Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data

Although the relationship between unemployment and crime has been a longstanding interest in criminology, there is little agreement about appropriate models for analyzing this relationship. David Greenberg's (this issue) discussion highlights two issues that raise questions about recent research on the unemployment–crime relationship. First, he extends the work of Hale and Sabbagh (1991) and argues that cointegration methods should be used instead of first-differenced regression models to analyze unemployment and crime time series data. Second, he argues that previous attempts to test his strain theory linking unemployment to the age distribution of crime rely on flawed hypotheses, inappropriate data, and faulty measurement. In this paper, I address both of Greenberg's claims. I begin with a discussion of the relative utility of cointegration analysis and of first-differenced regression models for the analysis of the unemployment–crime relationship, focusing on the link between theory and statistical model. I then discuss the possibility of ever testing and falsifying Greenberg's strain theory.     

Developmental explanations of delinquent behavior among siblings: Common factor vs. transmission mechanisms

We compare the statistical fit of two developmental explanations of delinquent behavior using longitudinal sibling data. The transmission effects model relates future delinquency to prior delinquency, delayed sibling effects, and unique environment. The common-factor effects model adds to these influences a latent variable representing persistent causes shared by siblings. These two models were fit to longitudinal data on 470 sibling pairs interviewed on three occasions. The common-factor effects model fit the data more closely than the transmission model. Nonmutually exclusive interpretations of the common effects model include (a) personality dispositions and (b) unchanging aspects of the social environment such as concurrent sibling effects and siblings' common friends.     

Changing legal standards for proof of causation in hazardous waste tort cases. Plaintiffs' problems and congressional responses

Increasing public awareness and concern over the possible dangers of exposure to toxic chemicals and hazardous wastes has resulted in a variety of lawsuits brought by plaintiffs claiming injury resulting from chemical exposure. The legal system and its traditional approach to tort cases demands that a plaintiff demonstrate that a particular chemical substance was the "cause in fact" of his injury. However, a plaintiff's inability to present credible scientific evidence sufficient to pinpoint conclusively the specific cause of his injury or disease, particularly in cancer cases, leads to defeat in courts of law. This article discusses the existing barriers to plaintiffs' recovery in toxic tort cases and reviews congressional proposals designed to ease plaintiffs' evidentiary burden and increase their chances of prevailing.     

Adapting measures of social climate for use with individuals with intellectual developmental disability in forensic settings

The social climate of forensic settings is thought to impact on a number of important clinical and organisational outcomes and is, therefore, an important construct in relation to the successful functioning of forensic units. A variety of self-report questionnaires have been developed to objectively measure the social climate of forensic settings (e.g. the Correctional Institutions Environment Scale and the Essen Climate Evaluation Schema), however these questionnaires have not been validated for individuals with intellectual developmental disabilities (IDD). Given the prevalence of IDD in prison and forensic psychiatric settings and the potential impact of such cognitive deficits on the ability to complete a range of self-report questionnaires, it is important to consider the potential reliability and validity of existing social climate measures in IDD populations. This article will, therefore: (1) examine the cognitive, linguistic and response format difficulties that may arise when administering self-report measures of social climate in IDD populations; (2) consider potential adaptations to existing measures of social climate that might make them more suitable for use with IDD populations; and (3) identify important directions for future research in the area.