中国、美国与正在演变中的亚洲秩序

中国崛起是一个复合概念,既包括经济、军事等硬实力方面,也包括国际规范、高等教育等软实力方面。这对亚洲地区的国际秩序来说无疑是一个新的变量,但不能就此认为亚洲地区已形成了中国主导的国际秩序。实际上,正在演变中的亚洲秩序是一个包含有轮毂模式、有限共治模式、规范共同体模式和复合相互依赖模式四种秩序特征的复合体。同时,中国崛起对中美关系来说无疑也注入了新的元素,但并非就如现实主义者所预测的那么悲观,中美之间的合作远大于分歧,我们尤其应该注意在中美之间还存在许多不确定因素。     

Acts of Faith: Churches and Political Engagement

Many observers suggest that white evangelical Protestant churches serve to mobilize their members into politics, while others argue that they encourage withdrawal from political life. This paper reconciles these two claims. I hypothesize that the time members of evangelical Protestant denominations spend in service to their church comes at the expense of participation in the wider community, contrary to the way mainline Protestant and Catholic churches foster civic activity among their members. However, I further hypothesize that the tight social networks formed through this intensive church activity can at times facilitate rapid and intense political mobilization. Data from the Citizen Participation Study supports the first hypothesis, while applying King's method of ecological inference to two elections in Alabama supports the second.     

Democracy and the Violation of Human Rights: A Statistical Analysis from 1976 to 1996

Most studies posit and identify a linear and negative relationship between democracy and the violation of human rights. Some research challenges this finding, however, suggesting that nonlinear influences exist. Within this article, we examine the structure of the relationship between democracy and repression during the time period from 1976 to 1996. To conduct our analysis, we utilize diverse statistical approaches which are particularly flexible in identifying influences that take a variety of functional forms (specifically LOESS and binary decomposition). Across measures and methodological techniques, we found that below a certain level, democracy has no impact on human rights violations, but above this level democracy influences repression in a negative and roughly linear manner. The implications of this research are discussed within the conclusion .     

Do school accountability systems make it more difficult for low‐performing schools to attract and retain high‐quality teachers?

Administrative data from North Carolina are used to explore the extent to which that state's relatively sophisticated school‐based accountability system has exacerbated the challenges that schools serving low‐performing students face in retaining and attracting high‐quality teachers. Most clear are the adverse effects on retention rates, and hence on teacher turnover, in such schools. Less clear is the extent to which that higher turnover has translated into a decline in the average qualifications of the teachers in the low‐performing schools. Other states with more primitive accountability systems can expect even greater adverse effects on teacher turnover in low‐performing schools. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

A Longitudinal Study of Self-Awareness and Depressed Mood in Adolescence

The relationship between longitudinal variations of self-awareness and depressed mood in 479 adolescents was examined across four waves of data collection over a seven-year period. Self-awareness was significantly associated with depressed mood, and this association was strongest during midadoles-cence. Regression analyses of changes of depressed mood over time suggest mutual influence between self-awareness and depressed mood. Stressful life events, such as pubescent changes and the relationship with significant others, explained variations in self-awareness. Different influences of these life events were important at varying stages of adolescence.     

Voter turnout at the British General Election of 1992: Rational choice,social standing or political efficacy?

Abstract. Analyses of turnout in British general elections fall broadly into two camps: those based on constituency–level data, and those based on survey data. The former stress the importance of local context, while the latter stress personal characteristics and viewpoints. Underlying both are a range of theories purporting to explain turnout. However, to date, there has been little systematic attempt to analyse turnout in the round. In this paper, we combine survey and constituency data to study the individual and contextual correlates of turnout at the British general election and 1992. Constituency level analyses seem to confirm the importance of local context, though it declined during the 1980s. However, and contrary to analyses which employ constituency data only, while individual electors' decisions on whether or not to turn out are influenced by their personal circumstances, they are not influenced by local context.