Twenty years of homicide and robbery in Chicago: The impact of the city's changing racial and age composition

Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) arrest and offense data for Chicago for 1960 to 1980 and population data from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses are used to assess the extent to which demographic changes help explain trends in the city's homicide and robbery arrests. The results indicate that a changing racial composition contributed to changes in the age composition of Chicago's population as well as to changes in the homicide rate. Age-specific analysis by race and gender suggests that as much as 24% of the total increase in homicide arrests and 45% of the increase in robbery arrests (from 1962 to 1980) can be attributed to an increase in the number of nonwhite men in the population. Increasedrates of arrest of nonwhite men appear to account for large parts of the increases in homicide and robbery arrests, with increased rates for white men and nonwhite women also accounting for some of these increases. The paper closes with a discussion of the issues raised by these trends for Chicago and other urban areas.Revision of a paper presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Cincinnati.     

Victims and Offenders in Two Crime Statistics Programs: A Comparison of the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) overcomes a basiclimitation of the traditional summary Uniform Crime Reporting program (UCR)by collecting victim information. Using this new victim information tocompare National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and NIBRS results, wefind some similarities as well as some differences in the characteristics ofvictims and offenders suggested by the two programs. Similarities appear inthe proportions of men and women involved as victims and offenders forrobbery and assault. Comparisons are more difficult and the proportions lesssimilar for property offenses. Nevertheless, the results suggest that whenthe NIBRS is fully developed, it will be an important source of informationon the characteristics of both victims and offenders. Even before theredesigned program is fully implemented, one of the most important featuresof NIBRS reports will be their ability to provide local area victimizationinformation. In addition, the NIBRS will provide much more information onarrests and the characteristic of offenders than any existing program.     

Using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) to Test Estimates of Arrestee and Offender Characteristics

National-Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) information for 1993 iscompared with two other sets of homicide data to assess the acuracy ofprocedures for estimating age-, sex-, and race-specific arrest counts fromtraditional Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data. The simultaneous age, race, andsex characteristics of offenders provided in the NIBRS arrest and offender segmentsare compared with estimates of the same characteristics derived from summaryUCR arrest data. The results suggest that using UCR marginal totals toestimate arrest counts by race and sex produces reasonably accurateestimates of the number of black and nonblack male arrests for murder andother offenses. Estimates of arrests of females by race and sex are lessaccurate, probably because of the relatively small number of arrests ofwomen and girls. Estimating male arrest counts for specific age groups alsoproduces reasonably accurate estimates. The results suggest that previousresearch employing such estimates may have been misleading in the estimatesof female arrests by race but accurate in the estimates of male arrests byrace. Although the use of summary UCR-based estimates in futurecross-sectional research will become increasingly unnecessary as the NIBRSreplaces the current UCR program, time series research designs on arrest andcrime trends will continue to require estimates.