Using local longitudinal records to estimate transient and resident homeless populations

Abstract

Many local agencies that provide services to the homeless have only limited data and resources to estimate the extent of need or the size of the local population at risk of requiring the services they provide. Methods exist, however, that are capable of providing reasonable estimates of underlying service populations with minimal record keeping. In this paper one group of such models, first‐capture models, is discussed as a resource‐efficient technique for estimating the underlying population consistently at risk ("residents") and those occasionally at risk ("transients") of requiring agency services.     

Mapping Urban Revitalization: Using GIS Spatial Analysis to Evaluate a New Housing Policy

This longitudinal, multimethod study uses geographical information system (GIS) software to evaluate the community-wide impact of a neighborhood revitalization project. Unsystematic visual examination and analysis of GIS maps are offered as a complementary tool to quantitative analysis and one that is much more compelling, meaningful, and effective in presentation to community and nonscientific professional audiences. The centerpiece of the intervention was the development of a new, middle-class housing subdivision in an area that was declining physically and economically. This represents three major urban/housing policy directions: (1) the emphasis on home ownership for working-class families, (2) the deconcentration of poverty through development of mixed-income neighborhoods, and (3) the clean up and redevelopment of contaminated, former industrial brownfields. Resident survey responses, objective environmental assessment observations, and building permit data were collected, geocoded at the address level, and aggregated to the block level on 60 street blocks in the older neighborhoods surrounding the new housing in two waves: during site clearing and housing construction (Time 1: 1993–95) and three years post-completion (Time 2: 1998–99). Variables mapped include (a) Time 1–2 change in self-reported home repairs and improvements, (b) change in the assessed physical condition of yards and exteriors of 925 individual residential properties, (c) change in residents' home pride, and (d) a city archive of building permits at Time 2. Physical conditions improved overall in the neighborhood, but spatial analysis of the maps suggest that the spillover effects, if any, of the new housing were geographically limited and included unintended negative psychological consequences. Results argue for greater use of GIS and the street block level in community research and of psychological and behavioral variables in planning research and decisions.     

Political Homophily and Collaboration in Regional Planning Networks

We study the extent of political homophily—the tendency to form connections with others who are politically similar—in local governments’ decisions to participate in an important form of intergovernmental collaboration: regional planning networks. Using data from a recent survey of California planners and government officials, we develop and test hypotheses about the factors that lead local governments to collaborate within regional planning networks. We find that local governments whose constituents are similar politically, in terms of partisanship and voting behavior, are more likely to collaborate with one another in regional planning efforts than those whose constituents are politically diverse. We conclude that political homophily reduces the transaction costs associated with institutional collective action, even in settings where we expect political considerations to be minimal.     

Postmodern War in the Age of Bush II

This study charts the genealogy and development of new trends in high-tech warfare that have emerged in the past decade, focusing on both the challenges and dangers. Attention is devoted to the Bush administration's military program and foreign policy moves, highlighting the ways Bush II intensifies the dangers of high-tech war while undermining efforts at collective security, environmental protection, and global peace. The argument here is that the volatile mixture of highly regressive, unilateralist, and militarist tendencies combined with high-tech weapons provides a clear and present danger of a protracted and frightening period of war. This mixture dramatically erupted in Bush's military response to the terrorist attacks of September 11 and is currently intensifying dangers to world peace in the campaign some are labeling "World War III."     

US anti‐terrorism policies: Lessons to be learned to meet an enduring and changing threat

The evolution of United States anti‐terrorism policies has been marked by inconsistency and the lack of a unity of action. The declaratory no ransom policy enunciated by President Nixon has been constantly violated. In addition, the absence of a consensus on the nature of terrorism has been exacerbated by bureaucratic turf battles. This debate has created negative administrative and operational impacts on the organizations that are responsible for meeting the terrorist threat. Bureaucratically, despite the attempt to coordinate action through the lead agency concept, Washington's anti‐terrorism mechanism remain unnecessarily complex. Furthermore, different operational approaches to combating terrorism have impeded the development of an integrated counter‐terrorism capability. The need for streamlining has become critical in the rapidly transforming international arena. The use of terrorism by governments who seek regional hegemony and the development of the ‘Gray Area Phenomenon’ where non‐state actors employ terrorism as a means of realizing their objectives will challenge Washington's resolve. The political leadership faces the task of reconciling the present budgetary constraints with the requirements to identify and effectively respond to future threats.     

Reviews and commentary

Lifting bob Woodward's veil

Bob Woodward : VEIL : The Secret Wars of the CIA 1981–1987 Simon &; Schuster, New York, 1987, 543 p., $21.95.

His “Cover” Is Undercover

Steve Posner: Israel Undercover: Secret Warfare &; Hidden Diplomacy in the Middle East Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, N.Y., 1987, 350 p., $17.95.

Democracy and Intelligence: An Uneasy Compatibility

Stephen J. Cimbala, ed.: Intelligence and Intelligence Policy in a Democratic Society Transnational Publishers, Dobbs Ferry, N.Y., 262 p., $37.50.

A Much‐Needed Primer

Herbert E. Meyer: R eal‐ World In teltigence. Weidenfeld &; Nicolson, New York, 1987, 102 p., $14.95.

Agee Finds Two Friends

Jonathan Bloch and Patrick Fitzgerald (introduction by Philip Agee): British Intelligence and Covert Action Brandon Book Publishers Ltd., Kerry, Ireland, 1983, 284 p., PB, $9.95.

Questionable Secrets‐Questionable Sources

Fabrizio Calviand Olivier Schmidt: Intelligences secretes — Annales de l'espionnage Hachette, Paris, 1988, 309 p., 148 Fr. fr.

Scaling the Wall

Vladimir Solovyov and Elena Klepikova: Behind the High Kremlin Walls Dodd, Mead, New York, 1986, 248 p., $17.95.

The USSR As a Counterintelligence State

John J. Dziak: Chekisty: A History of the KGB Heath/Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 1988, 234 p., $17.95.     

Demobilization of Paramilitaries in Colombia: Transformation or Transition?

Historically, Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reinsertion (DDR) has provided a useful means to terminate conflicts. Since being catapulted to office in August 2002 with 53 percent of the vote of 46.45 percent of the voters, ¹ 1. IFES Election Guide, available at (http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID=1011). Colombian President Álvaro Uribe has vigorously pursued a demobilization program, both individual and collective. However, despite the fact that over 40,000 combatants have demobilized under these programs, evidence is growing that this latest round of Colombian DDR is merely transitioning, rather than terminating, violence in that Andean country.