Social network analysis as a tool for criminal intelligence: understanding its potential from the perspectives of intelligence analysts

Over the past two decades an increasing number of researchers have applied social network analysis (SNA) to various ‘dark’ networks. This research suggests that SNA is capable of revealing significant insights into the dynamics of dark networks, particularly the identification of critical nodes, which can then be targeted by law enforcement and security agencies for disruption. However, there has so far been very little research into whether and how law enforcement agencies can actually leverage SNA in an operational environment and in particular the challenges agencies face when attempting to apply various network analysis techniques to criminal networks. This paper goes some way towards addressing these issues by drawing on qualitative interviews with criminal intelligence analysts from two Australian state law enforcement agencies. The primary contribution of this paper is to call attention to the organisational characteristics of law enforcement agencies which, we argue, can influence the capacity of criminal intelligence analysts to successfully apply SNA as much as the often citied ‘characteristics of criminal networks’.     

Sugar and spice and everything nice? Exploring institutional misconduct among serious and violent female delinquents

Purpose

Despite an emerging body of research on the institutional behavior and adjustment of delinquent males, there exists little information on the incarceration experiences of female delinquents. The present study explored the incidence, prevalence, and determinants of institutional misconduct among a sample of 139 serious and violent delinquent females sentenced to state juvenile incarceration.

Methods

Secondary data analysis was used for the present study. Data utilized were derived from information originally gathered by correctional staff during intake at a state Youth Correctional System (a pseudonym) and during an offender's entire incarceration through on-site diagnostic processes, staff observations, official records, and offender self-reports.

Results

Members of the study sample engaged in roughly 700 incidents of major misconduct and more than 12,000 instances of minor institutional misconduct during their incarceration. Results from negative binomial regression models examining four different types of institutional misconduct revealed that age at commitment, offense type, mental health status, and gang affiliation were related to the expected rate of misconduct, although this varied by misconduct type.

Conclusions

Institutionalization is not necessarily a period of desistance from offending for all delinquent girls. As institutional misconduct may impact post-release recidivism, it is important to identify and intervene with at-risk juveniles during periods of incarceration.     

Civic Engagement – A Problem in Search of a Solution?

This article discusses the use of community partnerships to produce civic engagement. In two undergraduate courses during the Fall 2016 semester, students created products that met the stated needs of local nonprofit organizations. Students indicated a positive reaction to their experiences in qualitative assessment instruments, and the community partners were appreciative of students’ output. Given the semester-long timeframe of the projects, it is unknown whether they will lead to greater civic engagement on the part of students or the communities in which the projects took place.     

An Exploration of a Model of Social Networks and Multilateral Negotiations

Multilateral (many-party) negotiations are much more complex than traditional two-party negotiations. In this article, we explore a model of social network activity, especially clique formation, among parties engaged in multilateral negotiation and the implications that such networks might have on the negotiation process and outcome. Using data collected from 375 subjects participating in a negotiation simulation, our results reveal that, primarily, the negotiator's perspectives of clique formation (coalition building) — both his or her own and the other party's — have unique effects on the integrative, problem-solving approaches used in the process and on the negotiator's satisfaction with outcomes. Secondarily, centrality (manifest as emergent power) has a positive effect on both problem solving and satisfaction. Interestingly, we found that those players who emerged as the most dominant and powerful were not as satisfied (in relative levels) as those who were less powerful.     

The progress of the betting in a baseball game: A comment

In their article in the current issue of this journal, Sauer et al. compare the evolution of prices of in-game betting markets of baseball games to an empirical model of scoring based on the probability of various game events occurring. The authors correctly suggest this in-game betting market provides an opportunity to examine the efficiency of gambling markets, as the value of the security being examined can be known with a greater degree of precision than the fundamental value of securities being traded in general financial markets. While we appreciate the progress that has occurred, we believe that with some fairly simple changes, the authors may be able to improve the precision of their model to the point where a more powerful commentary on potential market efficiency could be developed. We offer suggestions on more precisely matching of the two sources of data, timing of the events, and dealing with games in which there is a clear pre-game favorite. We close with suggestions for extensions.     

Judging guilt and accuracy: highly confident eyewitnesses are discounted when they provide featural justifications

Jurors are heavily swayed by confident eyewitnesses. Are they also influenced by how eyewitnesses justify their level of confidence? Here we document a counter-intuitive effect: when eyewitnesses identified a suspect from a lineup with absolute certainty (‘I am completely confident’) and justified their confidence by referring to a visible feature of the accused (‘I remember his nose’), participants judged the suspect as less likely to be guilty than when eyewitnesses identified a suspect with absolute certainty but offered an unobservable justification (‘I would never forget him’) or no justification at all. Moreover, people perceive an eyewitness’s identification as nearly 25% less accurate when the eyewitness has provided a featural justification than an unobservable justification or simply no justification. Even when an eyewitness’s level of confidence is clear because s/he has expressed it numerically (e.g. ‘I am 100% certain’) participants perceive eyewitnesses as not credible (i.e. inaccurate) when the eyewitness has provided a featural justification. However, the effect of featural justifications – relative to a confidence statement only – is maximal when there is an accompanying lineup of faces, moderate when there is a single face and minimal when there is no face at all. The results support our Perceived-Diagnosticity account.     

The evolution of norms: American policy toward revolution in Iran and Egypt

Is there a growing norm against violence towards civilians that constrains how the United States deals with its client states? This article examines two similar cases that suggest there is. In Iran in 1978 and in Egypt in 2011, the United States faced a possible revolution by a democratic/Islamist opposition, yet American policy makers gave their major regional ally opposite advice. In 1978, the White House urged the Shah to crack down on the opposition, and, in 2011, it pressed the Mubarak regime, as well as other regimes, to refrain from violence. This indicates that in situations where the American government is culpable for a potential bloodbath, policy makers are loath to take on that responsibility, which significantly shapes their policy toward revolution in a way that it did not when President Carter called the commitment to human rights “absolute.”     

Sexual Minority-Related Victimization as a Mediator of Mental Health Disparities in Sexual Minority Youth: A Longitudinal Analysis

Sexual minority youth (youth who are attracted to the same sex or endorse a gay/lesbian/bisexual identity) report significantly higher rates of depression and suicidality than heterosexual youth. The minority stress hypothesis contends that the stigma and discrimination experienced by sexual minority youth create a hostile social environment that can lead to chronic stress and mental health problems. The present study used longitudinal mediation models to directly test sexual minority-specific victimization as a potential explanatory mechanism of the mental health disparities of sexual minority youth. One hundred ninety-seven adolescents (14–19 years old; 70 % female; 29 % sexual minority) completed measures of sexual minority-specific victimization, depressive symptoms, and suicidality at two time points 6 months apart. Compared to heterosexual youth, sexual minority youth reported higher levels of sexual minority-specific victimization, depressive symptoms, and suicidality. Sexual minority-specific victimization significantly mediated the effect of sexual minority status on depressive symptoms and suicidality. The results support the minority stress hypothesis that targeted harassment and victimization are partly responsible for the higher levels of depressive symptoms and suicidality found in sexual minority youth. This research lends support to public policy initiatives that reduce bullying and hate crimes because reducing victimization can have a significant impact on the health and well-being of sexual minority youth.     

Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms and Suicidality Among Heterosexual and Sexual Minority Youth

Sexual minority youth report higher rates of depression and suicidality than do heterosexual youth. Little is known, however, about whether these disparities continue as youth transition into young adulthood. The primary goals of this study were to describe and compare trajectories of adolescent depressive symptoms and suicidality among sexual minority and heterosexual youth, examine differences in depressive symptoms and suicidality trajectories across sexual orientation subgroups, and determine whether there are gender differences in these longitudinal disparities. Four waves of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health were analyzed using latent curve modeling (N = 12,379; 53 % female). Results showed that the rates of depressive symptoms and suicidality in early adolescence were higher among sexual minority youth than among heterosexual youth, and that these disparities persisted over time as participants transitioned into young adulthood. Consistent with previous cross-sectional studies, the observed longitudinal disparities were largest for females and for bisexually-identified youth. Sexual minority youth may benefit from childhood and early adolescent prevention and intervention programs.