Addressing problems with traditional crime linking methods using receiver operating characteristic analysis

Purpose. Through an examination of serial rape data, the current article presents arguments supporting the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis over traditional methods in addressing challenges that arise when attempting to link serial crimes. Primarily, these arguments centre on the fact that traditional linking methods do not take into account how linking accuracy will vary as a function of the threshold used for determining when two crimes are similar enough to be considered linked. Methods. Considered for analysis were 27 crime scene behaviours exhibited in 126 rapes, which were committed by 42 perpetrators. Similarity scores were derived for every possible crime pair in the sample. These measures of similarity were then subjected to ROC analysis in order to (1) determine threshold‐independent measures of linking accuracy and (2) set appropriate decision thresholds for linking purposes. Results. By providing a measure of linking accuracy that is not biased by threshold placement, the analysis confirmed that it is possible to link crimes at a level that significantly exceeds chance (AUC = .75). The use of ROC analysis also allowed for the identification of decision thresholds that resulted in the desired balance between various linking outcomes (e.g. hits and false alarms). Conclusions. ROC analysis is exclusive in its ability to circumvent the limitations of threshold‐specific results yielded from traditional approaches to linkage analysis. Moreover, results of the current analysis provide a basis for challenging common assumptions underlying the linking task.     

The drug abstainer

This paper uses data on tenth graders from the 2016 Caring Communities Youth Survey (CCYS) to examine the lifetime abstainer from drugs. The abstainer has been a part of Life Course Development literature; within each of the several ages of onset models. Using a model which examines the abstainer from each drug and all drugs, the effect of Prosocial Factors (peer and school) are examined. Findings indicate a very low relationship between high protective/prosocial factors and abstaining. The research of Moffitt that there may be several subtypes of abstainers is supported.     

Restoring Confidence: Replacing the Fixed‐term Parliaments Act 2011

This article considers both the Fixed‐term Parliaments Act 2011 (FTPA) and the political constitution, to place the former in its political and constitutional context. It begins by setting out the background to the FTPA – which was a part of a Coalition agreement – and considers difficulties with the most commonly‐made arguments in favour of fixed‐term parliaments. The second part of the article considers the impact and potential practical legal consequences if the FTPA is repealed without any replacement, arguing that it will only be possible to revive the ‘dissolution’ prerogative by express words in a new Act. The final part of the article addresses the question of whether the prerogative should be revived, before arguing both that it should not and that a statutory power to call an election should be conferred on the Prime Minister subject to a vote by simple majority in the House of Commons.     

Investigating Probation Strategies with Juvenile Offenders: The Influence of Officers’ Attitudes and Youth Characteristics

Probation officers are the focal point for most interventions with delinquent youths in the juvenile justice system. The present study examines probation strategies and interventions in a sample of 308 probation officers who completed the Probation Practices Assessment Survey (PPAS) in a web-based survey. The PPAS measures six probation approaches: deterrence, restorative justice, treatment, confrontation, counseling, and behavioral tactics. Structural equation models and latent class analyses showed that probation officers use multiple approaches with delinquent youths consistent with the balanced and restorative justice movement. Younger youths, high-risk youths, and youths with prior social service involvements are likely to receive more intensive interventions. The implications of these findings for improving probation practices with delinquent youth are discussed.     

Interpersonal Relationships and the Development of Behavior Problems in Adolescents in Urban Schools: A Longitudinal Study

The purpose of this study was to investigate the trajectories of behavioral problems for a sample of predominately minority adolescents (n = 212, 91% African-American and/or Hispanic, 45% boys, 55% girls) in a large, urban school district and to determine the impact of parental and peer relationships, gender, and risk status on their development during middle and high school. Multi-level growth modeling was the primary statistical procedure used to track internalizing and externalizing behavioral problems across time. Results indicated that behavioral problems as rated by students’ teachers declined significantly for both boys and girls, a finding that is in direct contrast to previous studies of adolescent behavior. The quality of parental relationships was a strong predictor of both types of behavior whereas the quality of peer relationships predicted only internalizing behavioral symptoms. These findings suggest that behavioral trajectories may be somewhat unique for this population underscoring the need for additional research in this area. The findings also have implications for intervening with children and youth who display behavioral problems during critical developmental periods.     

Predicting Homophobic Behavior Among Heterosexual Youth: Domain General and Sexual Orientation-Specific Factors at the Individual and Contextual Level

As a form of bias-based harassment, homophobic behavior remains prominent in schools. Yet, little attention has been given to factors that underlie it, aside from bullying and sexual prejudice. Thus, we examined multiple domain general (empathy, perspective-taking, classroom respect norms) and sexual orientation-specific factors (sexual orientation identity importance, number of sexual minority friends, parents’ sexual minority attitudes, media messages). We documented support for a model in which these sets of factors converged to predict homophobic behavior, mediated through bullying and prejudice, among 581 students in grades 9–12 (55 % female). The structural equation model indicated that, with the exception of media messages, these additional factors predicted levels of prejudice and bullying, which in turn predicted the likelihood of students to engage in homophobic behavior. These findings highlight the importance of addressing multiple interrelated factors in efforts to reduce bullying, prejudice, and discrimination among youth.