How electoral systems affect MPs’ positions

The question how different electoral systems affect the representation of voters in parliaments has been a thorny issue for a considerable time. While some research suggests that first-past-the-posts systems should lead to a closer correspondence between the preferences of the electoral district’s median voter and of its representative, other work concludes that in proportional representation (PR) systems, especially with open lists, candidates have an incentive to cultivate a strong personal vote.     

Can child care assistance in welfare and employment programs support the employment of low‐income families?

Policymakers have long recognized child care as a key ingredient in low‐income parents' employability. We examine the effects of expansions in child care policies that were bundled with a mix of employment‐related policies and implemented as part of several random assignment studies on families' child care access and cost. Almost all of these welfare and employment programs increased employment and led to concomitant increases in the use of child care, especially paid child care. Only the programs that also expanded access or affordability of child care consistently increased the use of child care subsidies and reduced out‐of‐pocket costs to parents, allowing parents to purchase center‐based care. With one exception, such programs had small effects on employment‐related child care problems, suggesting that broader and more generous targeting of child care assistance may be important for achieving the goal of enhancing the stability of employment among low‐income families. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

A Holistic Theoretical Model for Examining Welfare Reform: Quality of Life

Policy makers, public administrators, the media, and others are celebrating the "success" of the latest version of welfare reform, codified into law by the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. Most often, success is defined in terms of declining case loads or some other economic measure—a practice that does not provide a true sense of the impact of policy changes such as welfare reform. Assessing the human impact of policy change requires more than evaluating economic outcomes; it requires knowing the resources of beneficiaries of social services and their conditions of life from various perspectives. Thus, we must strive for greater understanding about the sociocultural aspects of people's lives that create the whole person—aspects such as health, family and friendship networks, housing situations, public and private support service and program use, conditions of work, and so forth. This is how we come to understand one's quality of life. The present research creates a conceptual model of quality of life and illustrates the model using data from a follow–up study of former welfare recipients in a county in northern Virginia. Evaluation activities that are premised on a quality–of–life model will help policy actors understand the impact of policies and how public institutions can be managed strategically within their very complex contexts, especially in an era of welfare reform.     

Delinquent histories of adolescents adjudicated for criminal sexual conduct

A content analysis of closed case records from family court examined personal and family history variables for adolescents with sexually abusive behaviors who had been adjudicated for criminal sexual conduct and compared subgroups of adolescents with ( n = 72) and without (n = 80) prior other delinquent behavior. The study's findings indicate that adolescents with and without prior delinquent behaviors differed on a majority of the variables measured in this study. Adolescents with sexual offending behaviors who also had prior delinquent behaviors were older and had higher rates of documented childhood maltreatment, and drug and alcohol use. These adolescents had caregivers with more substance use and abuse problems and more extensive criminal histories. These findings have a number of practice implications when working with adolescents with sexually abusive behaviors. The findings also suggest that comparisons between adolescents with sexually abusive behaviors and other delinquents may be misleading if these subgroups of adolescents with sexually abusive behaviors are not distinguished.     

Does Racial Balance in Workforce Representation Yield Equal Justice? Race Relations of Sentencing in Federal Court Organizations*

Increasing racial and ethnic group representation in justice‐related occupations is considered a potential remedy to racial inequality in justice administration, including sentencing disparity. Studies to date yield little evidence of such an effect; however, research limitations may account for the mixed and limited evidence of the significance of justice workforce racial diversity. Specifically, few studies consider group‐level dynamics of race and representation, thus failing to contextualize racial group power relations in justice administration. To consider these contextual dynamics we combine court organizational and case‐level data from 89 federal districts and use hierarchical models to assess whether variably “representative” work groups relate to district‐level differences in sentencing. Using district‐specific indexes of population and work group dissimilarity to define representation, we find no relationships between black judge representation and sentencing in general across districts, but that districts with more black representation among prosecutors are significantly less likely to sentence defendants to terms of imprisonment. We also find in districts with increased black representation among prosecutors, and to a lesser degree among judges, that black defendants are less likely to be imprisoned and white defendants are more likely to be imprisoned, with the effect of narrowing black‐white disparities in sentencing. Consistent with the “power‐threat” perspective, and perhaps “implicit racial bias” research, findings encourage modeling diversity to account for relative racial group power in processes of social control and suggest that racial justice may be moderately advanced by equal representation among authorities.     

Demography and discourse in transition:: Quebec Fertility at the Turn of the Twentieth Century

This article is part of a broader research project which seeks to shed new light on Quebec's fertility decline between the 1850s and the 1950s, notably by breaking down barriers between cultural and economic explanations and between quantitative and qualitative analysis. It explores relationships between demographic trends and the public discourse around reproduction in the province at the turn of the twentieth century. Using a collection of articles selected from French-language periodicals published between 1870 and 1920, the article analyzes the reactions of certain public commentators to the prospect of fertility decline in this traditionally prolific province. They identify a shift in the public discussion of fertility in Quebec during World War I. Pride in and celebration of Quebec's large families was superseded in the dominant nationalist discourse by anxiety about diminished rates of reproduction and natalist exhortations to women who might be tempted to restrict their fertility. After documenting and identifying the reasons for this shift, the article discusses a current of opposition which appeared, if only briefly, in the pages of the controversial liberal weekly, Le Pays.     

Do Moderate Voters Weigh Candidates’ Ideologies? Voters’ Decision Rules in the 2010 Congressional Elections

Models of voting behavior typically specify that all voters employ identical criteria to evaluate candidates. We argue that moderate voters weigh candidates’ policy/ideological positions far less than non-moderate voters, and we report analyses of survey data from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study that substantiate these arguments. Across a wide range of models and measurement strategies, we find consistent evidence that liberal and conservative voters are substantially more responsive to candidate ideology than more centrist voters. Simply put, moderate voters appear qualitatively different from liberals and conservatives, a finding that has important implications for candidate strategies and for political representation.     

Parental Incarceration and Multiple Risk Experiences: Effects on Family Dynamics and Children’s Delinquency

Children of incarcerated parents are exposed to factors that place them at risk for delinquency. Few studies have examined the effects of having an incarcerated parent after controlling for other experiences such as contextual risk factors and family processes. Past studies have also not examined effects of recent, but not current, parental incarceration on children. The present study examines an archival dataset, in which children aged 10–14 years and their parents/guardians reported children’s risk experiences (e.g., exposure to poverty, parental substance use), family processes (e.g., level of family victimization, family conflict), and children’s delinquent behaviors at two time points. Parents also reported their recent and past incarceration history. Hierarchical linear regression analyses show that a history of parental incarceration predicted family victimization, delinquent behaviors of children’s older siblings, and delinquent behaviors of the child participants, over and above children’s demographic characteristics and other risk experiences. Recent parental incarceration predicted family conflict, family victimization, and parent-reports of children’s delinquency after also controlling for previous parental incarceration. The role of family processes in research and intervention directions involving children of incarcerated parents is discussed.     

Academic Success Across the Transition from Primary to Secondary Schooling Among Lower-Income Adolescents: Understanding the Effects of Family Resources and Gender

Successful academic performance during adolescence is a key predictor of lifetime achievement, including occupational and social success. The present study investigated the important transition from primary to secondary schooling during early adolescence, when academic performance among youth often declines. The goal of the study was to understand how risk factors, specifically lower family resources and male gender, threaten academic success following this “critical transition” in schooling. The study involved a longitudinal examination of the predictors of academic performance in grades 7–8 among 127 (56 % girls) French-speaking Quebec (Canada) adolescents from lower-income backgrounds. As hypothesized based on transition theory, hierarchical regression analyses showed that supportive parenting and specific academic, social and behavioral competencies (including spelling ability, social skills, and lower levels of attention problems) predicted success across this transition among at-risk youth. Multiple-mediation procedures demonstrated that the set of compensatory factors fully mediated the negative impact of lower family resources on academic success in grades 7–8. Unique mediators (social skills, spelling ability, supportive parenting) also were identified. In addition, the “gender gap” in performance across the transition could be attributed statistically to differences between boys and girls in specific competencies observed prior to the transition, as well as differential parenting (i.e., support from mother) towards girls and boys. The present results contribute to our understanding of the processes by which established risk factors, such as low family income and gender impact development and academic performance during early adolescence. These “transitional” processes and subsequent academic performance may have consequences across adolescence and beyond, with an impact on lifetime patterns of achievement and occupational success.