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181.
Erin Miller 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2012,28(1):77-101
Despite considerable speculation among terrorism researchers regarding the conditions leading to organizational desistance
from terrorism, quantitative analysis of terrorism frequently focuses on terrorist attacks as the unit of analysis, resulting
in a near complete absence of analyses of terrorist organizations themselves. Moreover, research on organizations that engage
in terrorism has generally been limited to case studies of individual organizations. Toward a more general understanding of
what conditions predict organizational desistance from terrorism, this study uses newly available data from the Global Terrorism
Database to analyze the terrorist activity of 557 organizations that were active for at least 365 days between 1970 and 2008.
Much like research on conventional crime, prior research on terrorism has focused almost exclusively on the onset of criminal
behavior and has neglected determinants of declining activity. Here I use group-based trajectory models to investigate patterns
of decline in organization-level terrorist activity. In particular I examine how patterns of onset relate to patterns of decline
among these organizations. I first estimate the trajectory models for the organizations’ frequency of attacks, and then calculate
the annual ratio of attacks to attacks-at-peak for each organization in order to isolate patterns of decline, independent
of the magnitude of activity. I then repeat the trajectory analysis to determine if the relative shape of the organizational
trajectory has significance beyond the overall frequency of attacks. I find that the speed and magnitude of an organization’s
emergence are correlated with its longevity such that those organizations characterized by rapid onset are two to three times
more likely than those characterized by moderate onset to reach moderate or high levels of attacks per year. Likewise, as
the rate and overall volume of attacks at onset increase, so does the likelihood that the group will follow a persistent pattern
of decline. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of patterns of decline among terrorist organizations for research
and policy. 相似文献
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Susan M. Miller 《Public administration》2017,95(3):623-637
Although scholars have assessed how the electoral connection of legislators and chief executives affects their support for performance measurement, we know less about how electoral considerations might influence agency administrators’ focus on performance measurement. I suggest that independently elected administrators’ attention to their agency's performance measurement system may be conditional on the likelihood that their efforts in this area will help them realize their electoral goals. Because there is a greater electoral incentive to focus on performance issues when government performance is deficient, elected administrators should be as likely as, if not more likely than, their non‐elected counterparts to focus on performance measurement when the government is performing poorly and less likely to do so when the government is performing well. I find evidence that supports this expectation. This article provides insight into the implications of electoral incentives for management decisions. 相似文献
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Benjamin Miller 《安全研究》2013,22(4):658-705
The Middle East is one of the most war-prone regions in the international system. What is the most powerful explanation of the war-propensity of this region? I argue that neither realism nor liberalism are able to account for variations in regional war-proneness. Instead, I advance an alternative explanation based on the concept of the state-to-nation balance in the region. This balance refers to the degree of congruence between the division of the region into territorial states and the national aspirations and political identifications of the region's peoples. The balance also refers to the prevalence of strong versus weak states in the region. Thus, I explain the Middle East's high war-proneness by focusing on its relatively low level of state-to-nation balance. This imbalance has led to a powerful combination of revisionist ideologies and state incoherence. While other regions suffer from state incoherence, powerful revisionist nationalist forces, notably pan-nationalist and irredentists (the “Greater State”), aggravate this problem in the Middle East. These revisionist forces are often transborder and are especially powerful in the Middle East because of the high degree of external/transborder incongruence in comparison with all other regions. The combination of nationalist revisionism and state incoherence has made the Middle East more prone to violence than most other regions. 相似文献
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