Subjective Invulnerability,Optimism Bias and Adjustment in Emerging Adulthood

The relationship between subjective invulnerability and optimism bias in risk appraisal, and their comparative association with indices of risk activity, substance use and college adjustment problems was assessed in a sample of 350 (M _age = 20.17; 73% female; 93% White/European American) emerging adults. Subjective invulnerability was measured with the newly devised adolescent invulnerability scale (AIS). Optimism bias in decision-making was assessed with a standard comparative-conditional risk appraisal task. Results showed that the danger- and psychological invulnerability subscales of the AIS demonstrated strong internal consistency and evidence of predictive validity. Subjective invulnerability and optimism bias were also shown to be empirically distinct constructs with differential ability to predict risk and adjustment. Danger invulnerability and psychological invulnerability were more pervasively associated with risk behavior than was optimism bias; and psychological invulnerability counter-indicated depression, self-esteem and interpersonal problems. Results support recent claims regarding the “two faces” of adolescent invulnerability. Implications for future research are drawn.     

The New Europe: a Federal State or a Confederation of States?

In its search for new forms of federal arrangements appropriate to its contemporary situation, Europe is again at the cutting edge in developing new political arrangements for the postmodern epoch. With the collapse of Westphalian statism, those new arrangements are perforce federal, but not in the manner of modern federations. Instead they are postmodern confederations and various kinds of confederal arrangements. The European Union is rapidly becoming the model post-modern confederation, while other arrangements linking the states of contemporary Europe represent other forms of confederal arrangements. All fit into the spirit and form of globalization and are helping to provide economic globalization with a political and constitutional anchor. Several questions remain, however. How can the European Union become or remain federal rather than hierarchical in orientation, given the pulls of traditional European statism? How will the new confederalism accommodate the various arenas in existing European national state federations?