Veto players, electoral incentives and international commitments: The impact of domestic institutions on intergovernmental organization membership

Abstract.  The conventional literature on international cooperation in general, and intergovernmental organization membership in particular, depicts a regular, positive relationship between wealthy capitalist democracies and participation in international institutions. While empirical evidence supports this assertion, it says little about the mechanisms, and the accompanying variation among them, by which states enter into international institutions. This study distinguishes industrialized democracies along two dimensions: the nature of their constitutional structures and the organization of their electoral politics. Variations in these features produce variations in the institutional constraints and electoral incentives that matter in determining state participation in international organizations. Results of a pooled cross-sectional time series analysis of 23 democracies in 1981 and 1992 indicate that the structure of governing institutions and the nature of electoral systems account for much of the variation in intergovernmental organization membership. This study concludes that domestic institutions matter in determining international cooperation through international organizations – a novel insight overlooked by most international relations theories.     

ADMINISTRATIVE FOXES IN EDUCATIONAL CHICKEN COOPS: An Examination of the Critique of Judicial Activism in School Desegregation Cases

Recent arguments against the use of the courts as a route for fashioning and implementing complex school desegregation plans are evaluated in light of the experiences of one district where the courts and federal government did not assume an active role. The political consequences of nonenforcement are explored as are the methods employed by school officials to maintain their control over educational policy-making. On the basis of this evidence, the author argues that an assertive judiciary is necessary, if desegregation policies and procedural reforms are to be successfully introduced.     

LIFE-COURSE TRAJECTORIES OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF OFFENDERS*

The point of departure for this paper is Nagin and Land (1993), who identified four distinctive offending trajectories in a sample of 403 British males—a group without any convictions, “adolescence-limiteds,”“high-level chronics,” and “low-level chronics.” We build upon that study with a detailed analysis of the distinguishing individual characteristics, behaviors, and social circumstances from ages 10 through 32 of these four groups. The most salient findings concern the adolescence-limiteds. By age 32 the work records of the adolescence-limiteds were indistinguishable from the never-convicted and substantially better than those of the chronic offenders. The adolescence-limiteds also seem to have established better relationships with their spouses than the chronics. The seeming reformation of the adolescence-limiteds, however, was less than complete. They continued to drink heavily and use drugs, get into fights, and commit criminal acts (according to self-reports).     

The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting

This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.     

REVISITING “WHAT THEY THINK”: ADOLESCENT DRINKING AND THE IMPORTANCE OF PEER BELIEFS

The association between delinquent peers and delinquent behavior is among the most consistent findings in the criminological literature, and several recent studies have raised the standards for determining the nature and extent of peer influence. Despite these advances, however, key questions about how deviant behavior is socially transmitted remain unresolved. In particular, much of the research examining peer influence has been limited to peer behavior, despite a rich literature supporting the salience of beliefs, such as expectations and moral approval, in shaping behaviors. In the current study, I model the peer influence and selection processes with longitudinal social network analysis to reexamine the contributions of peer beliefs and behaviors to adolescent drinking. I find evidence that beliefs related to peer drinking have both a direct and an indirect impact on behavior and play an important role in the friendship selection process. These results highlight the importance of understanding how peers influence deviant behavior and suggest that peer beliefs are an important part of this relationship.     

From Communism to Confucianism: China's Alternative to Liberal Democracy

Buoyed by its creditor's hold on the United States and its ability to withstand the harsh winds of recession blowing from across the Pacific, China has graduated in its own mind from an emerging economy to a world power. From their confrontation with Google to their renewed repression of dissidents to their dissing of President Obama, China's leaders clearly feel that the time has come for the world to accomodate China, not vice‐versa. Is the West ready for this new reality? Is China's new arrogance well‐founded, or is it going to be the next bubble to burst? As it moves beyond “the primary stage of socialism” is it ready to open up politically? In this section, some top China scholars, one of China's most well‐known dissidents and a former US spy chief discuss these issues.     

STREET NETWORK STRUCTURE AND CRIME RISK: AN AGENT‐BASED INVESTIGATION OF THE ENCOUNTER AND ENCLOSURE HYPOTHESES

Street networks shape day‐to‐day activities in complex ways, dictating where, when, and in what contexts potential victims, offenders, and crime preventers interact with one another. Identifying generalizable principles of such influence offers considerable utility to theorists, policy makers, and practitioners. Unfortunately, key difficulties associated with the observation of these interactions, and control of the settings within which they take place, limit traditional empirical approaches that aim to uncover mechanisms linking street network structure with crime risk. By drawing on parallel advances in the formal analyses of street networks and the computational modeling of crime events interactions, we present a theoretically informed and empirically validated agent‐based model of residential burglary that permits investigation of the relationship between street network structure and crime commission and prevention through guardianship. Through the use of this model, we explore the validity of competing theoretical accounts of street network permeability and crime risk—the encounter (eyes on the street) and enclosure (defensible space) hypotheses. The results of our analyses provide support for both hypotheses, but in doing so, they reveal that the relationship between street network permeability and crime is likely nonlinear. We discuss the ramifications of these findings for both criminological theory and crime prevention practice.