Mapping the Risk Terrain for Crime Using Machine Learning

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - We illustrate how a machine learning algorithm, Random Forests, can provide accurate long-term predictions of crime at micro places relative to other popular...     

The effectiveness of various strategies to improve DNA analysis of formaldehyde-damaged tissues from embalmed cadavers for human identification purposes

Formalin-fixed tissues provide the medical and forensic communities with alternative and often last resort sources of DNA for identification or diagnostic purposes. The DNA in these samples can be highly degraded and chemically damaged, making downstream genotyping using short tandem repeats (STRs) challenging. Therefore, the use of alternative genetic markers, methods that pre-amplify the low amount of good quality DNA present, or methods that repair the damaged DNA template may provide more probative genetic information. This study investigated whether whole genome amplification (WGA) and DNA repair could improve STR typing of formaldehyde-damaged (FD) tissues from embalmed cadavers. Additionally, comparative genotyping success using bi-allelic markers, including INDELs and SNPs, was explored. Calculated random match probabilities (RMPs) using traditional STRs, INDEL markers, and two next generation sequencing (NGS) panels were compared across all samples. Overall, results showed that neither WGA nor DNA repair substantially improved STR success rates from formalin-fixed tissue samples. However, when DNA from FD samples was genotyped using INDEL and SNP-based panels, the RMP of each sample was markedly lower than the RMPs calculated from partial STR profiles. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that rather than attempting to improve the quantity and quality of severely damaged and degraded DNA prior to STR typing, a more productive approach may be to target smaller amplicons to provide more discriminatory DNA identifications. Furthermore, an NGS panel with less loci may yield better results when examining FD samples, due to more optimized chemistries that result in greater allelic balance and amplicon coverage.     

GDP Revisions and Updating Statistical Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reports from the Statistical Offices in Nigeria,Liberia and Zimbabwe

Abstract

The quality of economic statistics in Africa has been likened to a statistical tragedy. Currently many statistical systems in Africa are being updated. This report from the statistical offices in Nigeria, Liberia and Zimbabwe documents that base year, data and methods used to generate GDP estimates currently date from 1990, 1992 and 1994. There is a growing need for macroeconomic statistics, but a rebasing of GDP estimates is costly and time consuming. The work to update economic statistics in Nigeria and Zimbabwe is still ongoing, while efforts to generate an authoritative estimate of the Liberian economy have proved unsuccessful.     

Constructing and contesting City of London power: NGOs and the emergence of noisier financial politics

Existing literature on the City of London has tended to focus on its ‘structural power’, while neglecting political and narrative agency. This paper acts as a corrective by presenting evidence to show that since the financial crash of 2008 the political terrain the City operates on has become more contested, crowded and noisier. The contribution develops a middle course between a positive assessment of the role of civil society in relation to global finance, and a more pessimistic reading. We demonstrate how macro-narratives and public story-telling both construct and contest City and financial sector power. In a new pattern since the financial crash, NGOs have moved from campaigns of limited duration and narrow focus, to a more sustained presence on macro-structural issues. Adopting a supply–demand framework for assessing governance and regulatory change, we look at the emergence of TheCityUK as a new advocacy arm and the strategies of three of the more prominent and focused NGOs that have mobilized in the aftermath of the crash: the Tax Justice Network’s (TJN) use of the ‘finance curse’; Positive Money on private endogenous money creation; and Finance Watch counterweight strategies at the level of the European Union. We suggest these mobilizations highlight the need for a more concerted and orchestrated construction of a global institutional civil society infrastructure in finance (a global financial public sphere) to achieve greater access, resources, scrutiny and oversight for a range of specialist expert NGOs.     

Youth Substance Use and Body Composition: Does Risk in One Area Predict Risk in the Other?

Both substance use and obesity are prevalent among youth. As youth age, substance use rates increase and over the past three decades, obesity rates among youth have tripled. While these two factors have both short- and long-term health impacts, little research has explored how substance use and obesity among youth may be related. This study explores the bi-directional longitudinal relationships between substance use and body composition. Participants (N = 704; 50.7% female) were mostly white (86.4%) with a baseline mean age of 14.7 years. Objectively measured body composition was used to calculate body mass index z-scores (BMI z-score) and percent body fat. Cross-lagged structural equation models, accounting for clustering at the school level, were run to determine the longitudinal association between body composition and self-reported substance use (alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana), adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, pubertal status, and weight satisfaction. Baseline alcohol use predicted decreased BMI z-score at follow-up and a similar association with percent body fat approached significance. Baseline cigarette use predicted increased percent body fat. No longitudinal associations were seen between baseline body composition and future substance use. Our results suggest that substance use contributes to subsequent body composition; however, body composition does not contribute to subsequent substance use. Continued research that explores these relationships longitudinally is greatly needed.     

Exploring the influences on Australian agricultural professionals’ genetic engineering beliefs: an empirical analysis

This paper analyses what influences professionals’ beliefs on agricultural genetic engineering. A telephone survey was conducted in 2004 on Australian public agricultural professionals. Using an ordered probit regression, some of the significant key influences on overall beliefs were: age; research relevance; ethnicity; farm background; information and occupational effects; attitudes towards the current sustainability of conventional agriculture; attitudes towards agricultural research issues; and attitudes towards the individual aspects of genetic engineering. Somewhat surprisingly, subjective knowledge of genetic engineering was not a significant factor in influencing overall beliefs, although it did play a positive influence on some individual beliefs (such as the technology’s profitability benefits and that there is no need for more long-term research before further general release of genetically engineered products). However, more research on the links between actual knowledge and acceptance are needed before any definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Road User Fees Instead of Fuel Taxes: The Quest for Political Acceptability

In light of recent regulatory changes in federal fuel economy standards for cars and trucks, the consensus forecast is that motor fuel taxes will not be an adequate source of dedicated funding for roadway maintenance and construction. This article accepts the notion that mileage fees are a promising replacement for the fuel tax and considers steps that might be taken to enhance the political acceptability of such a reform. The authors argue that simple, low‐tech ways of implementing mileage fees are possible in the near term and should be complemented by a well‐developed audit mechanism. Current trends in the automotive and auto insurance industries as well as social media are likely to reduce opposition to more technologically advanced mileage taxes in the long run.