Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

Rib fractures in infants due to cardiopulmonary resuscitation efforts

Although it is widely known that adults may sustain fractures of the anterior and/or lateral aspects of the ribs due to cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) efforts, relatively little is written about the generation of CPR-related rib fractures in the infant age range. In a series of 70 consecutive autopsies in infants ranging in age from 2 weeks to 8 months, with no history or indications of injury, the parietal pleura of the thoracic cage was stripped and the ribs carefully examined for fracture. Subtle fractures of the anterolateral aspects of the ribs were discovered in 8 (11%) of the 70 cases. In 7 of the 8 cases, multiple ribs were fractured (ranging up to 10 rib fractures), and in 5 of these cases, the rib fractures were bilateral. All of the rib fractures were subtle, had little if any associated blood extravasation, and would have been easily missed had the parietal pleura not been stripped. These anterolateral rib fractures in infants are the likely correlate of anterolateral rib fractures that are not uncommonly seen in the adult population, resulting from resuscitation efforts. The rib fractures are subtle and may not be identified unless the parietal pleura is stripped.     

Regulating Supply Chains to Improve Health and Safety

The fragmentation of previously integrated systems of productionand service delivery has been an important feature of organisationalrestructuring over the last three decades. This article highlightsthe adverse implications of this development for the healthand safety of workers, examines the extent to which currentBritish health and safety law provides an adequate frameworkfor addressing these outcomes and explores whether its capacityto do so could be enhanced through the introduction of new statutoryprovisions on the regulation of supply chains. It concludesthat, in terms of both structure and operation, the presentframework of law is problematic. It further argues that recentinternational initiatives show that it is feasible to developsuch statutory provisions and that existing evidence suggeststhat provisions of this type could usefully be introduced inrespect of a number of areas of activity where the implicationsof the externalisation of production and service delivery seemparticularly problematic.     

Exclusion from patentability of diagnostic methods practised on the human body:Article 52(4) EPC

The exclusion of diagnostic methods practised on the human bodyfrom patentability was subject to clarification from the EnlargedBoard of Appeal in case G 1/04 of 16 December 2005. This casegives a practical example of the application of the EnlargedBoard's decision.     

Legal medicine and the medical establishment

Formal medical discipline-based regulation and professional support for legal medicine practitioners have been a long time coming. While informal associations and societies of like-minded doctors and dentists have existed for some time, they have not had the sort of "establishment credibility" that is required to influence policy-makers and drive formal processes for professional training and regulation in this area. The recent creation of formal medical College status for medico-legal specialists within the medical establishment is described and the advantages discussed. The creation of formal career pathways, organised training structures and policy advisory systems in legal medicine for government has the potential to support recruitment to this difficult and challenging area of medical practice. This can only be of benefit to the legal profession who rely on these medical practitioners in so many areas. The standards setting, recertification, revalidation and accreditation activities of a formal Royal Medical College are likely to have significant influence on the work of health and legal policy regulators at a time of considerable change.     

A Bayesian Multilevel Modeling Approach to Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data

Joseph Bafumi Department of Government, Dartmouth College,6108 Silsby HallHanover, NH 03755 e-mail: joseph.bafumi{at}dartmouth.edu Luke Keele Department of Political Science, Ohio State University,2137 Derby Hall, 154 N Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210 e-mail: keele.4{at}polisci.osu.edu David Park Department of Political Science, George Washington University,1922 F Street, N.W. 414C, Washington, DC 20052 e-mail: dkp{at}gwu.edu e-mail: bshor{at}uchicago.edu (corresponding author) The analysis of time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data hasbecome increasingly popular in political science. Meanwhile,political scientists are also becoming more interested in theuse of multilevel models (MLM). However, little work existsto understand the benefits of multilevel modeling when appliedto TSCS data. We employ Monte Carlo simulations to benchmarkthe performance of a Bayesian multilevel model for TSCS data.We find that the MLM performs as well or better than other commonestimators for such data. Most importantly, the MLM is moregeneral and offers researchers additional advantages. Authors' note: A previous version of this article was presentedat the 2005 Midwest Political Science Meeting. We would liketo thank the following for comments and advice in writing thispaper: Andrew Gelman, Nathaniel Beck, Greg Wawro, Sam Cooke,John Londregan, David Brandt. Any errors are our own.     

Psychopathy and Violent Crime: A Prospective Study of the Influence of Socioeconomic Status and Ethnicity

The relationship between psychopathy and violence is well-established. However, few studies have examined the extent to which this relationship is influenced by sociodemographic predictors of violent criminality. In this prospective study we examine the power of psychopathy to predict criminal violence across ethnicity and levels of socioeconomic status in 199 European American and African American U.S. county jail inmates. A Psychopathy x SES x Ethnicity interaction was identified such that among European Americans psychopathy predicted recidivism at lower levels of SES but was unrelated to recidivism at higher levels of SES. The predictive power of psychopathy was relatively stable across SES among African Americans. The implications of our results for psychopathy and violence prediction are discussed.     

Knocking at the wrong door: insured workers' inadequate psychiatric care and workers' compensation claims

ObjectiveTo describe the prevalence of inadequately evaluated and treated psychopathology among insured workers making workers' compensation claims for psychiatric disability whose cases were reviewed by one forensic psychiatrist. To assess the relationship of inadequate evaluation and treatment to the outcomes of these workers' compensation claims.MethodsRecords of a series of 185 workers' compensation cases reviewed in 1998 and 1999 by a California forensic psychiatrist were abstracted. Patient factors (gender, Axis II pathology, psychosocial circumstances, substance abuse), case factors (psychiatric injury secondary to physical injury, or secondary to psychological stresses), type of provider (mental health, or other), adequacy of evaluation and treatment, forensic psychiatrist's recommendation, and claim outcome were categorized. The relationships between case characteristics, adequacy of care, and claim outcome were described.Results22% of cases had adequate evaluation, 48% superficial, and 30% had no evaluation. 11% had adequate treatment, 67% superficial, and 22% had no treatment. Compared to claims for psychiatric disability related to a physical injury, claims related to psychosocial stresses more often had superficial diagnostic evaluations and treatments. Those with superficial treatment were less likely to have their claim granted (19.3%) than those with no treatment (47.5%) or those with adequate treatment (36.8%). Success of claim was not related to provider type.ConclusionsThe majority of the studied workers with employer-provided health insurance who sought workers' compensation for disability due to mental illness did so inappropriately, in that the workplace did not cause the psychopathology. Their seeking workers' compensation was plausibly due to the observed inadequate evaluation and treatment available through their employer-provided health insurance. The adequacy of their care influenced the likelihood their claim would be granted. The relations observed here merit further research to establish their generality and to determine their causes.