The Problem of Predictability: Unstable Systems, Traffic Dividers and Arms Races

Social scientists seem to do a good job predicting some major events in history and spectacularly poor job with others. This paper is concerned with the puzzle that this poses. It investigates systems of interaction and suggests that, in principle, some criteria can be established to aid our intuitions about what might and might not be predictable. It differs from the more usual approaches which tend to treat history in monolithic terms. Instead it examines a simple concrete model of processes like economic growth and coalition formation.     

Locus of control and sex offenders with an intellectual disability

Locus of control has been implicated as an important construct that is related to treatment outcome for several groups of offenders, including sexual offenders. However, little attention has been paid to how this construct is related to sexual offending by people with intellectual disabilities. Given this, 41 participants with intellectual disabilities were recruited into three groups: sex offenders who had undergone psychological treatment, sex offenders who had no history of treatment, and nonoffenders. All participants completed measures of locus of control and distorted cognitions. There was a significant difference between those who had and had not completed treatment in terms of cognitive distortions relating to sexual offending. There was no significant difference between the three groups on the measure of locus of control, with all three groups endorsing an external locus of control. Three possible explanations for how locus of control relates to sexual offending by people with intellectual disabilities is explored and discussed.     

Forecasting the 2005 General Election: A Neural Network Approach

Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks.     

Promoting Public Service Integrity: A Case for Responsible Accountability

We discuss below difference between the concepts of accountability and responsibility, in the context of government administration. We argue that New Zealand's public sector reforms, in particular, have depended on an essentially mechanistic as distinct from an organic interpretation of public organisations. A mechanistic approach focuses disproportionately on notions of organisational accountability at the expense of responsibility, and as a consequence may prove counterproductive over the longer term in maintaining high standards of ethical probity. A concept of responsible accountability needs to be developed further as a means of countering this possibility. We speculate on whether the emphasis on contractualism has enhanced or undermined an integrity-based as opposed to a compliance-based ethics regime, and the possible implications of this for the maintenance of ethical standards.     

21世纪的大学

在本演讲中 ,作者论述了“2 1世纪的大学”这一主题。首先 ,作者探讨了全球化背景下大学与社会关系的变化及大学应对自身的全球化的方式。作者评述了关于大学与政府、社会关系的不同观点 ,指出了大学开展科研、服务社会的重要性 ,同时当前大学承受着来自政府、社会的过高期望。作者反思了在大学卷入社会活动、推动经济发展中的利弊 ,指出了长远规划、科研合作、国际流动、教学与科研相结合的重要意义。作者认为在技术创新和技术转化中 ,大学需要处理好科学与技术、开发的关系 ,以及大学与工商界的关系。作者特别探讨了大学 -工业合作间的复杂关系 ,指出了二者间的合作可能及不同性质 ,并介绍了牛津大学的有关策略。在结论部分 ,作者提出了他关于大学的使命的观点 :探索自然和人类世界 ;培养独立思考的、负责任的下一代。作者认为 ,把大学在社会中的作用仅仅局限在推动经济发展方面 ,是对大学目标的一种误解