, comparing citizens’ attitudes towards national, European, and regional elections in ten regions from four countries. About one-quarter of European citizens demonstrate a lesser degree of duty towards European rather than in national elections. Differences in duty levels for national and regional elections are infrequent and concentrated in regions with nationalist movements. Both rational and identity considerations explain why some individuals feel less obliged to vote in a particular election than in another, but the latter matter more.     

A Retrospective Study of the Investigation of Homicidal Childhood Asphyxial Deaths

As one of the leading causes of traumatic deaths in newborns, infants, and young children, there is no anatomic or microscopic feature that is pathognomonic for asphyxial deaths. Instead, pathologists rely on investigation information, including confessions and/or witness statements, and potential evidence at the scene. Twenty cases of homicidal newborn, infant, and young children asphyxial deaths were reviewed, which included death and police investigation reports and autopsy reports, as well as histology slides of lung sections. This series of homicidal asphyxial deaths highlight that, in a vast majority of such cases, the final cause and manner of death rulings are dependent on confession by the perpetrator. Furthermore, this series highlights the possible role of histology to help forensic pathologists better certify asphyxial deaths. Finally, this series emphasizes important investigation points and considerations at autopsy during the investigation of asphyxial deaths in newborns, infants, and young children.     

Decomposing firm-level productivity growth and assessing its determinants: evidence from the Americas

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on productivity growth in the manufacturing sector in Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Relying on plant-level data, we first decompose productivity and productivity growth into plant-level growth and market allocation forces. While the average productivity of the survivors is higher than the overall contribution of reallocation forces, during recessions the inverse is true and reallocation gives a positive, albeit small, contribution to aggregate productivity growth. Next we analyze how policy measures can determine allocative efficiency levels and growth, and find important scope for action on education, financial regulation, and structural reforms.     

The Dynamic Prediction of Criminal Recidivism: A Three-wave Prospective Study

A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73–.87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

PACT: A Collaborative Team Model for Treating High Conflict Families in Family Court

This article describes a court‐community model program for high conflict divorced families that is designed to reduce the level of inter‐parental conflict including: a) child exposure to inter‐parental conflict; and b) the frequency of re‐litigation over residential arrangements and parenting plans. The six‐session (16‐hour) program combines conflict resolution and group/community support. The program provides a “Personal Support Team” and “Personal Plan of Action” to help each parent control emotions and maintain agreement. The results of research conducted to explore the effect of the program on level of triangulation and inter‐parental conflict, as well as the frequency of re‐litigation over parenting plans, residential arrangements, and parenting time are reported.