A Unified Theory and Test of Extended Immediate Deterrence

We present a unified theory and test of extended immediate deterrence—unified in the sense that we employ our theoretical deterrence model as our statistical model in the empirical analysis. The theoretical model is a straightforward formalization of the deterrence logic in Huth (1988) and Huth and Russett (1984) , coupled with private information concerning utilities. Our statistical analysis suggests that the attacker and defender's decisions are influenced by the balance of forces, nuclear weapons, defender-protege military alliances, arms transfers, and trade, as well as the regime types of those involved. Many of these findings contradict previous research by Huth (1988) and Huth and Russett (1988) . We find that many of the variables involved in the deterrence calculus are nonmonotonically linked to the probability of deterrence success or war. We illustrate the results with case studies of the Soviet-Japanese dispute over Manchukuo (1937–1938) and the Berlin Blockade (1948).     

Medicare prospective payment: anticipated effect on hospitals, other community agencies, and families

The switch to prospective payment for hospitals under Medicare is expected to have ramifications in a number of different areas. This paper addresses a select number of those areas: hospital organization and management, other community agencies, and families. Questions are raised as to the capacity to provide adequate care in response to the increased demand for care outside the hospital setting that will result from the new payment system.     

The Department Secretaries:A Profile of a Changing Profession

The position of departmental secretaries has been under debate. There are claims they have been politicised; they have been placed on term appointments. This article examines the careers of departmental secretaries for the last 50 years. It illustrates the changes in their length of tenure, age of departure, mobility and qualifications. The recent profile shows the need for debate about the position and the future of departmental secretaries.     

The INSPIRE Framework: How Public Administrators Can Increase Compliance with Written Requests Using Behavioral Techniques

Public administrators rely on written communications to send information to citizens and stakeholders, and they are among the heaviest users of the postal service. Behavioral science research has identified several techniques that public administrators can use to increase compliance with written requests and, in turn, increase effectiveness. Currently, however, many written communications from government bodies are not written in a manner that utilizes these techniques. It remains an ongoing challenge for public administrators to identify, understand, and use these techniques in the written communications sent by their organizations. This article presents a framework capturing seven prominent techniques in a simple mnemonic—INSPIRE—that is already being used by several government bodies in Australia. It also provides practical examples of how to use each technique and demonstrates that using these techniques could result in large aggregate improvements in effectiveness and socially desirable outcomes of public administrators' written communications.