“Just give me a number!” Practical values for the social discount rate

A major reason the quality of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) varies widely is inconsistent use of the social discount rate (SDR). This article offers guidance about the choice of the SDR. Namely, we recommend the following procedures: If the project is intragenerational (does not have effects beyond 50 years) and there is no crowding out of private investment, then discount all flows at 3.5 percent; if the project is intragenerational and there is some crowding out of investment, then weight investment flows by the shadow price of capital of 1.1 and then discount at 3.5 percent; if the project is intergenerational and there is no crowding out of investment, then use a time‐declining scale of discount rates; if the project is intergenerational and investment is crowded out, then convert investment flows during the first 50 years to consumption equivalents using a shadow price of 1.1, and then discount all of these flows at 3.5 percent, and discount all flows after the 50th year using time‐declining rates. We then compare current discounting practices of U.S. federal agencies with our estimates. Consistent use of the recommended rates would eliminate arbitrary choices of discount rates and would lead to better public sector decision‐making. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Asymmetric Effects of Intergovernmental Grants: Analysis and Implications for U.S. Welfare Policy

Theories of federal grants to states and localities suggestthat these grants have a stimulative effect on spending, causingrecipient governments to expand and contract programs alongwith changes in the grants. However, policymakers may responddifferently to grant decreases than to grant increases becausethey face political and bureaucratic pressures to expand programs.These asymmetric reactions may depend on specific politicalstructures. Pooled time-series regressions of data from theAid to Families with Dependent Children program across 46 statesfrom 1965 to 1994 demonstrate state government responses togrant changes. Bureaucratic pressures and proposals lead statesto expand their welfare benefits upon increases in federal grants,but not to contract them upon decreases in federal grants. Withregard to the 1996 welfare reforms, this study indicates thatthe switch to block grants will lead to little or no state reductionin welfare payments.     

Determining the human origin of fragments of burnt bone: a comparative study of histological, immunological and DNA techniques.

In situations where badly burnt fragments of bone are found, identification of their human or non-human origin may be impossible by gross morphology alone and other techniques have to be employed. In order to determine whether histological methods were redundant and should be superseded by biomolecular analyses, small fragments of artificially burnt bone (human and non-human) were examined by quantitative and standard light microscopy, and the findings compared with newer biomolecular analyses based on identifying specific human albumin by ELISA and amplifying human mitochondrial DNA by PCR. For quantitative microscopy, reference data were first created using burnt bones from 15 human and 20 common domestic and farm animals. Measured osteon and Haversian canal parameters were analysed using multivariate statistical methods. Highly significant differences were found between values for human and non-human bone, and a canonical discriminant function equation was derived, giving a predicted correct classification of 79%. For the main study, samples of cortical bone were taken from three fresh cadavers, six human skeletons and ten freshly slaughtered animals and burnt by exposure to temperatures ranging from 800 to 1200 degrees C; charred fragments of human cortical bone from two forensic cases were also tested. Quantitative microscopy and canonical discriminant function gave the correct origin of every sample. Standard microscopy falsely assigned burnt bone from one human skeleton and one forensic case to a non-human source, but otherwise gave correct results. Human albumin was identified in five individuals, including one of the forensic cases, but mitochondrial DNA could not be amplified from any of the human bone. No false positive test results were seen with either biomolecular method; and human albumin and mitochondrial DNA were correctly identified in all unburnt control specimens. It was concluded that histological methods were not redundant and that quantitative microscopy provided an accurate and consistent means of determining the human or non-human origin of burnt bone and was more reliable than standard microscopy or the newer immunological and DNA techniques tested here.     

Discrimination and Instructional Comprehension: Guided Discretion,Racial Bias,and the Death Penalty

This study links two previously unrelated lines of research: the lack of comprehension of capital penalty-phase jury instructions and discriminatory death sentencing. Jury-eligible subjects were randomly assigned to view one of four versions of a simulated capital penalty trial in which the race of defendant (Black or White) and the race of victim (Black or White) were varied orthogonally. Dependent measures included a sentencing verdict (life without the possibility of parole or the death penalty), ratings of penalty phase evidence, and a test of instructional comprehension. Results indicated that instructional comprehension was poor overall and that, although Black defendants were treated only slightly more punitively than White defendants in general, discriminatory effects were concentrated among participants whose comprehension was poorest. In addition, the use of penalty phase evidence differed as a function of race of defendant and whether the participant sentenced the defendant to life or death. The study suggest that racially biased and capricious death sentencing may be in part caused or exacerbated by the inability to comprehend penalty phase instructions.     

Political Identity,Public Memory and Urban Space: A Case Study of Parcul Carol I,Bucharest from 1906 to the Present

This article analyses the inter-relationship between political identity, public memory and urban space in South-east Europe through a case study of Parcul Carol I (Carol I Park) in Bucharest, Romania from 1906 to the present. The article analyses how the urban cultural landscape has been reshaped to support the political ambitions of three successive regimes—Romania as a kingdom and liberal constitutional monarchy (1881–1938); state-socialist Romania (1947–1989); and the post-socialist Romanian state from 1989. The article highlights complex continuity from the state-socialist period under post-socialism, rather than destruction of the landscape of state-socialism, combined with the return of pre-socialist landscape elements. The article argues for the need for studies of the fate of state-socialist urban landscapes under post-socialism which consider the complexities introduced by the persistence of landscape elements from the pre-socialist and state-socialist periods and their combination with pre-socialist and post-socialist landscapes to produce hybrid memory-scapes and spaces of the nation.     

Explaining State High-Courts' Selective Use of State Constitutions

Although state constitutions offer substantial policy-makingopportunities, state courts are reluctant to base decisionson independent state constitutional law. Using state high-courtjudicial review decisions from 1981 to 1985, we tested a modelpredicting countermajoritarian state-law rulings. Legal andpolitical variables best predicted state constitutional decisions.Intragovernmental conflicts were particularly likely to resultin state-law decisions, while courts were especially reluctantto base civil liberties decisions on state constitutions. Casesbrought by government officials were likely to be decided onstate constitutional principles; state-law decisions were alsolikely to emerge from conservative states and states with tradilionalisticpolitical cultures. Although these latter findings stand apartfrom previous research connecting some forms of judicial activismto liberal political environments, they seem consistent withthe element of American conservatism seen particularly in traditionalisticstates (in the South and Southwest) demanding protection ofstate autonomy in the realms of policy development historicallyleft to the states.     

The Eurogroup,power and accountability

This article considers the role of the Eurogroup in EU decision‐making, a topic that is under‐theorised, more especially given its importance in the overall EU schema. The Eurogroup's power has grown very considerably, largely because of the enhanced role that it has been accorded as a result of the financial crisis, with the result that its power no longer accords with the Treaty provisions that specify its function. The article sets out the Treaty foundations of the Eurogroup, examines its role in EU decision‐making, the rationale for its increased power, and the extent to which it is politically and legally accountable.     

The influence of implicit theories and offender characteristics on judgements of sexual offenders: a moderated mediation analysis

The psychological factors underpinning responses to sexual offenders are beginning to receive increased empirical scrutiny. One such factor is offender representativeness, which refers to the extent to which a given offender example matches a stereotype of those who are typically labelled as “sexual offenders”. Using a sample of 252 community members, we examined the role of implicit theories about sexual offenders (ie whether sexual offending is seen as fixed or malleable) in mediating the relationship between affective responses to sexual offenders and policy outcome judgements. We found support for this mediating effect, although this was eliminated when participants were presented with a “non-representative” offender vignette. We argue that the relationship between affective responses and policy judgements is contingent on the activation of a sexual offender stereotype, and that this link can be disrupted via the increased presentation of non-stereotypical case examples. Implications for public debate and professional practice are discussed.