Community structural predictors of spatially aggregated motor vehicle theft rates: Do they replicate?

Community-level motor vehicle theft (MVT) is not spatially random but is influenced by the structural composition of the community. Work to date did not provide a clear picture of the structural correlates of community-level MVT rates for two reasons. Cross-sectional studies had been limited to a single point in time (one wave design). In addition, studies had not adequately controlled for MVT rates in adjoining communities (spatially autocorrelated rates). The current study addressed these limitations. Drawing on structural correlates highlighted by factorial ecology and past work on motor vehicle theft, it anticipated cross-sectional connections between status, stability, age composition, and racial heterogeneity. It sought to learn if these connections persisted at two points in time spanning a decade. Census block group data from a midwestern city were merged with geocoded vehicle theft data, and a comprehensive spatial lag variable was constructed (Land & Deane, 1992). At both points in time, communities with higher MVT rates had lower socioeconomic status, and were surrounded by other communities with higher MVT rates. Community processes driving the connection between status and vehicle theft were suggested. The strong spatial dependency of MVT rates suggests attributes, events, or longer-term trends located in a section of a city may be affecting the communities located there. Issues for prevention were addressed.     

Why things are never quite as simple in practice: opportunities for creating a system of social dispute resolution in Russia

The article explores four themes based on my participation in the inception phase of a DFID‐funded project in Russia. The first is to assess the role of technical assistance in providing new models for social development and institutional change. What obstacles and difficulties do donors face in introducing changes in practices, which are comparatively new in their own countries? The second theme is the degree to which external changes put pressure on governments to legislate in favour of vulnerable groups. In this case the break‐up of the Soviet Union and subsequent impoverishment of large sectors of society provide the context. Third, the article examines the potential for change through the setting up of a ‘Conflict Commission’ in the pilot region of Samara oblast. Here, there is a comparatively supportive environment with evidence of a shared commitment by the state, their services and civil society. An outstanding and challenging question for this experiment is the degree to which this shared axis for change can become the basis for wider legal reform at the federal level. The article will finally consider the role of monitoring and evaluation in a pilot project. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.