A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.     

Resolution of Nonmarital Adolescent Pregnancy and the Transition to Adulthood: Educational Attainment and Financial Well-being

This paper compares educational and financial outcomes in early adulthood for four groups of men and women: those who never experienced a nonmarital adolescent pregnancy, those who ended a nonmarital adolescent pregnancy by abortion, those who married or cohabited and became parents in response to an adolescent pregnancy, and those who became parents but did not marry or cohabit following an adolescent pregnancy. The analyses are based on self-reports of 6,074 young men and women who were first surveyed as seventh grade students in Houston, Texas in 1971 and surveyed again between 1980 and 1988. Educational and financial outcomes in adulthood vary significantly depending on the occurrence of a nonmarital adolescent pregnancy, the resolution of nonmarital adolescent pregnancy, and the age at which adolescent pregnancy occurs. Results are discussed in relation to public policies encouraging family formation and educational support and occupational training for teen parents.     

Untangling the Causal Effects of Sex on Judging

We explore the role of sex in judging by addressing two questions of long‐standing interest to political scientists: whether and in what ways male and female judges decide cases distinctly—“individual effects”—and whether and in what ways serving with a female judge causes males to behave differently—“panel effects.” While we attend to the dominant theoretical accounts of why we might expect to observe either or both effects, we do not use the predominant statistical tools to assess them. Instead, we deploy a more appropriate methodology: semiparametric matching, which follows from a formal framework for causal inference. Applying matching methods to 13 areas of law, we observe consistent gender effects in only one—sex discrimination. For these disputes, the probability of a judge deciding in favor of the party alleging discrimination decreases by about 10 percentage points when the judge is a male. Likewise, when a woman serves on a panel with men, the men are significantly more likely to rule in favor of the rights litigant. These results are consistent with an informational account of gendered judging and are inconsistent with several others.     

The effects of state policy design features on take-up and crowd-out rates for the State Children's Health Insurance Program.

We evaluate the effects of state policy design features on SCHIP take-up rates and on the degree to which SCHIP benefits crowd out private benefits. The results indicate overall program take-up rates of approximately 10 percent. However, there is considerable heterogeneity across states, suggesting a potential role of inter-state variation in policy design. We find that several design mechanisms have significant and substantial positive effects on take-up. For example, eliminating asset tests, offering continuous coverage, simplifying the application and renewal processes, and extending benefits to parents all have sizable and positive effects on take-up rates. Mandatory waiting periods, on the other hand, consistently reduce take-up rates. In all, inter-state differences in outreach and anti-crowd-out efforts explain roughly one-quarter of the cross-state variation in take-up rates. Concerning the crowding out of private health insurance benefits, we find that between one-quarter and one-third of the increase in public health insurance coverage for SCHIP-eligible children is offset by a decline in private health coverage. We find little evidence that the policy-induced variation in take-up is associated with a significant degree of crowd out, and no evidence that the negative effect on private coverage caused by state policy choices is any greater than the overall crowding-out effect. This suggests that states are not augmenting take-up rates by enrolling children that are relatively more likely to have private health insurance benefits.     

Are Americans underinvesting in their children?

He has written widely on the Economics of health care. Among his books are The Economics of Physician and Patient Behavior; Economic Aspects of Health; How We Live;and The Health Economy.     

Problem boys in young adulthood: Teachers' ratings and twelve-year follow-up

In an earlier paper we reported that teachers' ratings of child guidance clinic children were associated with the children's global adjustment in young adulthood. Teachers' ratings, especially the peer relations measure, far surpassed other data sources in predicting general adult mental status. Other sources were developmental history, social history, family information, and psychiatric and psychological evaluations. The purposes of the present investigation were to evaluate mother-son reliability on adulthood information, and to determine whether teacher-rated behaviors of clinic boys predicted specific adult behaviors or were only globally related. Interviewed separately when sons were young adults, mothers and sons closely agreed on sons' adult behavior, with mothers somewhat underreporting sons' negative behaviors. The major finding was that one teacher-rated item,fails to get along with other children, was closely associated with a wide spectrum of adult behaviors. This was not due to the peer relations indicator serving as a global statistic reflecting general childhood impairment. It was also found that composite scores of childhood and adulthood bad conduct were significantly related to each other.Data collection was funded by NIMH Grant #MH-23441-02A1, and by the William T. Grant Foundation, Loretta K. Cass, Principal Investigator. The authors bear sole responsibility for the data analyses and interpretation presented here.Received Ph.D. from University of Oklahoma. Current research interests are in prediction of adult mental status from childhood indexes.Received Ph.D. from Washington University. Current research interests are in life history research, particularly alcoholism and schizophrenia.Received B. A. from Washington University.     

Detection of a primer-binding site polymorphism for the STR locus D16S539 using the Powerplex 1.1 system and validation of a degenerate primer to correct for the polymorphism

Quality assurance samples submitted from the NCSBI as part of a contract with TBTG to outsource DNA Database samples showed unexpected discrepancies for the locus D16S539 when all other loci yielded identical results. Discrepancies observed included allele drop out and an imbalance in sister alleles with samples returned from TBTG. This led to a comprehensive review of the technical procedures used between the two laboratories to determine the cause of the discrepancies noted for the locus D16S539, since both laboratories were using the PowerPlex 1.1 typing kit from the Promega Corporation. The NCSBI and the TBTG utilize different extraction methods (organic extraction vs. FTA) and amplification conditions (AmpliTaq vs AmpliTaq Gold), respectively, so the exact cause of discrepancy observed was not immediately apparent. Experiments at the NCSBI associated the observed allele drop out and the imbalance of the sister alleles with the use of AmpliTaq Gold and a hot start procedure. Sequencing data revealed that a point mutation resides on the D16S539 primer-binding site that reaches polymorphic levels in African-American populations. This led to the development of a degenerate primer by the Promega Corporation to detect "missing" alleles when AmpliTaq Gold is used. The degenerate primer was then thoroughly tested to show its efficacy in detecting the "true" D16S539 profile when used.