Addressing the National Academy of Sciences' challenge: a method for statistical pattern comparison of striated tool marks

In February 2009, the National Academy of Sciences published a report entitled "Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward." The report notes research studies must be performed to "…understand the reliability and repeatability…" of comparison methods commonly used in forensic science. Numerical classification methods have the ability to assign objective quantitative measures to these words. In this study, reproducible sets of ideal striation patterns were made with nine slotted screwdrivers, encoded into high-dimensional feature vectors, and subjected to multiple statistical pattern recognition methods. The specific methods employed were chosen because of their long peer-reviewed track records, widespread successful use for both industry and academic applications, rely on few assumptions on the data's underlying distribution, can be accompanied by standard confidence levels, and are falsifiable. For PLS-DA, correct classification rates of 97% or higher were achieved by retaining only eight dimensions (8D) of data. PCA-SVM required even fewer dimensions, 4D, for the same level of performance. Finally, for the first time in forensic science, it is shown how to use conformal prediction theory to compute identifications of striation patterns at a given level of confidence.     

Violence and Mental Illness: A New Analytic Approach

Empirical studies of violence and mental illness have used many different methods. Current state-of-the-art methods gather information from both subject and collateral interviews as well as official records. Typically these sources are treated as additive. Any report of a violent incident from any source is treated as true and all reported incidents are added to generate estimates of frequency. This paper presents a new statistical technique that uses the level of agreement between the sources of data to adjust those estimates. The evidence suggests that, although the additive technique for using multiple sources correctly estimates how many people are involved, it substantially underestimates the number of incidents. The new technique substantially reduces both false negatives and false positives.     

The Australian Right in the “Asian Century”: Inequality and Implications for Social Democracy

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the policy discourse of Australian right-wing governments, exploring how such governments have combined neo-liberal economic policies with social conservatism, populism, cultural nationalism and forms of authoritarianism. It also examines the resulting response of social democratic political parties. As a predominantly Western country situated in the Asia-Pacific region, Australian experience offers interesting insights into the domestic politics of right-wing governments facing the changing geo-political and geo-economic imperatives of the “Asian Century.” Conservative Australian governments have reasserted traditional Anglo-centric national identity and used competition from key Asian countries to further justify market-driven policies, reduced welfare benefits and reduced industrial relations standards. The social democratic Australian Labor Party has responded to right-wing government policy by placing an increased emphasis on challenging social and economic inequality. However, Labor’s own plans for equitable economic growth potentially underestimate the challenges posed by the intermeshing of the Australian and Asian economies and provide insights into the dilemmas that a changing geo-economics poses for Western social democracy more broadly. Meanwhile Australian conservatism is facing not just challenges from its social democratic opponent but also from far-right populist forces critical of globalisation.     

Participation, Performance, and Advancement of Women in Academic Science and Engineering: What is at Issue and Why

Using multi-staged methods developed in this research for coding/analysis of interview data, this article portrays women’s reported experiences of participation, performance, and advancement in academic science and engineering in a major technological institution. The methods and findings have implications for understanding the complexity underlying women’s participation and performance, and for practices and policies to support advancement of women faculty, particularly those in research universities.     

Multilateralism in a unipolar world: the UN Security Council and Iraq

The end of the cold war brought a new era in international politicsthat had the potential for creating a more cooperative and peacefulworld. At the heart of this ‘new world order’ wasto be the United Nations Security Council, which would finallybe able to fulfill its obligations under the UN Charter. Inthe immediate post-cold war years it appeared that this optimismwas well founded as the Security Council became increasinglyactive in authorizing peacekeeping and peace-building missions.Just over a decade later, however, the crisis over Iraq againbrought serious concerns regarding the UN's purpose and legitimacy.This article examines the circumstances surrounding the recentUN Security Council dispute in order to illuminate the meritsof multilateral cooperation. It also asks, more fundamentally,whether multilateralism can be sustained in a unipolar world.