Risky business? Evaluating market risk of equity investment proposals to reform social security

A number of options have been proposed to address the expected financing shortfall of Social Security in the next century. Most basic aspects of the various reform proposals are captured by the three options offered by the Advisory Council on Social Security in 1996. Common to all three options is that they would permit either public or private equity investment. This article discusses the economic risks involved in public and private equity investments as a funding solution for Social Security. To quantify the risks involved in equity investment, stochastic simulations are based on the economic assumptions of the 1998 Trustees Report of Old Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance in combination with different assumptions about the rates of return on bonds and stocks. For public equity investment, financial market risk remains significant for at least 40 years. For individual accounts, I find that the chance of doing worse than with Social Security or of falling into poverty in retirement is generally high, yet varies with income level, gender, family status, and employment history. In general, women, married workers with dependent spouses, or workers with incomplete work histories fare worse than men, single workers, or workers with complete work histories when compared either to the current system or to the poverty line. © 2000 by the Association for Public Policy and Management.     

How does social trust lead to better governance? An attempt to separate electoral and bureaucratic mechanisms

This paper explores questions related to the association between social trust and governance. In particular, the paper explores whether the trust-governance association is mainly a reflection of political responsiveness to the demands of the electorate or of the supply of honest politicians and bureaucrats. After outlining some simple theory, the findings suggest that the association reflects a causal influence of both types of trust on institutions of economic-judicial governance while electoral institutions are not associated with social trust. Assessed at the sample mean, the value of social trust under high political competition as evaluated by the compensating income variation is substantial.     

Critical Management Studies and public administration: Reinterpreting democratic governance using critical theory and poststructuralism

In this article we present the schools of thought comprising Critical Management Studies (CMS), explore their implications for public administration, and provide an alternate definition of democratic governance. We synthesize and describe the “modern stream,” inspired by the Frankfurt School, and the “postmodern stream,” associated with poststructuralist authors. Despite significant epistemological and ontological differences, these perspectives complement each other and cast new light on democratic governance. We present the respective theories of Foucault and Habermas, explore their implications for public administration, reconcile their views on power as a basis for a normative definition for so‐called good governance, and redefine the concept of “democratic governance.”     

Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic Argentina

Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975–83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.     

Bone Area Histomorphometry

Quantifying the amount of cortical bone loss is one variable used in histological methods of adult age estimation. Measurements of cortical area tend to be subjective and additional information regarding bone loss is not captured considering cancellous bone is disregarded. We describe whether measuring bone area (cancellous + cortical area) rather than cortical area may improve histological age estimation for the sixth rib. Mid‐shaft rib cross‐sections (n = 114) with a skewed sex distribution were analyzed. Ages range from 16 to 87 years. Variables included: total cross‐sectional area, cortical area, bone area, relative bone area, relative cortical area, and endosteal area. Males have larger mean total cross‐sectional area, bone area, and cortical area than females. Females display a larger mean endosteal area and greater mean relative measure values. Relative bone area significantly correlates with age. The relative bone area variable will provide researchers with a less subjective and more accurate measure than cortical area.     

Stimulating academic patenting in a university ecosystem: an agent-based simulation approach

The Journal of Technology Transfer - Technology transfer to society is—in addition to research and teaching—widely acknowledged as a third mission of modern universities. Academic...     

“A different world” exploring and understanding the climate of a recently re-rolled sexual offender prison

Understanding how sexual offenders experience prison and its environment is important because such experiences can impact on rehabilitation outcomes. The purpose of this research investigation was to explore the rehabilitative and therapeutic climate of a recently re-rolled sexual offender prison. The research took a mixed methods approach and consisted of quantitative and qualitative phases. There were differences between prisoners and staff on their perception of the prison climate and for prisoner and staff relationships. The qualitative results helped to explain the quantitative findings and added a more nuanced understanding of the experience of the prison, the nature of prisoner and staff relationships and the opportunities for personal growth within the prison. The study has important implications for prisons that co-locate sexual offenders and want to provide an environment conducive to rehabilitation.     

HIV/AIDS prevention: building on community strengths in Ajegunle,Lagos

This paper builds upon field research in Ajegunle, Nigeria, which suggests that effective HIV/AIDS prevention requires a much higher degree of independent community participation. In exploring ways to achieve this, we suggest that assessing community strengths provides positive scope for understanding and utilising a much wider variety of HIV/AIDS responses which have not been previously used in the context of community development. Community-based approaches also encourage a deeper understanding of locally-specific vulnerability issues that surround HIV and AIDS. Such initiatives can be linked to trends that value the knowledge and capacities of neglected local people and build on their resources, including their networks, relationships and trust. However, the connection to, and use of, the resources of international NGOs (INGOs) remain central to success. If an interactive community-based agenda of working with local level resources receives enough acceptance at the higher levels of the INGOs, the results could be very significant. Such international/local agreements, where INGOs seek to work more closely with local community groups and their people on shared agendas, could begin to tackle some of the key structural issues, especially conflict and poverty, that exacerbate HIV/AIDS at the grassroots and are not responsive to purely medical solutions.

Prévention du VIH/sida: développer les points forts des communautés à Ajegunle, Lagos

Ce document se base sur des recherches menées sur le terrain à Ajegunle, au Nigeria, qui suggèrent que, pour être efficace, la prévention du VIH et du sida requiert un degré beaucoup plus élevé de participation communautaire indépendante. Dans le cadre d'une étude des manières d'arriver à ce résultat, nous suggérons qu'une évaluation des points forts de la communauté donne des perspectives positives pour la compréhension et l'utilisation d'une variété beaucoup plus importante d'interventions en matière de VIH/sida qui n'ont pas été précédemment lancées dans le contexte du développement communautaire. Les approches fondées sur les communautés encouragent par ailleurs une compréhension plus profonde des questions de vulnérabilité propres au niveau local autour du VIH et du sida. Les initiatives de ce type peuvent être reliées à des tendances qui accordent une importance aux connaissances et aux capacités des populations locales délaissées et qui se basent sur leurs ressources, y compris leurs réseaux, leurs relations et leur confiance. Cependant, la connexion avec les ressources des ONG internationales (ONGI) et leur utilisation restent essentielles pour le succès. Si un ordre du jour interactif fondé sur les communautés du travail avec les ressources locales reçoit une acceptation suffisante aux échelons plus élevés des ONGI, les résultats pourraient être très considérables. Les accords internationaux/locaux de ce type, dans le cadre desquels les ONGI cherchent à travailler en plus étroite collaboration avec les groupes communautaires locaux et leurs membres sur des ordres du jour partagés, pourraient commencer à remédier à des problèmes structurels clés, en particulier les conflits et la pauvreté, qui ont pour effet d'exacerber le VIH/le sida au niveau de la base populaire et ne peuvent pas être résolus par des moyens purement médicaux.

Prevenção do HIV/AIDS: aproveitando os pontos fortes da comunidade em Ajegunie, Lagos

Este artigo baseia-se em uma pesquisa de campo em Ajegunle, Nigéria, que sugere que a prevenção efetiva do HIV/AIDS exige um grau muito maior de participação da comunidade independente. Ao explorar maneiras para se alcançar isto, sugerimos que avaliar os pontos fortes da comunidade oferece um escopo positivo para se compreender e utilizar uma variedade muito mais ampla de respostas ao HIV/AIDS que não foram utilizadas anteriormente no contexto de desenvolvimento da comunidade. Abordagens baseadas na comunidade também incentivam uma compreensão mais profunda de questões de vulnerabilidade localmente específica que cercam o HIV e AIDS. Tais iniciativas podem ser conectadas a tendências que valorizam o conhecimento e a capacidade de pessoas locais negligenciadas e aproveitar seus recursos, inclusive suas redes de trabalho, relacionamentos e confiança. Porém, a conexão com recursos de ONGs Internacionais (ONGIs) e o uso deles permanecem centrais para o sucesso. Se uma agenda de trabalho interativa baseada na comunidade com recursos no âmbito local obtém aceitação suficiente nos níveis mais altos das ONGIs, os resultados podem ser muito significativos. Tais acordos internacionais/locais, em que ONGIs buscam trabalhar de maneira mais próxima com grupos da comunidade local e suas pessoas em agendas compartilhadas, poderiam começar a lidar com algumas das questões estruturais centrais, especialmente conflito e pobreza, que agravam o HIV/AIDS na base e não são suscetíveis a soluções puramente médicas.

La prevención del VIH/SIDA: confiando en las fortalezas de la comunidad. Una experiencia en Ajegunie, Lagos

Este ensayo se centra en una investigación de campo realizada en Ajegunle, Nigeria, la cual demostró que para conseguir una prevención efectiva del VIH/SIDA se requiere de una profunda e independiente participación comunitaria. En su investigación sobre cómo lograr este objetivo, los autores sugieren que valorar las fortalezas comunitarias puede ser una base sólida para concebir y utilizar una gama de respuestas ante el VIH/SIDA más amplia de la que hasta ahora se aplica en el contexto del desarrollo comunitario. Los métodos basados en la comunidad también contribuyen a que se entiendan mejor las vulnerabilidades específicas y locales ante el VIH/SIDA. Estas iniciativas pueden contribuir a valorar más los hasta ahora ignorados conocimientos y capacidades de las personas locales, los cuales se basan en sus recursos propios como sus redes, sus relaciones sociales y su confianza. Sin embargo, el acceso a, y el uso de, los recursos de las ONG internacionales (ONGI) siguen siendo factores importantes para lograr el éxito. Si las directivas de las ONGI consideraran una agenda de trabajo interactiva con las comunidades utilizando los recursos locales, los resultados podrían ser muy significativos. Con este tipo de acuerdos internacionales/locales en los que las ONGI intentan trabajar más estrechamente con los grupos comunitarios y las personas a nivel local compartiendo estrategias, podrían comenzar a atajarse algunos de los principales problemas estructurales, en especial en situaciones de conflicto y pobreza, que agravan el VIH/SIDA entre personas de la base y que no pueden resolverse únicamente con soluciones médicas.     

Corporate response strategies to regulatory uncertainty: evidence from uncertainty about post-Kyoto regulation

A better understanding of firms’ response strategies to regulatory uncertainty enables policymakers to improve policymaking efficiency and to enhance the effectiveness of regulation. Based on a literature review, we categorize responses according to their objective toward regulatory uncertainty into four strategies: avoidance, reduction, adaptation, and disregard strategies. Unique data from a worldwide cross-industry survey show that firms predominantly pursue reduction, and to a lesser extent adaptation and disregard strategies, in response to post-Kyoto regulatory uncertainty. Surprisingly, firms in fact only sporadically pursue avoidance strategies, in contradiction to their own public announcements commonly made during policymaking to realize such strategies. The degree of regulatory uncertainty perceived and its interpretation as a threat increase the pursuit of most of these strategies. In addition, firms’ response strategies to post-Kyoto regulatory uncertainty differ across industries and partly across regions.