IMPACT OF A YOUTH SERVICE CENTER

The influences of a Youth Service Center are assessed in two South Philadelphia police districts and two pairs of selected comparison districts, using Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the Youth Center's caseload arrest data. UCR data indicate a slight change in arrest rates within the selected target districts and fluctuating rates within comparison districts. Data for Youth Center Clients show a 26% decrease in arrests during a oneyear period, particularly for white youths. but analysis of other important factors that may have an impact on arrest rates suggests thar it is impossible at this time to demonstrate that the Youth Service Center is significantly decreasing official juvenile delinquency.     

ARREST TRAJECTORIES ACROSS A 17‐YEAR SPAN FOR YOUNG MEN: RELATION TO DUAL TAXONOMIES AND SELF‐REPORTED OFFENSE TRAJECTORIES*

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of different operationalizations of offending behavior on the identified trajectories of offending and to relate findings to hypothesized dual taxonomy models. Prior research with 203 young men from the Oregon Youth Study identified six offender pathways, based on self‐report data (Wiesner and Capaldi, 2003). The current study used official records data (number of arrests) for the same sample. Semiparametric groupbased modeling indicated three distinctive arrest trajectories: high‐level chronics, low‐level chronics, and rare offenders. Both chronic arrest trajectory groups were characterized by relatively equal rates of early onset offenders, which indicates, therefore, some divergence from hypothesized dual taxonomies. Overall, this study demonstrated limited convergence of trajectory findings across official records versus selfreport measures of offending behavior.     

The Effects of Assessment Quality on Revenue Volatility

This paper examines the relationships between assessment quality, property tax revenue volatility, and other revenue volatility using panel data of all 100 counties in North Carolina between 2003 and 2007. Findings suggest that characteristics of the property tax base are the most important predictors of property tax revenue volatility among counties over time. Specifically, increases in assessed value and years in which a mass revaluation occurs are most influential in determining property tax revenue volatility. The second stage of analysis reveals that population, nontax revenue dependence, property tax dependence, and assessment quality have the greatest influences on volatility of other revenues among counties over time. The effect of assessment quality on nonproperty tax revenue volatility is conditional upon a county's property tax dependence.     

Guns vs. Taxes? A Look at How Defense Spending Affects U.S. Federal Tax Policy

Although studies have shown a theoretical and empirical link between defense spending and economic growth and between economic growth and tax policy, the impact of defense spending on federal tax policy remains largely unexplored. This paper proposes a theoretical model and empirical test to explore the direct and indirect effects of defense spending on federal tax policy. The findings suggest that consumption expenditures for national defense directly influence the federal corporate income tax rate. However, the analysis finds no indirect relationship between defense spending and federal tax policy mediated through economic growth.     

Mongrels or thoroughbreds: A cross-national look at social security systems

Abstract. This paper reviews the methodological issues raised by different commentators' attempts to categorise countries' social security systems into 'regime types' or 'models'. It is argued that there are two major problems with these categorisations: (1) the difficulty of finding empirical counterparts to the theoretical concepts used; (2) the complexity of actual social security systems, arising in particular from the diversity of benefits within each system. Despite these problems, we argue that it is possible to maintain a theoretically-informed approach to the comparative analysis of social security, by adopting a more flexible methodology. The approach presented in this paper identifies some of the main principles on which social security systems are based, specifies their empirical counterparts, and allows each national system to be analysed in terms of its particular conjunction or combination of principles.     

Aspirational Legalism and the Role of the Equality and Human Rights Commission in Equality Policy

This paper looks at the role of the EHRC in the wider context of measures to promote equality in the welfare state, and highlights two major problems. First, social policy uses categories which are derived from empirical social analysis and processes of policy design, while anti‐discrimination and equality ‘grounds’ (such as gender and ethnic origin) are drawn from the mutual recognition and political mobilisation of groups. The intersection of these two epistemologies can produce progressive social reforms, but it can also result in sterile political competition between groups. Second, equality law makes rights‐based claims which are deliberately abstracted from the problem of aggregating rights into a manageable set of claims on scarce resources. This may be a strength in pursuing remedies for individual injustice, but it is a weakness in advancing wider ambitions to combat disadvantage affecting large social groups.     

Reforming Credit Reform

The Federal Credit Reform Act (FCRA) improved the treatment of credit in the federal budget, but failed to make the budget cost of credit and noncredit programs fully comparable. Inconsistencies and downwardly biased credit costs arise from the restriction under FCRA that cash flows be discounted at Treasury rates, and from the omission of certain administrative costs. We describe the shortcomings of FCRA and policy distortions that may occur, and propose modifications to the Act that would more closely align budget costs of credit and noncredit programs.