Evaluation of the ADViSOR project: Cross‐situational behaviour monitoring of high‐risk offenders in prison and the community

Purpose. The release on licence of prisoners who have committed serious violent and/or sexual offences requires rigorous risk assessment and risk management. This study evaluates the ADViSOR project, designed to examine the contribution of prison behaviour monitoring to community supervision of a sample of the highest risk offenders released in England and Wales under Multi‐Agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA). Method. The offence‐related behaviour of a total group (n= 25) of MAPPA prisoners in one prison, due for release in the following year to two adjacent probation trust areas, was monitored. Their behaviours in the community were followed up for 1 year. A comparison group (n= 36) was formed of the total number of MAPPA prisoners released from prisons nationally to the same two probation trusts. Results. The frequencies of ADViSOR negative behaviours in prison and the community were strongly correlated, r_s (25) = .55, p= .004, as were positive behaviours, r_s (25) = .56, p= .004. No statistically significant correlations were found either under usual MAPPA processes in the ADViSOR prison or comparison group prisons. The frequency of ADViSOR negative behaviours statistically significantly predicted, with 92% accuracy, the offenders who would reoffend or be recalled to prison (n= 8). Statistically significant similarities in types of behaviour were also identified. Conclusion. Results are discussed in terms of the contribution of behavioural monitoring to risk prediction with high‐risk offenders, consistency of cross‐situational behaviours, and implications for policy and practice.     

Workforce Localization among Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Ghana

Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have gradually localized their workforce since they began operating in Ghana in the 1980s. Examining their workforce localization patterns, the Chinese SOEs in Ghana appear to be diverse in their business practices and highly autonomous from the Chinese state. Our hypothesis on the substantial autonomy of Chinese SOE overseas subsidiaries, which is consequent to the lack of management control from the Chinese central authority since the Chinese economic reform, contrasts the dominant assumption in the China–Africa debate, in which Chinese SOEs are depicted as closely linked to the Chinese state and/or as the arms of the new Chinese policy in Africa. The workforce localization process of Chinese SOEs in Ghana is largely determined by factors like profit maximization objective, market competition and political pressure. The localization experience is similar to those of Western companies in Africa where complete workforce localization takes a long time to achieve.     

Reducing criminal recidivism: evaluation of Citizenship, an evidence-based probation supervision process

‘Citizenship’ is a structured probation supervision program based on ‘what works’ principles, designed for offenders on community orders or licenses supervised within the UK National Probation Service. The program was evaluated using survival analysis comparing the reconvictions of a cohort of all offenders in one probation area eligible for Citizenship over a 2-year period (n = 3,819) with those of a retrospective cohort of all eligible offenders in the same probation area receiving ‘traditional’ probation supervision (n = 2,110), controlling for risk related factors. At the 2-year stage, 50% of offenders in the comparison group had reoffended compared to 41% in the experimental group, and the difference between the survival curves was statistically significant. The hazard ratio was 0.69, which represents a 31% reduction in reconvictions in the experimental group over the proportion in the comparison group at any given time. Time to violation of a supervision order or post custody license was also statistically significantly longer in the experimental group. A key element of the program, promoting contact with community support agencies, was statistically significantly related to reduced reoffending in the Citizenship group. The overall effects remained after controlling for differences in risk scores although effectiveness varied by risk level. Contrary to other ‘what works’ research findings, the program was found to be most effective across the low–medium and medium–high risk thresholds, and was not effective with the highest risk group. This difference can be explained and is discussed in terms of risk, need, and responsivity principles. The Citizenship program was found to be cost-beneficial.     

How Authoritarianism Intensifies Punctuated Equilibrium: The Dynamics of Policy Attention in Hong Kong

The punctuated equilibrium theory contends that government attention allocation is universally leptokurtic in that long periods of stability are punctuated by bursts of rapid and radical change; the empirical evidence in support of this claim is however exclusively drawn from democratic systems. The absence of electoral politics and institutional decentralization in authoritarian regimes could presumably affect institutional friction; whether and how this might pose as a qualification to the thesis is of major interest. By analyzing four streams of government actions in Hong Kong from 1946 to 2007 straddling the colonial and postcolonial regimes, we have found that government processes are generally leptokurtic even under authoritarian regime institutions, with the degree of the dispersion of decision‐making power across the streams of actions affecting the magnitude of punctuation. We have also found that punctuation was greater when the political system was more centralized but declined as the political system democratized.