TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AT PLACES: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF STREET SEGMENTS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE*

Studies of crime at micro places have generally relied on cross‐sectional data and reported the distributions of crime statistics over short periods of time. In this paper we use official crime data to examine the distribution of crime at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14‐year period. We go beyond prior research in two ways. First, we view crime trends at places over a much longer period than other studies that have examined micro places. Second, we use group‐based trajectory analysis to uncover distinctive developmental trends in our data. Our findings support the view that micro places generally have stable concentrations of crime events over time. However, we also find that a relatively small proportion of places belong to groups with steeply rising or declining crime trajectories and that these places are primarily responsible for overall city trends in crime. These findings are particularly important given the more general decline in crime rates observed in Seattle and many other American cities in the 1990s. Our study suggests that the crime drop can be understood not as a general process that occurred across the city landscape but one that was generated in a relatively small group of micro places with strong declining crime trajectories over time.     

THE LAW OF CRIME CONCENTRATION AND THE CRIMINOLOGY OF PLACE*

According to Laub (2004), criminology has a developmental life course with specific turning points that allow for innovations in how we understand and respond to crime. I argue that criminology should take another turn in direction, focusing on microgeographic hot spots. By examining articles published in Criminology, I show that only marginal attention has been paid to this area of study to date—often termed the criminology of place. I illustrate the potential utility of a turning point by examining the law of crime concentration at place, which states that for a defined measure of crime at a specific microgeographic unit, the concentration of crime will fall within a narrow bandwidth of percentages for a defined cumulative proportion of crime. By providing the first cross‐city comparison of crime concentration using a common geographic unit, the same crime type, and examining a general crime measure, I find strong support for a law of crime concentration. I also show that crime concentration stays within a narrow bandwidth across time, despite strong volatility in crime incidents. By drawing from these findings, I identify several key research questions for future study. In conclusion, I argue that a focus on the criminology of place provides significant opportunity for young scholars and has great promise for advancing criminology as a science.     

Social Class and Delinquent Behavior in a National Youth Panel: 1976–1980

This article addresses the question of whether or not a more adequate measure of self-reported delinquency applied to a representative national sample would reveal class differences in r l e l i m that have not been found in earlier self-report studies. The methodological criticisms of earlier self-report measures are reviewed, a new self-report measure is described, annual sex-by-class-specific prevalence and incidence rates based on this measure are presented for a national youth panel for the years 1976 through 1980, and the implications of the class findings are discussed. Class differences in both prevalence and incidence are found for serious offenses. For males, class differences are also found in the incidence of nonserious offenses and global delinquency Class differences are more pervasive and stronger when using an incidence as opposed to a prevalence measure. Criticisms of earlier self report measures appear Justified, calling into Question conclusions about the distribution of delinquency in the adolescent population which are based on prim self-report data.     

The Effect of Police Employment on Crime

The effects of police employment on index violent trim rates and index property crime rates are studied using a maximum likelihood technique to estimate two-wave multivariate panel models. Separate analyses are carried out for a sample of 252 U.S. suburbs and for a sample of 269 U.S. cities for the years 1960 and 1970.     

COLLECTIVE SECURITY AND FATAL FIREARM ACCIDENTS*

This paper offers an explanation for rates of fatal firearm accidents in terms of confidence in collectively provided justice and security. It describes the collective security model and presents an analysis of time-series data from Detroit which supports it: accidental gunshot deaths varied positively with violent crime and civil disturbances and negatively with the allocation of resources to the police. Finally, it discusses some implications for research design and social policy.     

SPECIFIC DETERRENCE IN A SAMPLE OF OFFENDERS CONVICTED OF WHITE COLLAR CRIMES*

It is generally argued that white-collar criminals will be particularly influenced by punishment policies. White-collar crime is seen as a highly rational form of criminality, in which the risks and rewards are carefully evaluated by potential offenders, and white-collar criminals are assumed to have much more to lose through sanctions than more common law violators. In this article we examine the impact of sanctions on the criminal careers of 742 offenders convicted of white-collar crimes in seven US. district courts between fiscal years 1976 and 1978. Utilizing data on court-imposed sanctions originally compiled by Wheeler et al. (1988b), as well as information on subsequent criminal behavior provided by the Identification Bureau of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, we assess the effect of imprisonment upon the oficial criminal records of people convicted of white-collar crimes. Comparing prison and no-prison groups that were matched in terms of factors that led to their receipt of a prison sanction, we find that prison does not have a specific deterrent impact upon the likelihood of rearrest over a 126-month follow-up period.