Balancing police budgets and decision making: an experiment in disentanglement

Abstract: In examining the relationship between municipal and provincial government authority over policing in Ontario, this article explores a specific project which has generated a substantial amount of interest, and controversy, around the issue of control of municipal police budgets. It will further scrutinize the process undertaken by the Expert Panel on Municipal Police Services Budgets in developing and advancing its recommendations as an interesting and instructive innovation in government decision making. The article will summarize and elaborate on the work of the Expert Panel, formed in March 1992, as the first enterprise in the disentanglement process embarked on by the Ontario provincial government, in partnership with the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, to review and rationalize a wide spectrum of provincial/local relationships with an aim to achieve greater efficiency, effectiveness, and client service. The issue of financial control over municipal police services is one of considerable importance in Ontario to both the municipal sector and the policing community. By considering the work of the Expert Panel as an exercise in disentanglement, within the context of the “vigilant problem-solving approach” formulated by Irving Jnnis, this article attempts to provide specific insight and guidance to other practitioners in the realm of public policy making, as well as to capture the processes and proceedings of this particular undertaking. Sommaire: Cet article examine le rapport entre les autorités provinciales et municipales qui exercent le contrôle de la police en Ontario; il s'intéresse à un projet particulier qui a suscité discussion et controverse en ce qui concerne le contrôle des budgets municipaux de police. Il examine par ailleurs le processus entrepris par le groupe d'experts en matière de budgets municipaux de services policiers pour formuler ses recommandations, processus qui constitue une innovation intéressante et instructive pour la prise de décisions gouvernementales. L'article résume et analyse le travail du groupe d'experts mis sur pied en mars 1992, première étape du processus de démêlement des rôles entrepris par le gouvernement de l'Ontario, en partenariat avec l'Association des municipalités de l'Ontario, afin d'examiner et de rationaliser une vaste gamme de relations provinciales-locales pour augmenter l'efficacité et améliorer le service à la clientèle. La question du contrôle financier des services policiers municipaux revêt beaucoup d'importance en Ontario, tant pour le secteur municipal que pour la collectivité policière. En considérant le travail du groupe d'experts comme étant un exercice de démêlement des rôles, dans le contexte de “ l'approche vigilante de résolution de problèmes ” formulée par Irving Janis, cet article essaie d'offrir aux autres praticiens de la prise de décisions publiques à la fois des explications et des façons de faire, tout en cernant les processus et méthodes de cet effort particulier.     

Choosing appropriate techniques for socio-political forecasting

After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples.     

The spatial distribution of public services: A structural model of voting,educational production,and the government's allocation of educational inputs

This essay analyzes the intrajurisdictional allocation of public resources by a governmental agency, using education as the example. The agency's decision is guided, in part, by the pReferences of voters within each subarea of the jurisdiction. Voter's choices are influenced by the likely allocation of additional resources resulting from passage of a tax levy, and the tax cost of the levy. After deriving predictions of the relationships between the variables of the model, we estimate a simultaneous equation system. Included are equations specifying the educational production function, voting decisions, and bureaucratic resource allocation. This essay also notes the biases present in prior studies that only considered the ‘demand side’ of voting models.     

Detection of malingering in competency to stand trial evaluations

A simulation design with multiple contrast groups was used to test the effectiveness of two instruments, the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms (SIRS) and the Georgia Court Competency Test—Mississippi State Hospital (GCCT-MSH) in detecting malingering of competency to stand trial. Thirty simulators were compared with 23 incompetent defendants, 25 competent defendants, 30 offender controls, and 7 suspected malingerers on both instruments. Results revealed that the simulators and suspected malingerers scored significantly higher on all of the SIRS primary scales and significantly lower on the GCCT-MSH than the three comparison groups. The SIRS had an overall hit rate of 97.8% using three or more primary scales as the criterion for malingering. Information concerning the simulator's strategies of deception is presented.     

The Consummate Comparative Public Administrationist: A Tribute to Ferrel Heady, 1916–2006

Ferrel Heady died on August 16, 2006, at his home in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Together with Fred Riggs, he is widely known and respected as one of the founders of comparative public administration. In this tribute to our friend and colleague, we touch on the highlights of his distinguished career as a scholar, an academic administrator, and a person who lived up to his own high standards of honesty and integrity in every aspect of his life. We assess his body of work, attempt to summarize its significance, and reproduce comments about him sent to us by his friends and colleagues. This tribute is accompanied by reflections on Ferrel written by Fred Riggs.