Veto Players and Civil War Duration

Civil wars show a remarkable variation in how long they last. Some end within days; others continue for decades. What explains the extreme intractability of some wars while others are resolved quickly? This article argues that conflicts with multiple actors who must approve a settlement (veto players) are longer because there are fewer acceptable agreements, information asymmetries are more acute, and shifting alliances and incentives to hold out make negotiation more difficult. This veto player approach to explaining variation in civil war duration is tested using a new dataset containing monthly data on all parties to each civil war begun since World War II. The statistical analysis shows a strong correlation between the number of veto players and the duration of civil war.     

Organic impurity profiling of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) tablets seized in The Netherlands.

In this study, a new method was developed for the impurity profiling of illicit MDMA tablets. The extraction efficiency, linearity, repeatability and reproducibility of the method were evaluated. Eighty two MDMA tablets coming from presumed unrelated large seizures in 2004 (n >500 tablets) were analyzed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS) in order to assess the discrimination power of the method. The latter was found to be practical, robust, relatively easy to perform, highly discriminative and yielding good chromatography. In addition, some new impurities were detected and identified. Their chemical structures and mass spectra are reported.     

A Longitudinal Study of Modifying Influences in the Relationship Between Domestic Violence and Child Maltreatment

The increased risk of child maltreatment in the presence of domestic violence is well documented, but much remains unknown about factors that modify this relationship. This study investigates the roles of risk and protective factors in the relationship between domestic violence and being reported to the Department of Social Services for child maltreatment. Consistent with the literature, we find a significant overlap between domestic violence and maltreatment. Young maternal age, low education, low income, and lack of involvement in a religious community add to the risk for maltreatment associated with domestic violence. Separation between the maternal caregiver and her partner significantly reduces the risk for maltreatment when domestic violence is reported. A significant reduction in the risk for maltreatment is also found with higher levels of support from the maternal caregiver reported by the child in the context of domestic violence.     

Logical evaluation of evidence when a person is suspected of committing two separate offences.

We consider the problem of drawing inferences within a legal framework when a person is a suspect for two separate offences. Although we are primarily concerned with scientific evidence the issue inevitably arises as to how that evidence interacts with other, non-scientific evidence. We show that, in this particular context, the evidence can be conveniently classified into three categories that concern, respectively: the first crime only; the second crime only; and evidence that relates to similarities between the two crimes. Two case examples are considered and we consider DNA, fibres and eyewitness evidence. These are viewed from the perspective of a prosecutor who has to decide whether or not to charge a suspect with one or both crimes. Graphical sensivity analyses are presented which have features that are not intuitively obvious.     

MEDIATIVE EVALUATIONS: THE PROS AND PERILS OF BLENDING ROLES

Child custody evaluators with experience in mediation may be tempted to use mediation skills and strategies in their evaluation processes. This article explores the benefits and risks of blending mediation with evaluation, comparing the perspectives of professionals and clients.     

PROFILE: CHILD CUSTODY MEDIATION SERVICES IN CALIFORNIA SUPERIOR COURTS

California is now in its 11th year of mandatory child custody mediation, with a current yearly case volume statewide estimated at 65,494. This article profiles the variations in programs and mediation styles in 56 of the state's 58 Superior Courts. Two research studies provide the basis for the information on program structures, case activity, procedures, agreement formats, recommendations, facilities, security, and fees.     

Long-term success in mediation

This article reports the results of a study of the antecedents of long-term success in community mediation. Seventy-three mediation sessions were recorded and content analyzed. The participants were interviewed at two points: immediately after mediation and 4 to 8 months later. No relationship was found between the quality of the agreements—i.e., the extent to which they solved immediate problems- and long-term success as measured by compliance, improved relations between the parties, and the absence of new problems. On the other hand, joint problem solving by the disputants was related to complainant perceptions of improved relations with the other party. Also respondent perceptions that the mediation had been fair and that all the problems had come out were related to all aspects of long-term success in the eyes of the complainant. The latter results support a procedural justice analysis of mediation and underline the importance of mediator attention to the respondent.     

West African Voices

A new literary programme has been started in the West AfricanService of the B.B.C., and this article is a reprint of oneof the talks. The Ibo speaker was formerly in the Customs, andqualified as a barrister last November: he is also the authorof numerous poems in English, and of a novel, The Prince ofUtete. The other two are schoolmasters working as Assistantsat the School of Oriental and African Studies. For technicalreasons, the orthography is not quite complete.