Predicting discharge in forensic psychiatry: the legal and psychosocial factors associated with long and short stays in forensic psychiatric hospitals

In Germany, both the number of patients treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals and the average inpatient treatment period have been increasing for over thirty years. Biographical and clinical factors, e.g., the number of prior offences, type of offence, and psychiatric diagnosis, count among the factors that influence the treatment duration and the likelihood of discharge. The aims of the current study were threefold: (1) to provide an estimate of the German forensic psychiatric patient population with a low likelihood of discharge, (2) to replicate a set of personal variables that predict a relatively high, as opposed to a low, likelihood of discharge from forensic psychiatric hospitals, and (3) to describe a group of other factors that are likely to add to the existing body of knowledge. Based on a sample of 899 patients, we applied a battery of primarily biographical and other personal variables to two subgroups of patients. The first subgroup of patients had been treated in a forensic psychiatric hospital according to section 63 of the German legal code for at least ten years (long-stay patients, n=137), whereas the second subgroup had been released after a maximum treatment period of four years (short-stay patients, n=67). The resulting logistic regression model had a high goodness of fit, with more than 85% of the patients correctly classified into the groups. In accordance with earlier studies, we found a series of personal variables, including age at first admission and type of offence, to be predictive of a short or long-stay. Other findings, such as the high number of immigrants among the short-stay patients and the significance of a patient's work time before admission to a forensic psychiatric hospital, are more clearly represented than has been observed in previous research.     

Intimate Partner Violence and Psychological Distress among Young Couples: Analysis of the Moderating Effect of Social Support

Young adults are more likely to experience intimate partner violence (IPV) than older adults. Little is known about the effect of confiding to others about sustained violence on the mental health of victims. The objective of this study was to explore the links between IPV, help-seeking behaviors and psychological distress by gender in a sample of 233 young couples.Our results indicate the frequency of sustained psychological violence, but not physical violence, was positively associated to distress. For women, seeking help from a greater number of confidents moderated the association between violence and psychological distress. For men, results showed that frequencies of physical and psychological violence were both positively linked to distress. However, unlike women, social support had no buffering effect on men’s distress. These findings increase our understanding of the effects of social support on young adults’ distress following episodes of IPV.     

The problem of single parent/child paternity analysis--practical results involving 336 children and 348 unrelated men

In a certain amount of paternity investigations, only DNA from child and alleged father is analyzed, thus increasing the possibility of false paternity inclusions. The aim of this study was to determine how many wrong paternity inclusions could be detected in a rather small geographical area comparing empirical results from 336 children and 348 men (13-15 STRs were investigated per person). This comparison between each child and all unrelated men (i.e. all putative fathers from the other cases) with an especially designed computer program resulted in 116,004 man/child pairs. Less than three excluding STRs were found in 1666 child/unrelated man pairs (1.44% of the comparisons). At least one unrelated man with only two or less STR mismatches could be determined for 322 children (95.8% of all investigated children). In 26 comparisons no STR mismatches between a child and an unrelated man were detected, thus at least one and up to three "second father(s)" under 350 men could be found for 23 children, if the mother is excluded. Paternity probabilities between 95.475% and 99.996% were calculated. Our results underline the difficulties in motherless paternity cases using only STR analysis and advise great precaution in assigning verbal predicates such as "paternity proven" in those investigations.     

Testing the Trauma Model of Violence

The present study sought to explore the relationship between trauma and violence, as measured by the Traumatic Events Questionnaire and the Conflict Tactics Scale. Using Multiple Regression Analysis, several types of traumatic experiences were studied as predictors to violent behavior in 55 graduate students. Results suggest that trauma as a set, as well as being the victim of a violent crime, are significantly related to future violent behavior. However, no other individual predictor variable, including being the victim of childhood physical abuse, significantly predicted future violence. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

Risking Housing Need

It is commonly suggested that social housing is allocated on the basis of 'need'. The authors, however, suggest that the concept of risk provides a much better explanation of the complex interplay of interests involved in the allocation process. In particular, risk explains developing allocation methods in low-demand areas. The thesis is exemplified by drawing upon data derived from the authors' original research on the rehousing of sex offenders.     

Explaining Women's Rights Realignment: Convention Delegates, 1972–1992

Since the early 1970s, the major American parties have moved from general consensus on women's rights issues to sharp polarization. While previous efforts to explain this realignment have identified pieces of the puzzle, these explanations have been generally incomplete and atheoretical. I argue that party positions are determined by the perceived value of specific issue positions for maintaining and expanding the party's coalition of electoral support. Thus, changes in both the composition of the party's coalition and the way the issue is defined and understood can bring about changes in the issue positions adopted by parties. Using the Convention Delegate Studies (1972–1992), this research suggests that both replacement (coalition change) and in the case of Democrats, conversion (caused by issue change) have been important mechanisms for bringing about party realignment on women's rights. This explanation both encompasses causal factors highlighted by previous scholars and points to other important contributing causes.