Predicting the effect of substance abuse treatment on probationer recidivism

Support for the effectiveness of substance abuse treatment to reduce substance use and recidivism among populations supervised by the criminal justice system continues to grow in substance abuse and criminal justice literature. Recent studies show that a variety of programs including the Breaking the Cycle program and drug courts appear to result in improved outcomes for offenders. In this paper, we examine the effect of non-residential substance abuse treatment on arrest. Our data are for almost 134,000 ‘drug-involved’ individuals sentenced to probation in Florida between July 1995 and June 2000. Nearly 52,000 of these individuals received non-residential substance abuse treatment, while 81,797 did not. Our approach is a methodologically simple one that entails stratifying our data by treatment status, estimating logit and negative binomial models of arrest for each of the two datasets, and then applying each model to both datasets. This approach, which requires that both groups include subjects for whom treatment is appropriate, is analogous to using regression models to predict outcomes for new values of independent variables. For each observation in the dataset, we use the models to predict the expected outcomes for each individual under two scenarios – receiving non-residential treatment and receiving no treatment. Summing over these individual estimates provides an estimate of the total numbers of arrests that would be expected under different levels of population exposure to treatment. Results suggest that non-residential treatment reduced both the expected numbers of individuals who recidivated (i.e., were arrested) and the expected total numbers of arrests in the 12 and 24 months following placement on supervision.**RTI is an independent organization dedicated to conducting innovative, multidisciplinary research that improves the human condition.     

A randomized experimental study of sharing crime data with citizens: Do maps produce more fear?

The larger roles of the community in crime prevention and improvements in technology have increased police–citizen communication and the distribution of information from police departments to private citizens. Combined, these changes have led to the current movement among law enforcement agencies toward sharing both summary reports and maps of crime with community groups. Although the dissemination of crime information is intended to benefit community members, there is a lack of empirical evidence demonstrating the effects of crime mapping on citizen perceptions and fear of crime. This experiment compared three formats for disseminating crime data; two popular types of crime maps (i.e., graduated symbol and density) and the traditional tabular format of crime statistics. A randomized experimental design was used to measure residents fear of crime and their perception of the safety of different areas of Redlands, CA. Overall, residents who viewed either type of map reported less fear than those who viewed tabular statistics. Respondents who viewed graduated symbol maps consistently reported less fear than either density maps or tabular statistics. However, there were differences depending on the type of map. While graduated symbol maps were associated with the lowest levels of fear of robbery, theft or assault; density maps produced different reactions depending on the area of the city. Finally, the maps did not stigmatize high crime areas of Redlands. Where statistically significant differences existed, respondents who were given maps were more likely to recommend someone move into an area than those who were given tabular statistics.     

Oppositional defiant disorder: A systematic review of evidence of intervention effectiveness

This research synthesis examines rigorous evaluations of interventions for children diagnosed with ODD. The primary goal was to identify and synthesize through meta-analysis what is known regarding the effectiveness of various treatments. A secondary goal was to assess the degree to which treatment effectiveness is being evaluated in multiple domains. Seven studies were identified that measured outcomes in six domains. As in prior reviews, interventions demonstrate improvements in the child’s behavior at home and parental stress/strain. Support for improvements in behavior and performance in school is not as strong due in part to a scarcity of attention to the multiple domains of functioning. The interventions reviewed here demonstrate some benefit and no harm; however, there is room to strengthen the research base.     

Generating and using evidence to guide public policy and practice: Lessons from the Campbell Test-bed Project

This paper offers lessons from a three-year Test-bed project that tested systematic review practices developed by the Campbell Collaboration and the Cochrane Collaboration. Under the Test-bed project 14 systematic reviews were completed of interventions in crime prevention, social welfare, and education. (References to the products of these test-bed reviews are included in the reference list, preceded by an asterisk). Building on this experience, the authors recommend structuring future reviews around well-defined review topics more explicitly focused on particular interventions, and constraining literature search to evaluations of relevant interventions. Reviewers should analyze and report findings from RCTs separately from non-RCT studies and report on impact estimates in natural units, instead of relying solely on effect size metrics. Further, reviewers should report intent-to-treat estimates as the causally valid outcomes from RCTs. Analyses of impacts for treated sub-groups should be reported as non-experimental findings. More attention should be given to the minimum detectable effect a study can support, as well as any information on the possible costs and benefits of the intervention. Pooling results from studies of disparate interventions, populations, and contexts is not recommended. Meta-analysis should be reserved for homogeneous clusters of interventions studies. Forest plots are helpful for presenting study findings and confidence limits. However, simple bar charts preserve important information on the base levels for the outcomes. Finally reviewers should define a priori the minimum data set or required elements that allow study inclusion, and use this information systematically in making decisions about what evidence to admit into the review.     

Global Environment Threats and a Divided Northern Community

The EU, Japan, and the US now share many environmental norms, laws, and institutions and cooperate on international environmental matters through numerous bilateral and multilateral channels. They disagree, however, on how to deal with some of the most serious issues facing the global environment and the quality of human life including wide-scale biodiversity loss, climate change, the use of genetically modified (GM) organisms; the trans-boundary movement of hazardous wastes, and chemical safety. As these are all issues that require the involvement of developing countries if global environmental protection efforts are to be effective, the discord that exists among the Northern states is of tremendous significance. The US has pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol arguing that the treaty is poorly designed and would be detrimental to the US economy. Japan and the EU have had to try to find a way to bring the treaty into force without the participation of the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and to convince participating countries to meet their targets even though this may put them at a competitive disadvantage. In the case of biodiversity loss, although the US initiated international negotiations on biodiversity preservation, it has refused to join the EU and Japan in ratifying the Convention on Biological Diversity. There are also differences between the US, on the one side, and Japan and the EU on the other, regarding the use of GM organisms. This article analyses the reasons for the differences that have emerged among northern states in their international environmental policy positions and what the implications of this northern policy divide are for the effectiveness and legitimacy of international environmental protection efforts.     

Issues and Options for the Post-2012 Climate Architecture – An Overview

This article provides a background for the Developing post-2012 scenarios project, an international study which looks at a range of scenarios that countries may wish to consider for a post-2012 framework to tackle climate change. The purpose of the article is threefold. Firstly, it provides a review of the literature for the future climate regime. Secondly, it provides a set of criteria that are used in order to evaluate whether the scenarios provided in the other articles in this Special Edition are likely to be effective. Thirdly, the article spells out some of the more general policy implications rising from these scenarios.     

Meeting Human Development Goals with Low Emissions : An Alternative to Emissions Caps for post-Kyoto from a Developing Country Perspective

This paper proposes a post-Kyoto scenario on commitment issues from a developing country perspective in which commitments by developing countries will be linked to human development goals as the first priority and ultimate goal, and then translated to carbon goals. Three different types of commitments are discussed with particular reference to developing country participation, including voluntary, conditional and obligatory. For low-carbon development, there should be no luxurious emissions but human development needs should not be compromised. A progressive and internationally coordinated taxation on carbon is suggested as an incentive mechanism under this approach. However, there are a few issues requiring further examination, including specification of basic needs and determination of progressive tax rates.     

Financial Institutions between Effectiveness and Legitimacy – A Legal Analysis of the World Bank,Global Environment Facility and Prototype Carbon Fund

Environmental financing is one of the crucial issues of international environmental law and its implementation. From an environmental perspective a prerequisite for success is that financial resources are used in an environmentally effective way. Whether the World Bank, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) can be perceived as effective environmental actors has to be measured by their objectives, their potential to promote accepted environmental standards and their relevant funding practices. After significant improvements of their environmental policies, the World Bank must be considered the most important institution for environmental financing due to its involvement in environmental trust funds but also in regard to its regular lending practices. The GEF remains exceptional due to its institutional structure and scope, whereas the PCF is an example of public–private partnerships that might be a model for future financing via trust funds. Since acceptance of institutions can only be created if they are considered to be legitimate, legitimacy is closely tied to effectiveness. The main criteria for legitimacy are state consent and the equality of states as well as supplementary considerations such as transparency and public participation. From this perspective the World Bank, GEF and PCF structures of voting and participation have come a long way, and despite their particularities and deficiencies they reflect to a varying degree elements of legitimate decision making.     

The impact of program developers as evaluators on criminal recidivism: Results from meta-analyses of experimental and quasi-experimental research

Using meta-analysis, we report on an investigation of the evaluator's influence in the treatment setting on criminal recidivism outcomes. Many evaluators and users of evaluation of social interventions worry that mixing of the roles of program developer and program evaluator may bias results reported in intervention studies in a positive direction. We first review the results of prior investigations of this issue across 50 prior meta-analyses, finding 12 that tested the impact of investigator influence in the treatment setting. Eleven of these reported that effect size increased positively, sometimes substantially so, when evaluators were influential or involved in the treatment setting. We followed this with a meta-analysis of 300 randomized field trials in individually focused crime reduction, also finding intervention studies in which evaluators who were greatly influential in the treatment setting report consistently and substantially larger effect sizes than other types of evaluators. We discuss two major views — the ‘cynical’ and ‘high fidelity’ theories — on why this is consistently the case, and conclude with a further agenda for research.