Rethinking the partisan effects of higher turnout: So what's the question?

Controversy persists over the link between turnout and the likelihood of success of Democratic candidates (e.g., DeNardo, 1980, 1986; Zimmer, 1985; Tucker and Vedlitz, 1986; Piven and Cloward, 1988; Texeira, 1992; Radcliff, 1994, 1995; Erikson, 1995a, b). We argue that the authors in this debate have largely been talking past one another because of a failure to distinguish three quite different questions. The first question is: “Are low turnout voters more likely to vote Democratic than high turnout voters?” The second question is: “Should we expect that elections in which turnout is higher are ones in which we can expect Democrats to have done better?” The third question is the counterfactual: “If turnout were to have increased in some given election, would Democrats have done better?” We show the logical independence of the first two questions from one another and from the third, and argue that previous researchers have failed to recognize this logical independence – sometimes thinking they were answering question three when in fact they were answering either question one or question two. Reviewing previous research, we find that the answer to the first question once was YES but, for more recent elections at the presidential level, now appears to be NO, while, for congressional and legislative elections, the answer to the second question appears generally to be NO. However, the third question is essentially unanswerable absent an explicit model of why and how turnout can be expected to increase, and/or analyses of individual level panel data. Thus, the cross-sectional and pooled data analyses of previous research are of almost no value in addressing this third question.

     

Addressing urban poverty: Increasing incomes,reducing costs,and securing representation

The paper considers the effectiveness of different strategies used in urban areas by development agencies to reduce poverty, including the relative merits of income generation and housing and neighbourhood improvement. Drawing on the findings of recent case studies, it suggests that the advantages of housing and neighbourhood improvements may have been underestimated, and that too little attention has been given to integrating housing and neighbourhood improvement with income generation.     

Family Variables that Mediate the Relation Between Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) and Child Adjustment

This study examined the mediating roles of several family variables in the relation between IPV witnessing and children’s emotional and behavioral problems among 129 low-income, African American children ages 8 to 12. According to the mediational model tested, experiencing or witnessing IPV negatively impacted the following family variables: maternal psychopathology, family cohesion, and relatedness quality, which were subsequently associated with diminished child adjustment. These findings were stronger when child reports were considered and when the outcome variable was internalizing problems. Findings from this study support the value of targeting these variables in the development of culturally appropriate child witness interventions for low-income African American families. Recommendations for future interventions based on study conclusions are offered.