Gallup Polling Accuracy in a Multi-Party Context: An Empirical Study of Twelve Danish Political Parties 1957-80*

This article examines the accuracy of the Gallup poll in a situation involving multiple political parties of different sizes Using data collected by the Danish Gallup Institute 1957–1980. the article demonstrates that polling results, except those of small parties, are well within the sampling error. An explorative analysis of the data, showing that there is a normal distribution of the differences between election results and polling values, provides the possibility of a simple method of interpreting Gallup poll data at a desirable level of confidence.     

Extension of the color suite available for chemical enhancement of fingerprints in blood

The use of ortho- and para-phenylenediamine (OPD & PPD respectively) for the enhancement of fingerprints in blood has been investigated. Optimal pH conditions and H2O2 concentrations have been determined using UV/Vis spectroscopy. Both OPD and PPD are effective and less hazardous alternatives to the presently used 3,3'-diaminobenzidine (DAB) for the development of blood fingerprints, especially on porous surfaces. The orange color of OPD and the purple color of PPD offer alternative colors to the brown color of DAB and the light green color of ABTS for standing out against particular backgrounds. Both OPD and PPD can be used after ninhydrin treatment, but the reverse is not the case.     

The Influence of Future Certainty and Contextual Factors on Delinquent Behavior and School Adjustment Among African American Adolescents

This study examined the ability of future certainty—an individual's perception of future stability, operationalized as the likelihood of certain life outcomes–to explain variance in delinquency and school adjustment, while controlling for economic, neighborhood, and family factors, among a cross-sectional sample of 1422 male and 1562 female African American adolescents drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Three kinds of future certainty were examined: future life certainty (e.g., life expectancy), marriage certainty, and college certainty. In hierarchical multiple regression analyses, future certainty and family functioning were stronger predictors than economic and neighborhood variables: neighborhood disorganization and family socioeconomic status. Future life certainty and expectations of attending college were stronger predictors of delinquency among males than females. Marriage certainty was the weakest predictor of the three certainty variables.     

Predictors of Adolescents’ Disclosure to Parents and Perceived Parental Knowledge: Between- and Within-Person Differences

Adolescents’ willingness to share information with parents is a central process through which parents gain knowledge of their adolescents’ lives. This paper addresses four questions important to understanding adolescents’ decisions to voluntarily disclose areas of parent-adolescent disagreement: What are the contribution of parent-adolescent agreement and adolescents’ non-disclosure of disagreement to adolescents’ perceptions of parental knowledge?; Which adolescents are most likely to disclose to parents in case of disagreement?; Under what conditions are adolescents more or less likely to disclose disagreement?; and What type of non-disclosure will different adolescents use and under what conditions? Self-report data from 120 adolescents (M age=15.8) revealed that failure to disclose disagreement, but not overall agreement, predicted perceived parental knowledge. Adolescents from authoritative homes and those less involved in disapproved leisure were more likely to disclose disagreement and less likely to lie. Within-person differences in disclosure were predicted by the presence of explicit rules and adolescents’ beliefs about required obedience.Dr. Darling is a developmental psychologist whose research focuses on social relationships during adolescence, with a special interest in contextual variation in developmental processes. Correspondence should be addressed to Dr. Darling atDr. Cumsille is a developmental methodologist whose research focuses on adolescent well-being.Dr. Caldwell's research focuses on the experience of adolescent leisure, with a particular interest in adolescent boredom and well-being.Dr. Dowdy is a developmental psychologist specializing in adolescent social relations.     

Considering Knowledge Uptake within a Cycle of Transforming Data,Information, and Knowledge

Knowledge uptake, having decision makers assimilate the ideas of experts, is recognized as an important stimulus to bringing about policy change. This is particularly true in the realm of environmental policymaking, which is characterized by knowledge intensity, complexity, and multifaceted concerns. Using examples from an innovative watershed management organization, this article presents a heuristic for understanding how knowledge uptake occurs within a cycle of organizational reasoning. This cycle is driven by activities that transform data, information, and knowledge and that link specialists with decision makers. The heuristic can be used as a diagnostic tool to identify breaks in the transformation process that impede mandate fulfillment and impair capacity building. Lack of appreciation of the dynamic relationship between data, information and knowledge leads to mistimed and ineffective policy interventions that do not result in the hoped for progress in science intended to underpin policy advances.     

Empirical analysis of the STR profiles resulting from conceptual mixtures

Samples containing DNA from two or more individuals can be difficult to interpret. Even ascertaining the number of contributors can be challenging and associated uncertainties can have dramatic effects on the interpretation of testing results. Using an FBI genotypes dataset, containing complete genotype information from the 13 Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) loci for 959 individuals, all possible mixtures of three individuals were exhaustively and empirically computed. Allele sharing between pairs of individuals in the original dataset, a randomized dataset and datasets of generated cousins and siblings was evaluated as were the number of loci that were necessary to reliably deduce the number of contributors present in simulated mixtures of four or less contributors. The relatively small number of alleles detectable at most CODIS loci and the fact that some alleles are likely to be shared between individuals within a population can make the maximum number of different alleles observed at any tested loci an unreliable indicator of the maximum number of contributors to a mixed DNA sample. This analysis does not use other data available from the electropherograms (such as peak height or peak area) to estimate the number of contributors to each mixture. As a result, the study represents a worst case analysis of mixture characterization. Within this dataset, approximately 3% of three-person mixtures would be mischaracterized as two-person mixtures and more than 70% of four-person mixtures would be mischaracterized as two- or three-person mixtures using only the maximum number of alleles observed at any tested locus.     

Reducing violence in serious juvenile offenders using intensive treatment

This study reports on the reduction in violent offending in a population of serious and violent juvenile offenders following an intensive institutional treatment program. The treatment group (N=101) is compared to a similar group that was assessed but not treated (N=147). All youth were sent to the program from a juvenile corrections institution where they had received the customary rehabilitation services. The results show a significant reduction in the prevalence of recidivism in the treated group after controlling for time at risk in the community and other covariates. The effects of non-random group assignment were reduced by including a propensity score analysis procedure in the outcome analysis. Untreated comparison youth appeared to be about twice as likely to commit violent offenses as were treated youth (44% vs. 23%). Similarly, treated youth had significantly lower hazard ratios for recidivism in the in the community than the comparison youth, even after accounting for the effects of non-random group assignment.