Electoral participation in the Netherlands: Individual and contextual influences

Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election.     

Testing theories of electoral cycles

Abstract. A common form of electoral cycle theory asserts that support for government parties is dependent on the proportion of an inter-election interval which has passed since the last national election. Weekly opinion poll data for the Netherlands are used to test whether or not such 'cyclical' patterns of change can be detected in the inter-election periods of 1977–1981 and 1982–1986. The relative merits of two methods of analysis, polynomial regression and ARIMA, are discussed and demonstrated. The latter is shown to be the more suitable of the two; the former may yield misleading outcomes. The analyses reported do not display even a glimpse of empirical support for the alleged cyclical phenomenon. The ARIMA analyses can be used, however, to describe how processes and events in a society impinge on (noncyclical) developments in the electoral support for political parties.     

Die politischen Konsequenzen der niedrigen Wahlbeteiligung bei der Europawahl 2009

If electoral abstention is linked to party preferences, low turnout—as witnessed in European Parliament elections—may hurt some parties and benefit others. In order to assess this possibility, we compare, in the member states of the EU, parties’ vote shares in the 2009 European Parliament elections with the results that would have been obtained had turnout reached the level of national general elections. We find that the effects of low turnout are minimal, and that—except for a single seat—higher turnout would not have resulted in a different composition of the European Parliament.     

Notes on the empirical analysis of cyclical processes

Abstract. This short note discusses a few general data-related problems which occur in analyses of cyclical processes, and offers a brief overview of the advantages and disadvantages of the various approaches and techniques that can be employed. The conclusion is that one should be flexible in approach; it is always possible to model data in more than one way. A prudent strategy will always include the specification and testing of various models.     

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

Cooperative learning vs Confucian heritage culture's collectivism: confrontation to reveal some cultural conflicts and mismatch

Asian countries with Confucian heritage culture (CHC) such as China, Vietnam, Singapore, Korea and Japan have been proven to share characteristics of a collectivist society. Researchers agree that this collectivist mentality strongly supports cooperation that CHC's learners/workers best perform in groups. However, little is known about the other side of the coin. Whilst applying a method born in one culture to another, cultural differences have been forgotten. The so-called global application has led to a situation in which a Western model is forced to launch in a completely new and different context. This new context and the existing cultural values are not always incorporated into the implementation of a Western concept of cooperative learning. Consequently, it does not necessarily follow that all forms of cooperative learning will surely succeed within a CHC environment. As a result of ignoring, stereotyping and underestimating cultural and educational characteristics, in CHC countries, the implementation of constructivism and one of its applications—cooperative learning—has ended up in failures, suspicion or resistance. The authors would like to question (1) the fixed assumption that “group-work surely works in CHC countries” and (2) the domination of developmentalism in education nowadays and its mismatch with cultural assets. With this paper, the authors contribute to the recent call for culturally appropriate pedagogy.