Exit,voice and loyalty: Analytic and empirical developments

Abstract. This paper seeks to reconstruct and revitalize the famous Hirschman framework by providing a comprehensive review of the current use of 'exit, voice and loyalty'. We begin by critically examining Hirchman's original account, and then look at the way his argument has been extended in different fields both conceptually and empirically. We suggest that while advances have been made, the results so far are somewhat disappointing given the perceptiveness of the original insight. We believe this is because his apparently simple schema is more complex than it first appears, and different aspects of exit, of voice, and of empirical foundations of loyalty need to be analytically distinguished in order to produce testable empirical hypotheses about their relationships.     

Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

瑞应寺 三百年东藏圣地

藏传佛教文化以其令人炫目的历史穿透力,赋予阜新这块土地独具魅力的民族宗教风情,数百年来滋养着这里纯朴而热情的人们,也深深吸引着世界各地无数信众、游客虔诚与向往的脚步。     

猪肺炎霉形体p52基因重组腺病毒的构建及其免疫特性

为构建携带猪肺炎霉形体(Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae,Mhp)p52基因的重组腺病毒,从Mhp J株扩增p52基因,克隆到穿梭载体pShuttle-CMV中,经Pine Ⅰ线性化后,电转化入BJ5183菌内,与其含有的骨架载体pAdEasy-1同源重组,再与脂质体混合转染AD-293细胞,包装成完整的腺病毒,经RT-PCR、间接免疫荧光鉴定后扩增,收集病毒液,免疫BALB/c小鼠,并分析了体液免疫、黏膜免疫和细胞免疫效果.结果表明,重组质粒pShuttle-CMV-P52插入片段为1 202 bp;同源重组成功;重组腺病毒可以正确表达目的蛋白,效价达1×106TCID50/mL.重组病毒经肌肉注射和滴鼻均可诱导小鼠产生血清和肺匀浆液特异性IgG、SIgA,但不能诱导特异的淋巴细胞增殖.证实,成功构建了表达p52基因的重组腺病毒,该病毒可诱发小鼠产生特异的体液免疫和黏膜免疫,但不产生细胞免疫应答.     

重组鸡痘病毒rFPV-VP3-F的遗传稳定性及在鸡体内的表达

为了评价重组禽痘病毒rFPV-VP3-F的遗传稳定性,将rFPV-VP3-F在鸡胚成纤维细胞(CEF)连续培养20代.对第5、10、15和20代病毒的F基因进行扩增及序列分析,未发现F基因发生氨基酸改变;通过间接免疫荧光方法检测各个代次rFPV-VP3-F中F基因特异表达的情况;将rFPV-VP3-F和禽痘病毒FPV017分别接种于35日龄商品鸡,在免疫后第7、14、21、28、35 d采集各组血清,检测中和抗体效价.结果显示,F基因在重组禽痘病毒中可以稳定遗传,可在CEF中表达相应蛋白,可刺激鸡产生相应的抗体.     

国有企业社会责任实现路径探析

国有企业社会责任与一般企业社会责任有着根本区别,是目前推进我国企业社会责任的关键问题。国有企业由于其本身＂公益性＂与＂营利性＂并存的性质,决定了其社会责任的内涵具有特殊性。应该通过产权制度明晰化、社会责任内涵法制化、评价体系科学化、监督主体独立化和多元化等多种渠道来确保国有企业社会责任的有效实现。     

Impact of the US Credit Crunch and Housing Market Crisis on China

Similarities between the US, the UK and the Chinese housing markets, including the movements of interest rates and house prices, and the exposure of some Chinese banks to the US mortgage securitization market, have triggered concern about whether China could experience a US-style credit and housing market crisis. Significant differences between China and Western economies make that unlikely in the near future. China's booming house market has been supported by fast economic growth, rapid urbanization and high domestic savings. Chinese banks have also been less exposed to mortgage defaults than their Western counterparts. However, the relative underdevelopment of the financial system—credit monitoring and asset securitization—may expose China to domestic mortgage lending-related crises.     

Sex,gender, and promotion in executive office: Cabinet careers in the world of Westminster

This article provides the first analysis of gendered promotion issues for cabinet ministers using most-similar systems design for three “Westminster-style” governments: Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Using individual-level data and controlling for biographical, institutional, and country effects we find, in common with earlier literature, that women are more likely to be given less prestigious cabinet posts and be assigned to “feminine” portfolio. Using both sequence and event history analysis, we see the careers of men and women starkly diverge. We find that women are less likely to be promoted than men but find no relationship between prestigious portfolio and promotion. However, feminine portfolio assignments decrease the promotion prospects for women yet increase them for men.     

放线杆菌外膜蛋白酵母双杂交诱饵质粒的构建及自激活与毒性检测

为了筛选胸膜肺炎放线杆菌外膜蛋白在肺泡上皮细胞上的作用受体,应用酵母双杂交技术构建诱饵质粒载体pGBKT7-omp(胸膜肺炎放线杆菌外膜蛋白),从胸膜肺炎放线杆菌提取基因组DNA,用PCR方法获得omp,克隆于pGBKT7载体上,进行酶切鉴定及序列分析,并检测pGBKT7-omp在酵母双杂交系统中的自激活和毒性作用。结果表明,成功构建了诱饵质粒载体pGBKT7-omp,并证明其在酵母双杂交系统中无自激活及毒性作用。表明pGBKT7-omp可应用在酵母双杂交系统中,用于寻找猪肺泡上皮细胞cDNA文库中与omp相互作用的蛋白质。