A Euro Breakup: Cardiac Arrest for Europe

Three years into the protracted Eurocrisis “all choices are ugly,” as former British prime minister Tony Blair comments. Indeed, the high cost of bad options is prompting some to question whether Europe is worth saving the euro. Along with Tony Blair, the former Italian prime minister Romano Prodi as well as two of the best financial minds around—Nouriel Roubini and Mohamed el‐Erian—warn of the dire consequences of a euro breakup. One of France's most prominent philosophers, André Glucksmann, wonders whether the idea of a united Europe—a reaction to the horrors of World War II—can hold everyone together in the future when peace is the norm.     

State Visits and Leader Survival

Why do political leaders travel abroad? In this article, we propose an informational mechanism linking in‐person diplomacy to leader survival. A foreign power visits an incumbent in order to reap a future policy concession; the visit is only worth the effort if the incumbent remains in power long enough to deliver on the deal. A diplomatic visit thus provides a visible and credible signal of the visitor's high confidence in the incumbent's stability in office. Domestic opponents, facing incomplete information as to the incumbent's strength, observe the signal and are deterred from mounting a challenge. Using data on U.S. diplomatic visits from 1960 to 2013, we find strong empirical support for our predictions: A visit with the U.S. president substantially reduces the risk of a leader's removal from office.     

Information exchange networks at the climate science‐policy interface: Evidence from the Czech Republic,Finland, Ireland,and Portugal

Scientifically informed climate policymaking starts with the exchange of credible, salient, and legitimate scientific information between scientists and policymakers. It is therefore important to understand what explains the exchange of scientific information in national climate policymaking processes. This article applies exponential random graph models to network data from the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, and Portugal to investigate which types of organizations are favored sources of scientific information and whether actors obtain scientific information from those with similar beliefs as their own. Results show that scientific organizations are favored sources in all countries, while only in the Czech Republic do actors obtain scientific information from those with similar policy beliefs. These findings suggest that actors involved in climate policymaking mostly look to scientific organizations for information, but that in polarized contexts where there is a presence of influential denialists overcoming biased information exchange is a challenge.     

Determination of Trace Elemental Concentrations in Document Papers for Forensic Comparison Using Inductively Coupled Plasma–Mass Spectrometry

Abstract:  With improvements in manufacturing procedures, comparing physical characteristics of paper samples may not offer sufficient discrimination among different vendors. In this work, the potential to differentiate paper samples based on trace element concentrations was investigated. Paper samples from two different vendors were microwave-digested and trace element concentrations (Mg, Al, Mn, Fe, Sr, Y, Ba, Ce, and Nd) were determined using inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry. Differences in concentration were assessed statistically using two-way ANOVA and Tukey's honestly significant differences test. Elemental concentrations were shown to be consistent across a single sheet as well as within a single ream of paper for each vendor. Reams from vendor A were differentiated based on Al and Ba concentration while reams from vendor B were differentiated based on Mg, Mn, and Sr concentrations. Paper was differentiated according to vendor based on significant differences in Ba, Sr, Ce, and Nd concentrations.     

Gender and general strain theory: A replication and exploration of Broidy and Agnew's gender/strain hypothesis among a sample of southwestern Mexican American adolescents

Based on recent theoretical and empirical advancements in general strain theory (GST) research, this study explored the possible extension of GST to explain both interpersonal aggression and property offending among Hispanic adolescents. More specifically, this study attempted to replicate the work of Piquero and Sealock (2004) by examining gender differences in GST-related processes that affect criminal behavior using self-report data from a large sample of southwestern Mexican American adolescents. Results from a series of multivariate models incorporating several measures of strain, negative affect, and coping resources provided partial support for Broidy and Agnew's (1997) gender/general strain hypotheses and produced relatively similar findings in terms of gender similarities/differences as reported by Piquero and Sealock (2004). Additional results also identified several significant three-way interaction effects once gender x negative emotion x conditioning factor interaction terms were simultaneously estimated. Possible theoretical modifications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

The limits of individual control? Perceived officer power and probationer compliance

Interactions between correctional agents and the offenders they supervise are assumed to be highly contingent upon latent power dynamics. Yet, currently there is little research that differentiates the bases of power used by correctional personnel. The present study drew on a classic typology to examine the role of power in probation supervision. Perceptions of power and their impact on probationers' compliance were examined using data collected from self-report surveys and case files of 376 misdemeanor probationers. Although the results for perceived power were similar to those of prior research, the current study's findings largely did not support the expected relationship between bases of power and compliance with the conditions of probation. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.     

Unemployment among women: examining the relationship of physical and psychological intimate partner violence and posttraumatic stress disorder

Prior research has demonstrated that intimate partner violence (IPV) is associated with employment instability among poor women. The current study assesses the broader relationship between IPV and women's workforce participation in a population-based sample of 6,698 California women. We examined past-year IPV by analyzing specific effects of physical violence, psychological violence, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms as predictors of unemployment. Results indicated substantial rates of unemployment among women who reported IPV, with rates of 20% among women who experienced psychological violence, 18% among women who experienced physical violence, and 19% among women with PTSD symptoms. When the relationship was adjusted for demographic characteristics and educational attainment, PTSD (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22, 2.09) and psychological violence (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI = 1.36, 2.32), but not physical violence, were associated with unemployment. Implications for supported employment programs and workplace responses to IPV are discussed.     

Sequential lineup presentation: Patterns and policy

Sequential lineups were offered as an alternative to the traditional simultaneous lineup. Sequential lineups reduce incorrect lineup selections; however, the accompanying loss of correct identifications has resulted in controversy regarding adoption of the technique. We discuss the procedure and research relevant to (1) the pattern of results found using sequential versus simultaneous lineups; (2) reasons (theory) for differences in witness responses; (3) two methodological issues; and (4) implications for policy decisions regarding the adoption of sequential lineups.     

Public policy and sequential lineups

The claim that sequential lineups are superior to simultaneous lineups and that our knowledge of sequential lineups is sufficient to warrant their being required by law is reviewed for the validity of both strong and weak claims of sequential superiority, adherence to principles of research design, and the needs of public policy. We conclude, (1) there is little evidence to support the claim that sequential presentation of photos is responsible for lower levels of false identifications, (2) the evidence is weak that the aggregation of factors commonly labeled as the sequential lineup together produce lower levels of false identifications without additional offsetting effects, (3) much of the literature contains several confounds in research design and additional offsetting effects that question its overall utility, (4) recent research shows that the superiority of sequential lineups is restricted to specific ranges on other study design variables, and (5) the corpus of research on sequential lineups does not satisfy the needs of policy sufficiently to justify its mandated use as the required identification procedure throughout the criminal justice system.