Predicting the institutional effects of term limits

In this paper we develop a model to predict the seniority turnover, and transition consequences of term limit reforms for any institution with a regularized procedure for rotating membership. With this model we can predict the number of members who will be serving in their last term at any given time once an institution reaches a stable state under term limit reforms. For example, our results show that for the U.S. Senate current term limit proposals will result in a substantial increase in the number of “lame duck” members and a significant reduction in average seniority. We make no claims as to the public policy effects of term limit proposals. However, our model can be used to design a proposal that will maximize any benefits or minimize any public policy effects found to be associated with term limit reforms.     

John Rawls and Policy Formation

Liberalism has bay far been the most appealing ideology in modern political thought, and considered by many as one of human kind's greatest inventions, product of our development as a race. However, new theories have threatened the philosophical foundations upon which liberalism itself stands. One of the most strongly criticized theories is that of the Original Position, developed by the political philosopher John Rawls, and which is itself a fundamental cornerstone in Rawls's Theory of Justice. In this article, I will focus on discussing the problems and questions that arise for policy formation when analyzing the Orginal Position.     

Pre-electoral coalitions in comparative perspective: A test of existing hypotheses

Despite the vast coalition literature, pre-electoral coalitions have never been at the center of any systematic, cross-national research. Given their prevalence and potential impact on government composition and policies, this represents a serious omission in our knowledge of coalitions. I begin to remedy this situation by testing two hypotheses found in the literature on party coalitions. The first is that pre-electoral coalitions are more likely to form in disproportional systems if there are a sufficiently large number of parties. The second is that pre-electoral coalitions are more likely to form if voters face high uncertainty about the identity of future governments. These hypotheses are tested using a new dataset comprising legislative elections in 22 advanced industrialized countries between 1946 and 1998. The results of the statistical analysis support the first hypothesis, but not the second.     

Research on immigrant earnings

As the first in a trio of pieces devoted to incorporating immigration into policy models, this review of research on immigrant earnings trajectories brings to light several findings. Controlling for demographic and human capital characteristics, immigrants often start their U.S. lives at substantially lower earnings, but experience faster earnings growth than natives with comparable years of education and experience. The extent to which the earnings trajectories of immigrants and natives differ varies by country of origin, with the source-country's level of economic development being a key determinant of the size of the U.S.-born/ foreign-born difference. The earnings profiles of immigrants from economically developed countries such as Japan, Canada, or Western Europe resemble those of U.S. natives who are of the same age and education level. In contrast, the earnings of immigrants from developing nations tend to start well below those of U.S. natives with comparable education levels and experience, but rise more rapidly than their U.S. counterparts. Comparing the earnings profiles of immigrants of similar age, sex, and years of schooling, over time and across groups, a strong inverse relationship emerges between their initial earnings and their subsequent U.S. earnings growth. In other words, the lower (higher) the initial earnings are, the higher (lower) the earnings growth. These and other research results have important implications for the projection of immigrant earnings and emigration in microsimulation models, as discussed in the two articles following this one: (1) "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models" and (2) "Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models".     

That Enlightenment Question Again

Sandall’s complaint that the Enlightenment is in danger is not new as it repeats a long standing complaint about “the betrayal of the intellectuals”. But the danger today is not from either the Muslim world or from the marginalized academics who pursue an anti-liberal multicultural agenda that belittles the Western liberal tradition. In the United States the menace comes from the much more powerful far right that has abandoned America’s Enlightenment tradition. It is time for academics to start teaching students what that tradition is all about, and why it needs to be defended, but spreading fear about weak and divided Muslim societies is not the way.

Comparing Putin’s and Brezhnev’s Policies toward the Middle East

This article compares Moscow’s and Washington’s foreign policies toward the Middle East in 1982 and 2008. In 1982, Moscow and Washington each had a distinct set of friends and foes. In 2008, Washington still has a distinct set of friends and foes, but Moscow has relatively good relations with all governments and most major opposition movements in the region—the only exceptions being Al Qaeda and its affiliates. It is argued that Putin’s policy toward the Middle East is not really aimed at displacing the U.S. in the region, but protecting Russia and Russian interests from Al Qaeda and its allies. Indeed, a continued American presence in the region serves to protect Russian interests in the region.

Dermestes maculatus (Coleoptera: Dermestidae) development under fluoxetine effect using two drug administration models

Fluoxetine is a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, commonly used for the treatment of a variety of psychopathological conditions. As such, fluoxetine may be expected to appear in clinical and forensic cases. Dermestes maculatus De Geer (Coleoptera: Dermestidae) has been recognized as a relevant component of the insect fauna associated with decomposing human and animal remains. Experiments were conducted to study the effect of fluoxetine on developing D. maculatus using two‐drug administration models: a non‐living animal model (pork muscle) and a living one (Sus scrofa L. pigs). We assessed the duration of immature stages and total life cycle, as well as morphological parameters (body length, cephalic width, and weight). The effect of fluoxetine was studied at an overdose concentration: In the non‐living animal model the drug was mixed with macerated pork muscle (2000 mg/kg) and in the living animal model, pigs were given the drug orally (833 mg/kg). A control was used for each model. Daily observations were performed from the beginning to the end of the experiments. GC‐MS was used for drug detection and quantification. There were no statistically significant differences in the duration of immature stages, life cycle, larval mortality, morphological parameters, or sex ratio, between treatment and control, regardless of the drug administration model. Given that fluoxetine had no detectable effect on the development of D. maculatus, detection of this drug in forensic situations would not compromise the accuracy of PMI estimations.