Power Politics and Wars without States

In order to evaluate the applicability of power politics theories of war and international stability to interactions among nonstate actors, I test hypotheses from power transition theory and from neorealist arguments about systemic polarity against the behavior of 20 state and nonstate actors in nineteenth‐century South America. I find considerable support for two of the three hypotheses tested and conclude that existing IR theory has more explanatory power within the empirical domain of nonstate relations than critics of such theory claim.     

Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election

Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.     

Institutionalizing ambiguity: the management review group and the reshaping of the defence policy process in Canada

Abstract: The Department of National Defence (dnd) and the Canadian Armed Forces (CF) have been the subject of many studies intended to elicit a better return from defence efforts. None of these studies have been at all comprehensive. The 1971 white paper, Defence in the 70s, introduced a new study aimed at “ensuring maximum effectiveness” in DND. The 1972 Management Review Group (MRC) report changed the entire administrative structure of DND and the CF, introduced new concepts for management, and shifted the power structure of the central bureaucracy. By the end of 1972, DND and the CF had a new set of principal actors, a new administrative structure, and a new policy process. To some the changes were more significant than previous unification reforms. The mrc report stands in sharp contrast to other studies because it has not been available to officials, scholars, or the public. Yet an awareness of die concepts that underlie the recommendations of the MRG is fundamental to understanding why the National Defence Headquarters exists and functions as it does today and why some issues are advanced over others. Sommaire: Le ministére de la Défense nationale (MDN) et les Forces armées cana-diennes (FC) ont fait l'objet de nombreuses “études” visant à accroître le rendement des efforts faits dans le domaine de la défense. Aucune de ces études n'est exhaustive. Le livre blanc de 1971, s'intitulant La défense dans les années 70, présentait une nouvelle étude dont l'objectif était “d'assurer une efficacité maximale” au sein du MDN. Le rapport de 1972 du Management Review Group (MRG) a modifyé toute la structure administrative du MDN et des FC, a introduit de nouveaux concepts de gestion et a entraîné un déplacement des pouvoirs de la bureaucratie centrale. Vers la fin de 1972, le MDN et les FC étaient dotés de nouveaux acteurs principaux, d'une nouvelle structure administrative et de nouvelles méthodes d'établissement de politique. Pour certains, ces changements ont été plus importants que les précédentes réformes d'unification. Contrairement aux autres études, le rapport du MRG n'a pas été mis à la disposition des responsables, des intellectuels ou du public. II est pourtant essentiel de con-naître les concepts sur lesquels s'appuient les recommandations du MRG si Ton veut comprendre pourquoi le Quartier général de la Défense nationale est ce qu'il est aujourd'hui, son mode de fonctionnement et les raisons pour lesquelles certaines questions ont pris le pas sur d'autres.