Spectral analysis of reported crime data

This paper applies spectral analysis to data on reported crimes for a medium-sized city. The objective is to examine certain aspects of the statistical properties of crime data, as well as to illustrate the utility of the spectral-analytic method for criminal justice research. A discussion of the theoretical underpinnings of the spectral analysis technique is provided through analogy with familiar least squares regression methods. Both spectral and cross-spectral analysis are then employed to test selected hypotheses concerning the data.     

An application of the multicandidate calculus of voting to the 1972 and 1976 German federal elections

Two important assumptions underlying the Riker-McKelvey-Ordeshook, expected-utility-based, multicandidate calculus of voting are that citizens decide whether or not and for whom to vote in a single-member district (SMD), plurality-winner electoral system and that they ignore aggregate outcomes, that is, how citizens in other districts may vote. Aranson modifies this calculus by investigating citizens' decisions in proportional-representation (PR) systems and/or situations in which aggregate outcomes require parties to form parliamentary coalitions to govern. This study operationalizes and applies the probability and utility components of this modified calculus to data on the 1972 and 1976 West German federal elections, which combine features of SMD and PR systems and of which coalition politics is an integral part. Expected-utility calculations used to predict reported voting decisions achieve reasonably good levels of aggregate accuracy. Further analysis reveals that gradations in respondents' expected utilities, as well as in their utilities and surrogate measures of the subjective probabilities of electoral outcomes, relate significantly to reported voting decisions. Also, variables that model coalition considerations are commonly the most significant.     

Frontiers of imagination: Feminist worlds

New Feminist scholarship in diverse disciplines, including the social sciences, suggests a distinctive female reality which finds itsbesr literary expression in contemporary speculative fiction by women. Feminist utopias, in particular, delineate alternative societies in which ‘female’ values predominate. In novels by Marge Piercy, Doris Lessing, Ursula Le Guin and many other women, readers may discover holistic and dynamic worlds different from both our current reality and the patriarchal tradition of utopian speculation. When women imagine the ‘good society’, dualistic divisions, often ranked hierarchically in current power structures, tend to disappear, Feminist speculative fiction heals such schisms as those between male and female, matter and spirit, public and private rights, ends and means, even technology and ecology. Although these ‘utopias’ are not perfect, nor intended to be, their depiction of more balanced and integrated societies affords a fresh perspective on traditional political and cultural problems. Ultimately, then, the newly released female imagination may provide us not only a fascinating literature but substantive directions for actual change.     

STR data for the AmpFlSTR Profiler loci from the three main ethnic population groups (Malay, Chinese and Indian) in Malaysia

Allele frequencies for the nine STRs genetic loci included in the AmpFlSTR Profiler kit were obtained from samples of unrelated individuals comprising 139-156 Malays, 149-153 Chinese and 132-135 Indians, residing in Malaysia.     

Economic Growth and Income Inequality: the modern Taiwan experience

This paper investigates the dispersion of household income in the course of economic development in Taiwan. Statistics show that inequality of income has increased since the early 1980s as the rate of economic growth has declined from 11.6% in 1986 to 4.1% in 2005. The empirical result on the relationship between economic growth and income distribution also fails to support the conventional inverted-U Kuznets curve. Factors leading to change in income disparity may be attributed to variations in family formation, economic structures, and the recent change in political leadership and institutional policy. Among them, increased single-parent families deteriorate overall income share, although growth in the service sector helps to alleviate inequity. The new political governance and policy reform since 2000 are detected to aggravate income inequality.     

Crisis and contract breach: The domestic and international determinants of expropriation

The Review of International Organizations - In this paper we address how external factors shape government decisions to break or uphold contracts, specifically focusing on how economic shocks and...     

Mass media attention to welfare state reforms: evidence from Britain, 1996–2014

One of the core questions facing political scientists is how politicians are able to implement cutbacks without suffering electoral backlash. A possible explanation might be that the mass media refrain from reporting on welfare state reforms in a consistent way. In order to explore this, two unique datasets have been collected: one contains information on all policy reforms of British old age pensions and unemployment protection from 1996 to 2014, and the other contains hand-coded media articles that allow the tracking on a monthly basis of what reforms are picked up. It is found that the mass media report on cutbacks, but not on expansions, and that they prioritise easy-to-understand cutbacks over cutbacks that are more technical in nature.