Opposites Do Not Attract: The Impact of Domestic Institutions, Power, and Prior Commitments on Alignment Choices

States that choose to involve themselves in an ongoing dispute do so by choosing to align with or against one of the original disputants. What factors lead states to prefer to help one side over the other? We consider the effect of the disputants' power, political and economic institutional similarities between each disputant and the aligning state, and formal alliance commitments between each disputant and the aligning state on these alignment choices. We evaluate these expectations empirically by examining the alignment choices of states that joined with one side or another in a Militarized Interstate Dispute during the period of 1816 to 1986. The results indicate that regardless of regime type, institutional similarities matter to the aligning state's decision. We also find that power concerns matter only to autocracies; democracies do not seem to base their alignment choices on the power of the sides in the dispute. Finally, the evidence indicates that the alignment choices of democracies cannot be anticipated by their prior alliance commitments, although the alignment choices of autocracies can. These results suggest interesting implications for research on the democratic peace, the determinants of threat in the international system, and the impact of selection effects. The consistent empirical evidence that institutional similarity affects alignment decisions also increases our confidence that future investigations of institutional similarity generally, rather than an exclusive focus on joint democracy, will prove fruitful.     

Narcotics use,property crime,and dealing: Structural dynamics across the addiction career

Structural-equation modeling is used to test causal relationships between narcotics addiction and the associated cost-support activities of property crime and drug dealing across four critical periods of the addiction career. It is argued that structural-equation methodology yields greater insight into the causal dynamics of such activities than the typical methodologies of comparing means and proportions. Using structural coefficients of longitudinal models to infer causal relationships and stability, it is found that (1) dealing is often a predictor of future narcotics involvement; (2) narcotics use, property crime, and dealing are mutually interrelated during periods of elevated narcotics use and are not related during periods of reduced narcotics use; (3) dealing appears to be the most stable of the three variables, although narcotics use and property crime show appreciable stability as well; and (4) property crime and dealing appear to be inversely related to a moderate extent. The relevance of these findings to the understanding of the economic behavior of addicts during the initiation and cessation of addiction, relapse, and maturing out is discussed.     

Between knowledge and politics: Three faces of policy analysis

Various conceptual schemes have been employed to make sense of the diverse policy literature. Attempting to understand policy analysis in terms of its political and historical significance, this essay points to three distinct faces, distinguished with regard to differing relationships between knowledge and politcs: one where knowledge purports to replace politics, one where politics masquerades as knowledge, and one where knowledge and politics attain a measure of reconciliation. Historically, these three faces may be viewed, to an extent, as periods in the development of policy analysis: from positivism, to its critique, to present post-positivist efforts.     

Wischnewski revisited. The diagnostic value of gastric mucosal ulcers in hypothermic deaths

Hypothermia is defined as a subnormal body temperature. In this article, hypothermia refers to the loss of core temperature from exposure. When death results from hypothermia, a series of gastric mucosal erosions known as "Wischnewski ulcers" (1) frequently occur. In examining case material of the Onondaga County Medical Examiner's Office, a characteristic pattern of these ulcerations was seen that was indicative of severe physiologic stress and/or hypothermia. While not pathognomonic of hypothermia, the incidence of the erosions in a specific pattern has been closely associated with deaths in which hypothermia played a significant role. In hypothermia, the erosions, usually shallow and approximately 0.1-0.5 cm in diameter, are set in lines with roughly equidistant spacing, thereby forming a pattern of rectangles with the corners marked by the ulcerations.     

A proposed system of program and policy evaluation

Abstract. The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual framework which integrates and renders operational the govemmenal decision-making functions of policy and program evaluation, strategic planning, and pnon problem identification. Meeting this objective involves three tasks: (1) identifying ministerial goals and classdying those with similar characteristics into ‘goal areas’ (2) specifying statistical indicators suitable for measuring the extent to which particular goals are being realized, and estimating values for these goal achievement indicators assuming no change in policy; (3) identifying policy instruments that affect goals, and estimating changes in goal achievement indicators associated with changes in these instruments. Sommaire. Le préent document a pour but d'exposer un cadre de travail con-ceptuel qui intègre et rend opérationnelles les fonctions gouvemementales de prise de décisions, c'est-à-dire I'évaluation des programmes et des politiques, la planification à long terme et le repérage des problèmes prioritaires. La réalisation de cet objectif comporte trois tâhes: (1) identifier les ob'ectif s du ministère et classer ceux qui sont semblables en ‘groupes d'objectifs’ 12) isoler des indi-cateurs statistiques apes à mesurer jusqu'à quel point les objectifs sont réalisés et accorder me valeur estimative à ces indicateurs en supposant que les plitiques ne changent as; (3) repérer les instruments de politique qui influent sur les objectifs et évaluer les changements dans les indicateurs de réalisation des objectifs reliés aux changements dans ces instruments.