Recidivism in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

Objectives

A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood.

Methods

Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched.

Results

We estimate in-sample 7 year recidivism rates in the 75–80 % range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79–89 %.

Conclusions

The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.

     

Gender targets and trickle-down effects: Avoiding the ‘decoupling dynamics’ that limit female representation in senior roles

Women constitute the majority of the Australian public sector workforce, but their representation in senior roles is not proportional. Australian public services have gender targets to improve the representation of women in senior roles. Based on previous research, targets are expected to first increase female representation at the target's focal level, such as executive level. Then they should initiate a trickle-down effect (TDE), increasing female representation at the level immediately below the target's focal level, such as the executive feeder level. However, the TDE observed in a state public service decelerated after a gender target was imposed. We identified whether individual departments had a consistent or inconsistent TDE and conducted 13 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Too many service-wide targets with low prioritisation of a gender target, as well as missing and ineffective practices, generated decoupling dynamics. Only departments with gender champions who had visible backing from the Chief Executive were able to keep the gender target coupled with practice to achieve its intended outcomes.

Points for practitioners

• Gender targets in Australian public services may not be achieving intended outcomes due to decoupling—a response to policies in which the policies are ignored and/or ineffective practices are implemented.
• Too many competing targets and limited accountability for achieving a gender target create a potential for decoupling by allowing individuals and groups to ignore or weakly adopt the policy.
• Integrated bundles of top-down (e.g. requiring at least two women on shortlists) and bottom-up practices (e.g. mentoring) can help avoid decoupling by ensuring women are appointed to senior roles and supported to progress through an organisation.
• Chief Executives are key to ensuring a gender target remains coupled with its implementation; Chief Executives must provide visible support to internal champions to make gender targets effective.